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UNT

North Texas 44 at Arkansas 17

ARK
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:53 · Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:04: Cole Hedlund 24 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +2.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:08: Cole Kelley run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +6.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:21: Loren Easly run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +8.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:55: Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +15.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 9:26: Cole Hedlund 20 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +10.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UNT made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:55UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49ARK 4th & 10 at UNT 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:04UNT 4th & 7 at ARK 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:04ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:10UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:08UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:27ARK 4th & 5 at UNT 36, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:55UNT 4th & 8 at ARK 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:41ARK 4th & 6 at UNT 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:51ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 8, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:10UNT 4th & 9 at ARK 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−3.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:26UNT 4th & 3 at ARK 3, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−6.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:54UNT 4th & 17 at UNT 47, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:17ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 19, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:40UNT 4th & 6 at ARK 45, up 27
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 12, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:50UNT 4th & 3 at ARK 43, up 27
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:22ARK 4th & 21 at ARK 17, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:51ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 15, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:23UNT 4th & 8 at ARK 47, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:45UNT 4th & 6 at ARK 45, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:58ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 4, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:04UNT 4th & 3 at ARK 30, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:36UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:08ARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:21UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:55UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:42UNT Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:53ARK Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
62.9%
PENALTY AR personal foul off-setting, PENALTY UNT personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
62.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 9 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+18
62.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
62.9%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-2
62.9%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
62.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Nate BrooksSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
62.9%
Blake Johnson punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
62.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+1
62.8%
Loren Easly run for 1 yd to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+8
62.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 8 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+3
62.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
62.9%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
62.8%
Cole Kelley pass intercepted Nate Brooks return for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:4338% → 40%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
62.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+24
62.4%
Loren Easly run for 24 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
62.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
62.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete, broken up by Bumper PoolSimilar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+12
62.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 12 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
62.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
62.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to M. Lawrence, PENALTY AR pass interference (Santos Ramirez) 6 yards to the AR2, 1ST DOWN UNT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.2%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT RETURN TD
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:4761% → 57%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
60.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 13 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
60.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 16 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
61.4%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 11
50
+9
61.1%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 9 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
61.4%
Cole Kelley run for 4 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
61.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
61.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
61.2%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Kemon HallSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+90
57.1%
Blake Johnson punt for 27 yds , Keegan Brewer returns for 90 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
56.8%
T.J. Hammonds run for no gain to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+22
56.7%
Cole Kelley pass intercepted Khairi Muhammad return for 22 yds to the Ark 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5546% → 48%
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
54.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Briston GuidrySimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
54.4%
Loren Easly run for 1 yd to the Ark 7Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
54.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by De'Jon HarrisSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
52.0%
Cole Hedlund 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0052% → 53%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
51.8%
Chase Hayden run for 5 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
52.1%
Chase Hayden run for 3 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
52.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 4 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
52.5%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+6
52.2%
Cole Kelley pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 6 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
52.5%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
52.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keegan Brewer at the NoTex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
48.6%
Loren Easly run for 9 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 1
OWN 21
-3
48.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 18Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
48.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
49.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 43 yds, downed at the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 1:3648% → 55%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
48.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 15 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
48.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Kemon HallSimilar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
48.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 11 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
48.4%
Cole Kelley run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+25
48.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Michael Woods for 25 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
48.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.1%
Cole Kelley run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 11 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
52.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 4 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-2
52.5%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
52.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+1
53.9%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 48 yds , Deon Stewart returns for 1 yd to the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 2:5551% → 53%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
50.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
50.8%
Cole Kelley run for no gain to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+14
50.2%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 14 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
51.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway, broken up by Kemon HallSimilar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
51.2%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Mike Woods, PENALTY UNT pass interference (K. Muhammad) 15 yards to the AR46, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
52.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
51.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Michael Woods for 13 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
52.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Michael Woods for 5 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
52.8%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
52.7%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+54
52.9%
Connor Limpert 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:3249% → 49%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
51.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 27 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
49.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael Lawrence, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-11
49.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey for 48 yards to the AR0, clock 08:55, PENALTY UNT holding (Jordan Murray) 11 yards to the UNT41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 21
OWN 41
0
51.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to DeAndre TorreySimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 21
OWN 41
+13
51.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 13 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
50.8%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
50.1%
Cole Kelley pass intercepted Nate Brooks return for no gain to the Ark 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:3053% → 61%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
46.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 31 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.6%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 1:4041% → 41%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
41.2%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Mike Woods, PENALTY UNT pass interference (Nate Brooks) 11 yards to the AR43, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
42.0%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Michael Woods for 18 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
42.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to TJ Hammonds, PENALTY UNT pass interference (Brandon Garner) 15 yards to the UNT24, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
