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LSU

LSU 22 at Auburn 21

AUB
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:04 · JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+26.7Home team on offense−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:06: JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +9.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:31: Shaun Shivers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +9.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:38: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 4 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:18: Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 71 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — LSU win probability +22.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Cole Tracy 42 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +65.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 9:34AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:04AUB 4th & 1 at LSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:29LSU 4th & 2 at AUB 35, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:19AUB 4th & 18 at AUB 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:37LSU 4th & 6 at AUB 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:09LSU 4th & 13 at LSU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:29LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:46LSU 4th & 3 at AUB 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−2.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:11LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:08AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:58LSU 4th & 8 at AUB 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−5.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:05LSU 4th & 5 at AUB 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:57AUB 4th & 5 at LSU 35, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:53LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 43, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:30AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 20, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:38AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−2.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:00LSU 4th & 7 at AUB 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.5%−4.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00LSU 4th & 10 at AUB 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−36.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−43.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:59LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:06AUB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:31AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:38AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:18LSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    34.4%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:3481% → 81%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.7%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
80.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted Grant Delpit return for no gain to the Aub 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:1620% → 22%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
80.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 6 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
80.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Nick BrossetteSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+6
80.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 6 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
80.1%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
79.9%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 6
OPP 18
-5
79.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Austin Deculus) to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+15
79.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 15 yds to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
79.3%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
79.1%
Joe Burrow run for 8 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Tracy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1778% → 78%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Kam MartinSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
78.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Arryn Siposs punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:4722% → 23%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+31
77.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 31 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
77.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-8
76.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 7 yds to the Aub 31 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Damien Lewis) to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 18
OPP 46
0
76.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 18
OPP 46
0
76.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:2577% → 77%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
77.4%
AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (Eli Stove) to the Aub 10Similar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
77.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 20 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
77.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+28
77.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 28 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
77.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
77.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
77.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 1
OPP 15
-2
76.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6MISSED FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:3524% → 28%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
75.8%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-8 Yards) to the LSU 9Similar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
76.0%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the LSU 10Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+11
75.5%
Nick Brossette run for 11 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
75.2%
Nick Brossette run for 11 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
74.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-2
74.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+13
74.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 13 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
73.5%
Joe Burrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+15
73.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
72.4%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+6
71.9%
Justin Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-5
71.6%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Austin Deculus) to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+5
71.4%
Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+53
71.6%
Cole Tracy 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0372% → 70%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
72.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 5 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
73.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
72.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-6
73.0%
Anthony Schwartz run for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-8
71.3%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Andre Anthony for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 38Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
70.2%
Arryn Siposs punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3829% → 35%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
70.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Lanard FournetteSimilar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+9
70.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
70.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+33
69.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 33 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
68.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+11
67.5%
Nick Brossette run for 11 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
67.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Javaris Davis) to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
66.7%
Chris Curry run for 2 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
66.3%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+4
65.1%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 1
OPP 9
-5
65.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Damien Lewis) to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+33
65.0%
Cole Tracy 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:2464% → 73%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.2%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
63.6%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
62.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 9 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
63.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 19 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
63.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
63.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
63.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
64.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 12 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
64.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+7
64.0%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kary Vincent Jr.) to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
73.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5231% → 30%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-3
69.8%
Joe Burrow sacked by Deshaun Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+5
70.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 49 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 5 yds to the Aub 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:2970% → 79%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
69.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
69.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
68.9%
LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Andre Anthony) to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
71.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Seth Williams for 16 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
72.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+13
72.6%
Shaun Shivers run for 13 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
72.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
72.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the LSU 11Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
70.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 4 yds to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
79.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5422% → 21%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
78.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
78.4%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
79.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 58 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 5 yds to the Aub 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
76.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:0725% → 27%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
74.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 12 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
73.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 11 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
72.1%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
71.5%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
71.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
72.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:5776% → 85%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
76.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+7
76.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
76.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+33
76.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Asa Martin for 33 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
77.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 4Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 4 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1916% → 15%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.0%
Derrick Dillon run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
84.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
84.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+14
85.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 56 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 14 yds to the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5785% → 84%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
85.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
84.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
84.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
83.8%
Arryn Siposs punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:5918% → 18%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
82.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 20 yds to the AUBURN 48 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
81.4%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+2
81.0%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
82.2%
Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
81.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
81.5%
Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+6
83.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Javaris Davis) to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
81.7%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q3 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
83.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q3 3:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+27
81.7%
Cole Tracy 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5987% → 87%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
86.8%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+12
87.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Jalen Harris for 12 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
87.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 4 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-2
87.7%
Shaun Shivers run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+20
87.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted Greedy Williams return for 20 yds to the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3117% → 15%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
82.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
83.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+3
84.1%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
85.1%
Josh Growden punt for 38 yds, downed at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21MISSED FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:0387% → 88%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
87.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+19
87.1%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 19 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
88.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (John Battle) to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Chandler CoxSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-3
89.2%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+8
88.2%
Jarrett Stidham run for 8 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+52
88.3%
Anders Carlson 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5515% → 14%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
85.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
84.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 4 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
84.2%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
86.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:1588% → 88%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
88.3%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+8
88.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
89.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
89.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+9
89.0%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 9 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
88.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+4
87.7%
Arryn Siposs punt for 55 yds , Jonathan Giles returns for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
65.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 71 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:3269% → 69%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
69.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kaleb Kim) to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+9
68.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 9 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
67.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
71.6%
Jarrett Stidham run for no gain to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
69.2%
Arryn Siposs punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26END OF GAME
18 plays · 52 yds · 5:2835% → 92%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
65.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
65.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+15
67.6%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
64.8%
Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+8
65.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 8 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
62.4%
Joe Burrow run for 6 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-3
60.9%
Joe Burrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 48Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+9
65.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 9 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
60.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
62.4%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jamel Dean) to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
58.1%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
63.0%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-3
65.3%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
8.0%
Cole Tracy 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Cole Tracy 42 yd FG GOOD
-65.5
TD · Q4 8:18
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 71 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-22.7
TD · Q2 5:06
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com