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TA&M

Texas A&M 23 at Alabama 45

ALA
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Nick Starkel pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:55: Jace Sternberger 15 Yd pass from Kellen Mond (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +1.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:50: Seth Small 52 Yd Field Goal — TA&M win probability +1.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 6:50: Hale Hentges 23 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +3.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:09: Hale Hentges 6 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +3.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:03: Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick) — ALA win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:50TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:10ALA 4th & 10 at TA&M 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:31TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:01ALA 4th & 24 at ALA 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:50TA&M 4th & 3 at ALA 35, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:24TA&M 4th & 7 at ALA 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:31ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 39, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:32TA&M 4th & 20 at TA&M 38, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:33TA&M 4th & 4 at ALA 8, down 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:17ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 27, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:30TA&M 4th & 18 at TA&M 34, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:08TA&M 4th & 5 at TA&M 40, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:02ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 39, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:03ALA 4th & 14 at TA&M 48, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 14:10ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:55TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:45ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:50ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:09ALA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:03ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:01ALA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:36TA&M Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:336% → 6%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted Mack Wilson return for no gain to the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
94.2%
DeVonta Smith 30 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:146% → 6%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
94.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 13Similar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+6
94.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 6 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+5
94.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 5 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 24
-2
94.0%
Kellen Mond sacked by Isaiah Buggs for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 22Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+15
93.9%
Braden Mann punt for 56 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 15 yds to the Alab 37 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jamey Mosley) to the Alab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:2594% → 94%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
93.8%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+15
93.8%
Harris, Damien rush for no gain to the ALABAMA32, PENALTY TEXASAM face mask (Madubuike, Justin) 15 yards to the ALABAMA47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
93.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 17 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
93.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+1
93.7%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the TexAM 36Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
93.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
93.5%
Skyler DeLong punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexAM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 4:057% → 9%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
93.4%
Kellen Mond run for 1 yd to the TexAM 2Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+12
93.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 12 yds to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
93.3%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 15Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+11
93.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 11 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 5
OWN 31
0
92.9%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+54
92.8%
Kellen Mond run for 54 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
92.4%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
91.1%
Jace Sternberger 15 Yd pass from Kellen Mond (Seth Small Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0392% → 92%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Hale HentgesSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
91.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
50
0
91.8%
Josh Jacobs run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
50
+4
91.6%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+25
91.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 10 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Donovan Wilson) to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
91.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+5
91.2%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 5 yds to the TexAM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
91.1%
Damien Harris run for 10 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Tua Tagovailoa 1 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:068% → 8%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.8%
Kellen Mond run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
91.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 13 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-6
91.4%
Kellen Mond sacked by Isaiah Buggs for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 16
OWN 35
0
91.7%
Kellen Mond run for no gain to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
91.7%
Braden Mann punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 2:1892% → 91%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
91.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ross Pierschbacher) to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+3
91.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 17
OWN 13
-3
91.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 20
OWN 10
-4
90.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 24
OWN 6
0
90.5%
Skyler DeLong punt for 51 yds, downed at the TexAM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0510% → 12%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
90.5%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Rogers, Kendrick, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Diggs, Trevon) 15 yards to the ALABAMA42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
90.0%
Trayveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+9
90.1%
Kellen Mond run for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-1
89.8%
Kellen Mond sacked by Christian Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+52
88.1%
Seth Small 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5289% → 92%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
88.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 20 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
89.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 21 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
89.7%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
89.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 5 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
89.2%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
92.4%
Hale Hentges 23 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:218% → 10%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
92.1%
Kellen Mond run for 34 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
91.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 6 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
90.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+16
91.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 16 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
91.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Kendrick Rogers, broken up by Patrick Surtain IISimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
91.4%
Kellen Mond run for 3 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
91.5%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
90.3%
Seth Small 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1591% → 95%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
90.6%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
90.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+52
90.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 52 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
91.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 12 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
91.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the TexAM 6Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.0%
Hale Hentges 6 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:416% → 7%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.8%
Kellen Mond run for 6 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
93.5%
Kellen Mond run for 11 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
92.6%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted Patrick Surtain II return for 20 yds to the ALABAMA 38 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:1595% → 95%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
94.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 17 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+47
95.1%
Joseph Bulovas 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:2695% → 96%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
95.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 16 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
96.1%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-4
96.2%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
96.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
95.9%
Skyler DeLong punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:536% → 5%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.4%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
94.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-10
94.8%
Kellen Mond sacked by Xavier McKinney for a loss of 10 yards to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 20
OWN 38
0
95.2%
Braden Mann punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:2596% → 99%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+21
96.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 21 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+42
96.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 42 yds to the TexAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
96.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 12 yds to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
96.6%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the TexAM 3Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.9%
Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:242% → 2%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 11 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
98.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 24 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
98.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 6 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-1
98.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+21
98.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 21 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
98.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
98.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jace SternbergerSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+6
98.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 6 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
98.0%
Seth Small 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1398% → 98%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.4%
Skyler DeLong punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:302% → 2%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
98.1%
Kellen Mond sacked by Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 14
OWN 38
0
98.3%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 14
OWN 38
-4
98.4%
Kellen Mond sacked by Isaiah Buggs and Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 18
OWN 34
+10
98.5%
Braden Mann punt for 61 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 10 yds to the Alab 44 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (7 Yards) to the Alab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
2 plays · 92 yds · 0:1499% → 100%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+35
98.9%
Damien Harris run for 35 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
99.9%
Henry Ruggs III 57 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Cullen Gillaspia for 5 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Kendrick RogersSimilar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Braden Mann punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
99.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 10 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
99.9%
Hurts, Jalen pass complete to Smith, DeVonta for 12 yards to the ALABAMA45, PENALTY ALABAMA holding 10 yards to the ALABAMA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+14
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 14 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-2
99.9%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Skyler DeLong punt for 50 yds, downed at the TexAM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 5:190% → 1%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
99.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 13Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+12
99.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 12 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.9%
Kellen Mond sacked by Isaiah Buggs and Johnny Dwight for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 21Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+26
99.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 26 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
99.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 10 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Quartney DavisSimilar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Trayveon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.9%
Mond, Kellen pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the 50 yardline (Anoma, Eyabi), PENALTY ALABAMA horse collar tackle (Anoma, Eyabi) 15 yards to the ALABAMA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
99.9%
Kellen Mond run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+20
99.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 20 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q4 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.1%
Kellen Mond run for 9 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 4:0999% → 100%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.4%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
99.5%
Najee Harris run for 19 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
99.5%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 48Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+8
99.5%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-8
99.6%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 48 Jalen Hurts fumbled, recovered by Alab Najee HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
99.6%
Skyler DeLong punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26Uncategorized
14 plays · 69 yds · 2:591% → 0%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
99.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+5
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Camron Buckley for 5 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+8
99.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 8 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Glenn BealSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+10
99.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 10 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Glenn BealSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kwame Etwi for 16 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 10 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 15 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Camron Buckley for 3 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
99.8%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:50
Hale Hentges 23 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
+3.2
TD · Q2 1:09
Hale Hentges 6 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
+3.1
TD · Q3 10:03
Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Run (Joseph Bulovas Kick)
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com