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VAN

Vanderbilt 17 at Notre Dame 22

ND
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:40 · Parker Thome punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior+23.9Home team on offense+5.6Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:33: Justin Yoon 33 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +3.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:15: Justin Yoon 46 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +2.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:11: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +17.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:04: Ian Book pass complete to Nic Weishar for 2 yds for a TD Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 11:04 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declined — ND win probability +11.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:22: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 18 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +22.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 10VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:02ND 4th & 8 at VAN 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00VAN 4th & 20 at VAN 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09ND 4th & 2 at ND 37, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:33VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:51ND 4th & 7 at ND 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:40VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:33ND 4th & 6 at VAN 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:15ND 4th & 4 at VAN 29, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.9%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:52VAN 4th & 12 at ND 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:52ND 4th & 19 at ND 41, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−2.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:47ND 4th & 1 at ND 10, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ND 4th & 1 at VAN 3, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.4%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−3.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−14.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:39ND 4th & 1 at VAN 14, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%−3.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−14.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:09VAN 4th & 4 at ND 31, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−4.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−9.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:12ND 4th & 14 at ND 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 2VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:58ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:11VAN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:04ND Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:22VAN Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 3:5884% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
84.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 19 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
84.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 8 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+17
84.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 17 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
84.1%
Brandon Wimbush run for 9 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+14
84.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 14 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
84.1%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the Vandy 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+12
84.1%
WIMBUSH, Brandon pass incomplete to BOYKIN, Miles, PENALTY VANDY pass interference (Williams, Joejuan) 12 yards to the VANDY2, 1ST DOWN ND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
84.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the Vandy 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
84.1%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 3Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
84.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 8Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase Claypool, broken up by Jordan GriffinSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
83.3%
Justin Yoon 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:5217% → 18%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
83.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 1 yd to the Vandy 9Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
83.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+12
83.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 12 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
83.2%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+17
83.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 17 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
83.1%
Khari Blasingame run for 6 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
83.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Vandy 47Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
82.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
82.3%
Parker Thome punt for 45 yds, downed at the NDame 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
15 plays · 94 yds · 5:2182% → 84%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
82.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 14 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
82.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
82.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 7 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+9
82.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Brock Wright for 9 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
82.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
82.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
82.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+24
82.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 24 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
82.9%
Jafar Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+2
82.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+8
82.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 8 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
82.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for no gain to the Vandy 12Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
82.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
84.2%
Brandon Wimbush run for 12 yds for a TD (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5816% → 16%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
83.8%
Cam Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+8
84.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 21
+1
84.4%
Parker Thome punt for 51 yds , Chris Finke returns for 1 yd to the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
83.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+6
83.7%
Jafar Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+6
83.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 6 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+1
83.8%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
83.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
84.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 17Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+2
84.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 2 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
84.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
84.6%
Parker Thome punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
84.0%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+4
84.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr for 4 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
83.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Michael YoungSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
83.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
84.2%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
84.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
84.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
84.8%
Parker Thome punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:1084% → 88%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
83.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 20 yds to the NOTREDAME 45 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, RO (Dayo Odeyingbo) to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
84.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 10 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
84.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 4 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
84.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
84.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
88.2%
Justin Yoon 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
87.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 18 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
87.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+20
86.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 20 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
86.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 9 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
85.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
86.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
85.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Donaven Tennyson for 20 yds Donaven Tennyson fumbled, forced by Alohi Gilman, recovered by NDame Julian LoveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:5589% → 91%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.7%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
88.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
88.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 7 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chris Finke, broken up by Zaire JonesSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
88.7%
Brandon Wimbush run for 10 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
89.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, roughing passer (Dayo Odeyingbo) to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
89.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-1
89.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+6
89.0%
Brandon Wimbush run for 6 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
90.7%
Justin Yoon 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 1:1511% → 15%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.1%
Khari Blasingame run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+26
88.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 26 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
87.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Joejuan Williams, broken up by Te'von ConeySimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
87.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Cam Johnson for 13 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
86.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+26
86.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 26 yds to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Donaven TennysonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
85.2%
Ryley Guay 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:0813% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
87.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 17 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
86.9%
Shurmur,Kyle pass incomplete to Lipscomb,Kalija (LOVE, Julian), PENALTY ND holding (PRIDE JR, Troy) 10 yards to the ND48, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
86.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
86.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
85.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+3
85.6%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 3 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+6
86.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trey Ellis for 6 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
85.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Khari BlasingameSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
85.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+3
87.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 3 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
88.9%
Ryley Guay 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
90.0%
Brandon Wimbush run for 11 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
90.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 9 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
90.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
50
-3
90.6%
Ian Book run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
90.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles Boykin, broken up by Joejuan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-6
89.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 19
OWN 41
+7
89.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 53 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 7 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15INT
6 plays · 51 yds · 0:0010% → 12%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
89.6%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 6 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+20
89.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Chris Pearce for 20 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
88.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 2 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
88.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+23
88.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 8 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, roughing passer (Julian Okwara) to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
87.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Troy Pride Jr. return for 1 yd to the NDame 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
91.5%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+5
91.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for 5 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+2
91.0%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+20
90.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 57 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 20 yds to the NDame 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:4412% → 30%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+30
88.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 30 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
87.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+11
87.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 11 yds to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.5%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0782% → 94%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Brandon Wimbush run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
82.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Miles Boykin for 14 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
83.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
84.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for 8 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.6%
Jafar Armstrong run for no gain to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+32
84.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 32 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
84.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+10
84.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 10 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
83.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Nic Weishar for 2 yds to the Vandy 3Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+1
82.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Nic Weishar for 2 yds for a TD Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 11:04 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:429% → 34%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
91.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 14 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
89.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 18 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
89.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
89.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Chris Pearce, broken up by Julian LoveSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
89.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Troy Pride Jr.Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 8
OPP 41
+15
89.9%
Shurmur,Kyle pass incomplete to Pearce,Chris, PENALTY ND pass interference (PRIDE JR, Troy) 15 yards to the ND26, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
88.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-1
88.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the NDame 12 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding (Kalija Lipscomb) to the NDame 22Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+4
88.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+18
66.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 18 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:4387% → 88%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
87.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 7 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+4
87.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
87.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 17 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
87.8%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
87.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the Vandy 17Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+3
86.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+32
87.8%
Justin Yoon 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 1:3023% → 19%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
76.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+26
74.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
50
0
68.9%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
50
0
70.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 10
50
0
72.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. BolarSimilar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 10
50
+13
84.1%
Shurmur,Kyle pass incomplete to Lipscomb,Kalija, PENALTY ND pass interference (VAUGHN, Donte) 13 yards to the ND37, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
78.1%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
74.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
77.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Troy Pride Jr.Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
80.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Jalen ElliottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:5595% → 95%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
94.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
95.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-10
95.3%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
94.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 63 yds, fair catch by Trey Ellis at the Vandy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 11 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
91.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Bolar for 13 yds to the Vandy 21 lat. to Jared Pinkney for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 21 lat. to Jared Pinkney for no gain Jared Pinkney fumbled, recovered by NDame Julian LoveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:22
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 18 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)
-22.2
TD · Q3 0:11
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q4 11:04
Ian Book pass complete to Nic Weishar for 2 yds for a TD Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 11:04 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declined
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com