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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:30 · Mitchell Crawford punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q1 4:06: Ty Chandler rush for 7 yards to the UTEP0, clock 04:06, PENALTY UT personal foul 15 yards to the UTEP22, NO PLAY. — UTEP win probability +0.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 15:00: Ryan Metz pass incomplete — UTEP win probability +0.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 9:04: Quardraiz Wadley rush for 3 yards to the UT30 (Darrell Taylor;Alexis Johnson Jr.), PENALTY UTEP holding (Ruben Guerra) 10 yards to the UT43, NO PLAY. — UTEP win probability +1.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:49: Ty Chandler run for 81 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:14: Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 4 yds for a TD TENNESSEE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 8 (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UTEP made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 15:00TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.5%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.5%average punt
- Q1 10:30UTEP 4th & 4 at TENN 46, tiedClose callPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.3%48% to convertField goal3.1%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call3.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:20TENN 4th & 3 at UTEP 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.8%53% to convertField goal96.7%−0.142% to makePunt96.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:39TENN 4th & 21 at UTEP 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snapGo for it94.9%−0.28% to convertField goalTheir call95.1%74% to makePunt94.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q2 13:31UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 2, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q2 10:49UTEP 4th & 15 at UTEP 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q2 9:04UTEP 4th & 16 at TENN 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.216% to convertField goal5.0%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q2 7:53TENN 4th & 6 at UTEP 39, up 10Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.7%40% to convertField goal94.5%−0.236% to makePuntTheir call94.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:53UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 22, down 10Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:40TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 35, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.6%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q3 13:49UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 44, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q3 11:16TENN 4th & 9 at UTEP 46, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.232% to convertField goal96.1%−0.523% to makePuntTheir call96.6%average punt
- Q3 7:30UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 12, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q3 5:43TENN 4th & 9 at UTEP 45, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it97.1%−0.132% to convertField goal96.7%−0.525% to makePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q3 2:58UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 30, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.818% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q4 11:07UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 41, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 8:23TENN 4th & 2 at UTEP 49, up 24Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:56UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 13, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q2 10:49TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:49TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:14TENN Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTENNDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 11 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
98.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson, broken up by Kahani SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
98.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 33 yds , Terry Juniel returns for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 2:552% → 2%
Q1 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
98.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Keynan Foster for 7 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.0%
Quardraiz Wadley rush for loss of 1 yard to the UTEP35 (Daniel Bituli), PENALTY UT offside defense (Alexis Johnson Jr.) 5 yards to the UTEP41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Forest McKee for 2 yds Forest McKee fumbled, forced by Bryce Thompson, , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
97.6%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3FG17 plays · 60 yds · 7:4198% → 96%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
97.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 11 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+8
97.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 8 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
97.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Dominick Wood-Anderson for 10 yds to the UTEP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
96.7%
Ty Chandler rush for 7 yards to the UTEP0, clock 04:06, PENALTY UT personal foul 15 yards to the UTEP22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
-5
96.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, delay of game (Jarrett Guarantano) to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
+4
96.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 4 yds to the UTEP 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 2:394% → 4%
Q1 2:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
96.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for no gain to the UTEP30 (Nigel Warrior), PENALTY UTEP illegal motion (Walter Dawn Jr.) 5 yards to the UTEP25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
95.7%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete UTEP Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5Uncategorized2 plays · 62 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
UTEPDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 13:31
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+13
95.7%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 47 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for 13 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD3 plays · 36 yds · 1:0495% → 96%
Q2 11:53
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+29
95.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 29 yds to the UTEP 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 10:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.0%
Kai Locksley sacked by Daniel Bituli for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 20Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-2
96.1%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 45 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 33 Marquez Callaway fumbled, recovered by UTEP TK PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
95.2%
Quardraiz Wadley rush for 3 yards to the UT30 (Darrell Taylor;Alexis Johnson Jr.), PENALTY UTEP holding (Ruben Guerra) 10 yards to the UT43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 20
OPP 43
0
95.5%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Keynan Foster, broken up by Shawn ShamburgerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 41 yds · 0:0095% → 96%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
95.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 14 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-8
95.8%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Dylan Parsee for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 48Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+9
95.4%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 9 yds to the UTEP 39 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:455% → 5%
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
94.9%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Warren Redix for 9 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q2 1:40
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-9
94.7%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Tenn 38 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive holding (Drew Richmond) to the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 17 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
94.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Keynan Foster for 14 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
TENNDrive 15TD1 play · 81 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:003% → 3%
TENNDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez Callaway, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
97.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 13 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+1
96.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Madre London for 1 yd to the UTEP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 5:43
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
97.5%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson, broken up by Chris RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 1:273% → 3%
Q3 4:25
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+15
97.2%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to David Lucero (Nigel Warrior), PENALTY UT roughing passer (Matthew Butler) 15 yards to the UTEP34, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
97.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Winston Dimel for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 32Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+1
97.3%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 1 yd to the UTEP 33Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-3
97.3%
Kai Locksley sacked by Darrin Kirkland Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 30Similar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
97.3%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21TD11 plays · 71 yds · 5:1098% → 100%
Q3 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-6
97.9%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Mike Sota for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+13
97.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Dominick Wood-Anders (Dylan Parsee), PENALTY UTEP pass interference (Dylan Parsee) 13 yards to the UTEP45, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+10
98.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 10 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 4 yds for a TD TENNESSEE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 8 (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-2
99.3%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Winston Dimel for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 37Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to David Lucero for 4 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
99.3%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 37 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-1
99.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Brandon Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TENNDrive 25END OF GAME6 plays · 33 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:49
Ty Chandler run for 81 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q4 11:14
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 4 yds for a TD TENNESSEE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 8 (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+1.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 9:04
Quardraiz Wadley rush for 3 yards to the UT30 (Darrell Taylor;Alexis Johnson Jr.), PENALTY UTEP holding (Ruben Guerra) 10 yards to the UT43, NO PLAY.
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