42.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
42.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
42.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
40.5%
Connor Limpert 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:4661% → 78%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
38.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 36 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
37.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+21
37.4%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, personal foul (Jarques McClellion) to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
37.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+11
37.1%
Loren Easly run for 11 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
37.1%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
37.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Nate Brooks, broken up by Jarques McClellionSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
21.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 1:0427% → 24%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
26.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Jeremy Patton) to the Ark 9Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 15
OWN 9
0
26.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 15
OWN 9
-4
26.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 11 yards to the AR20 (Jameel Moore), PENALTY AR illegal formation (Dalton Wagner) 4 yards to the AR5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 19
OWN 5
+3
26.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Chase Hayden for 3 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 16
OWN 8
0
24.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 16
OWN 8
0
24.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keegan Brewer at the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 1:2680% → 82%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
20.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to M. Lawrence for 7 yards to the AR42 (Kamren Curl), PENALTY UNT holding (Jordan Murray) 10 yards to the UNT41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+37
20.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 37 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
19.4%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+8
18.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
18.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 9Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
18.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
18.9%
N/A pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
17.7%
Cole Hedlund 26 yd FG GOOD ARKANSAS Penalty, OF ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:1023% → 22%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
23.0%
Chase Hayden run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-5
21.6%
Connor Limpert kickoff 58 yards to the UNT7, Deandre Torrey return to the UNT26 (D. McClure), PENALTY AR OF (Micahh Smith) 5 yards to the AR30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21FG
17 plays · 72 yds · 5:3482% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.8%
Loren Easly run for 4 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
17.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 8 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
17.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to M. Lawrence for 5 yards to the UNT42 (Bumper Pool), PENALTY UNT ineligible downfield on pass (Jaelon Darden) 5 yards to the UNT32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
17.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Loren Easly, broken up by D'Vone McClureSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+17
17.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Loren Easly for 17 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
17.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
17.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+10
17.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 10 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
17.1%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+15
16.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to M. Lawrence, PENALTY AR personal foul (Randy Ramsey) 15 yards to the AR19, 1ST DOWN UNT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
16.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 5 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+10
16.6%
Loren Easly run for 10 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
16.6%
Loren Easly run for 1 yd to the Ark 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
16.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Nate BrooksSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
17.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q3 9:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
6.7%
Cole Hedlund 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
7.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
8.0%
Chase Hayden run for 5 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+13
7.5%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 13 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+27
8.8%
Cole Kelley pass intercepted Taylor Robinson return for 27 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
5.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey, QB hurry by Armon Watts, PENALTY AR holding (Ryan Pulley) 10 yards to the AR46, 1ST DOWN UNT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
5.7%
Mason Fine sacked by Armon Watts for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+2
5.7%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 17
OWN 47
0
5.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
6.5%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
6.4%
Connor Noland run for 4 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
6.4%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the Ark 13Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+13
6.3%
Connor Noland run for 13 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
6.6%
Connor Noland sacked by Brandon Garner for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 16
OWN 20
-7
6.3%
Connor Noland sacked by LaDarius Hamilton for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 13Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 23
OWN 13
+6
6.2%
Connor Noland pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 6 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
6.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Keegan Brewer at the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
2.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
2.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
2.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
3.2%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 38 yds, downed at the Ark 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:135% → 5%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
4.7%
Connor Noland pass complete to Deon Stewart for 8 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 2
OWN 15
0
4.7%
Connor Noland pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for no gain to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 2
OWN 15
-3
4.8%
Connor Noland sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 12Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 12
0
4.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
50
+2
2.3%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
2.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 5 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
2.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete, broken up by Armon WattsSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
2.4%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
2.3%
Connor Noland pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 11 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
2.3%
Connor Noland sacked by LaDarius Hamilton for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 14
OWN 24
-7
2.1%
Connor Noland sacked by Darrian McMillan for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 17 ARKANSAS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 21
OWN 17
0
2.1%
Connor Noland pass incomplete ARKANSAS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
2.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29FUMBLE
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
50
+37
0.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 37 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
0.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 5 yds Kelvin Smith fumbled, forced by Kamren Curl, recovered by Ark Gabe RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
0.7%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
0.7%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Chase HaydenSimilar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+5
0.7%
John Stephen Jones run for 15 yds to the Ark 25 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Jeremy Patton) to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
0.7%
John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Michael WoodsSimilar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
0.7%
M Phillips punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keegan Brewer at the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
0.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+4
0.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
0.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael Lawrence, broken up by De'Jon HarrisSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
0.5%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 32INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
0.3%
John Stephen Jones pass intercepted for a TD Kemon Hall return for 24 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 33INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
0.3%
Connor Noland pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
0.2%
Maleek Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-6
0.2%
Connor Noland pass intercepted Khairi Muhammad return for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 34PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
0.2%
Quinn Shanbour sacked by Derrick Munson for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 18
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Quinn Shanbour pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 18
OWN 43
+12
0.3%
Quinn Shanbour run for 12 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+44
0.3%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 1 ARKANSAS Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) to the Ark 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 35PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
0.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start ( Yards) to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
0.2%
Maleek Williams run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
0.2%
Maleek Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+1
0.1%
Maleek Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
0.1%
Blake Johnson punt for 33 yds, downed at the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 36DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.1%
Quinn Shanbour run for 5 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-2
0.1%
Anthony Wyche run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+4
0.1%
Quinn Shanbour run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-2
0.2%
Quinn Shanbour run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 37TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
0.1%
Maleek Williams run for 68 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 38END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:55
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)
-15.2
FG · Q3 9:26
Cole Hedlund 20 yd FG GOOD
-10.6
TD · Q2 7:21
Loren Easly run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com