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ALA

Alabama 62 at Ole Miss 7

MISS
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:35 · Armani Linton run for no gain to the Miss 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:43: Najee Harris run for 10 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:40: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 12 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:36: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 22 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:55: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 13 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 11:49: Joseph Bulovas 20 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:48MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50MISS 4th & 5 at ALA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:56MISS 4th & 13 at ALA 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:52ALA 4th & 4 at MISS 20, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:02MISS 4th & 7 at ALA 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:30MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:47MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 10, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:49ALA 4th & 2 at MISS 2, up 42
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:57MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 30, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:32MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 24, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:55ALA 4th & 1 at MISS 18, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:16ALA 4th & 20 at MISS 26, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:20MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, down 55
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:45ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 21, up 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:09MISS 4th & 7 at ALA 42, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:01ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 21, up 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:49MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:39ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:51ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:43ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 4:40ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:18ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:36ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:55ALA Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:04ALA Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
6.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 75 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:5694% → 93%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
6.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 17 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
6.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 12 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
6.7%
Damien Harris run for 43 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:457% → 7%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.8%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
6.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
6.9%
Mac Brown punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:0193% → 93%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
7.0%
Damien Harris run for 7 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
7.1%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
7.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 1 yd Henry Ruggs III fumbled, forced by Jalen Julius, recovered by Miss C.J. MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:408% → 8%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
7.6%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
7.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+5
7.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Quinnen Williams) to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
7.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
7.7%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5392% → 93%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
7.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
7.7%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+79
7.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 79 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:348% → 8%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
7.5%
Scottie Phillips run for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
7.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
7.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 11 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
7.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 5 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+13
8.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 13 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
8.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
8.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 9 yds to the Alab 38 Jordan Ta'amu fumbled, recovered by Alab Phidarian MathisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:1792% → 93%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
7.7%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 13 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
7.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
7.8%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+15
8.0%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 15 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
8.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 18 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
7.1%
Najee Harris run for 10 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
7.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted Deionte Thompson return for 40 yds to the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:4093% → 94%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
7.2%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
7.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
5.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 12 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:346% → 6%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
6.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
6.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 12 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
6.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 17 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
6.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (D.K. Metcalf) to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
6.2%
Isaiah Woullard run for no gain to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-10
6.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 25
OWN 47
-3
6.1%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Christian Miller for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 28
OWN 44
+5
6.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 23
OWN 49
+10
6.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 10 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
6.1%
Mac Brown punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:5195% → 95%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
5.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
5.5%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
5.4%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 15 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
5.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Hale Hentges for 4 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
5.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 7 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
5.2%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
5.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 6 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
5.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
5.1%
Josh Jacobs run for 6 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
5.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for no gain to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
5.3%
Joseph Bulovas 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:436% → 6%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
5.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
5.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson KnoxSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
5.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+21
5.8%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 21 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
6.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
6.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
6.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-7
6.2%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Anfernee Jennings and Christian Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:3795% → 95%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
4.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 10 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+35
4.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 35 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
4.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.7%
Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:403% → 3%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
3.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
3.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 2 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
3.0%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+37
2.7%
Mac Brown punt for 37 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 37 yds to the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:4995% → 98%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
4.7%
Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
4.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+22
2.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 22 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:382% → 2%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
1.9%
Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
1.8%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 7
OWN 14
-4
1.7%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Christian Miller for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 10Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 11
OWN 10
0
1.6%
Mac Brown punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:4398% → 99%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
50
+5
2.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 5 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
2.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+1
1.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
1.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 13 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
1.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 11 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
1.6%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
1.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 13 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
1.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for no gain to the Miss 3Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+7
0.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 7 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+2
0.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:5699% → 99%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
1.4%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+6
1.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
1.3%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-5
1.2%
Josh Jacobs run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+8
1.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Holding (8 Yards) to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
1.1%
Josh Jacobs run for no gain to the Miss 7Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
1.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
1.5%
Joseph Bulovas 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
0.8%
Mac Brown punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:5699% → 99%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
1.1%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+17
1.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 17 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
0.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+11
0.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 11 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
0.8%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
0.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-5
0.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
0.8%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted C.J. Moore return for no gain to the Miss 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23INT TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:411% → 0%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
0.5%
Isaiah Woullard run for 7 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+1
0.5%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the Miss 12Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+12
0.4%
Isaiah Woullard run for 12 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+30
0.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted for a TD Xavier McKinney return for 30 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.3%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
0.3%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Jamey Mosley for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
0.3%
Mac Brown punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 6:1099% → 100%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
0.6%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Derek KiefSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+13
0.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 13 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
0.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
0.5%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Tyrell ShaversSimilar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+30
0.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 30 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
0.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+6
0.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
0.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
0.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-2
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 13
OPP 19
-7
0.3%
Mac Jones sacked by Markel Winters and Austrian Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+44
0.4%
Joseph Bulovas 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.2%
Tylan Knight run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
0.2%
Tylan Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
0.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 6 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.1%
Mac Brown punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
0.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the Alab 18Similar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 18Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+1
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 14
OWN 19
-5
0.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 19
OWN 14
+7
0.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
0.3%
Skyler DeLong punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:260% → 0%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
0.1%
Tylan Knight run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 4
50
+5
0.1%
Tylan Knight run for 5 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.1%
Tylan Knight run for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
0.1%
Tylan Knight run for 2 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+1
0.1%
Tylan Knight run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
0.2%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+1
0.2%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.2%
Ronnie Clark run for 1 yd to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
0.2%
Skyler DeLong punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.1%
Armani Linton run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
0.1%
Tylan Knight run for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Armani Linton run for no gain to the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:36
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 22 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q1 4:40
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 12 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-1.4
TD · Q1 5:43
Najee Harris run for 10 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com