Try the model
NEV

Nevada 10 at Vanderbilt 41

VAN
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:19 · Quinton Conaway punt for 48 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 15 yds to the Vandy 46 VANDERBILT Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Vandy 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior+22.1Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:16: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +4.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:24: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +5.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:49: Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 9 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — NEV win probability +8.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:14: Ryley Guay 25 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +5.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:17: Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 46 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK) — VAN win probability +11.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:19NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:29VAN 4th & 3 at NEV 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:04NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 11, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:24NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:41NEV 4th & 11 at VAN 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:13VAN 4th & 4 at NEV 17, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:14VAN 4th & 6 at NEV 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:17NEV 4th & 8 at VAN 27, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 5 at VAN 12, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:15VAN 4th & 20 at VAN 48, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:31VAN 4th & 9 at NEV 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:10NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:16VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:24VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:49NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:17VAN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:23VAN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:10VAN Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 64 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
73.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 13 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
73.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
73.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
73.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+27
73.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Donaven Tennyson for 12 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
73.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-1
73.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+5
73.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Chris Pierce for 5 yds Chris Pierce fumbled, forced by Hausia Sekona, recovered by Nevad Dom PetersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
72.7%
Kelton Moore run for no gain to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+13
72.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Trae Carter-Wells for 13 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
72.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 7 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
72.5%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.6%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
72.7%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+2
72.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 9
OWN 36
-5
72.9%
CONAWAY, Q. punt 46 yards to the VANDY18, Trey Ellis return to the VANDY18 (HENLEY, Daiyan), PENALTY NEVADA illegal formation (HENLEY, Daiyan) 5 yards to the NEVADA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+15
72.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 48 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 15 yds to the Vandy 46 VANDERBILT Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Vandy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 71 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
71.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 2 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
71.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+53
71.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 53 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
72.7%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 11 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
72.7%
Jamauri Wakefield run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 5Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
72.7%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 4 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
72.4%
Khari Blasingame run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
72.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Chris Pierce, broken up by Lucas WeberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
70.8%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+5
70.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside (Jordan Griffin) to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+1
70.7%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 1
OWN 12
-1
71.0%
Devonte Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 2
OWN 11
+41
71.4%
Quinton Conaway punt for 41 yds , Trey Ellis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:4172% → 76%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
71.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 20 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
72.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+7
72.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 7 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
72.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
72.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Chris PierceSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+18
71.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 18 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
74.5%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-8
74.6%
Ty Gangi sacked by Kenny Hebert for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 7 Ty Gangi fumbled, recovered by Vandy Kenny Hebert , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1576% → 82%
Q2 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
76.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.3%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
79.1%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
79.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 3 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
79.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
79.2%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+9
79.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 36 yds , Trey Ellis returns for 9 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
81.4%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 3 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-6
81.7%
Kyle Shurmur run for 4 yds to the Vandy 41 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding (Kalija Lipscomb) to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 13
OWN 31
-8
81.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 2 yds to the Vandy 33 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding (Jared Pinkney) to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 21
OWN 23
0
81.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 21
OWN 23
+5
80.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds Kalija Lipscomb fumbled, forced by Malik Reed, recovered by Nevad Justin BrentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:1721% → 20%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
78.8%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
78.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 5 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
79.4%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Vandy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-8
78.8%
Kaleb Fossum sacked by LaDarius Wiley for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 18
OPP 22
+1
81.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kelton Moore for 1 yd to the Vandy 21Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 17
OPP 21
+6
82.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 6 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
79.7%
Ramiz Ahmed 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:2881% → 85%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
80.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Cam Johnson for 14 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
81.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 12 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
81.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Chris Pierce for 16 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
82.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 4 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+2
82.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
81.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Donaven TennysonSimilar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
84.7%
Ryley Guay 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:2416% → 25%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 13 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
83.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 25 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
82.6%
Ty Gangi run for 9 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+2
81.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
81.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 9 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 1
OPP 17
-1
81.8%
Ty Gangi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 18Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+9
84.2%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Daiyan Henley, broken up by Josh SmithSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
75.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 9 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
77.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Donaven Tennyson, broken up by EJ MuhammadSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
77.6%
Khari Blasingame run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
75.9%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+8
76.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 8 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
76.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Daiyan Henley, broken up by Donovan SheffieldSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
77.2%
Quinton Conaway punt for 57 yds, downed at the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15FG
12 plays · 77 yds · 6:1777% → 83%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
76.9%
Khari Blasingame run for 4 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+19
76.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 19 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
78.1%
Khari Blasingame run for 9 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
78.8%
Khari Blasingame run for 8 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
78.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 11 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
79.1%
Khari Blasingame run for 11 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
79.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 11 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
79.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 6 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+1
79.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Nevad 4Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
78.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 2 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 1
OPP 2
-5
77.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Bruno Reagan) to the Nevad 7Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
82.9%
Ryley Guay 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
81.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah Cooks, broken up by Donovan SheffieldSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
82.3%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Joejuan Williams return for no gain to the Nevad 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
1 play · 46 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
93.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 46 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 53 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
92.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 13 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
91.6%
Devonte Lee run for 6 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+32
91.4%
Ty Gangi pass complete to McLane Mannix for 32 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
90.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
90.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
91.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 8
OPP 27
0
91.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 4:0094% → 98%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
93.6%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 3 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+11
93.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 11 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
93.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (Gabriel Sewell) to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
94.0%
Jamauri Wakefield run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+26
93.9%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 26 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
94.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. BolarSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
94.0%
Jamauri Wakefield run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 11Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
98.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 11 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 65 yds · 0:232% → 2%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
98.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 20 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 5 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-7
98.2%
Ty Gangi sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 48 Ty Gangi fumbled, recovered by Nevad Toa Taua , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+14
98.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 14 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
98.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 10 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
97.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 9 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+2
98.0%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
98.0%
Devonte Lee run for no gain to the Vandy 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+5
98.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+2
98.1%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
98.8%
Josh Crawford run for 4 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
98.8%
Josh Crawford run for 3 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
98.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+15
99.2%
Parker Thome punt 54 yards to the NEVADA29, FOSSUM, Kaleb return to the NEVADA31 (LaDarius Wiley), PENALTY NEVADA personal foul (MUHAMMAD, EJ) 15 yards to the VANDY32, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
99.3%
Josh Crawford run for 15 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.4%
Josh Crawford run for 7 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
99.4%
Josh Crawford run for 4 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.4%
Mo Hasan pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-3
99.4%
Josh Crawford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 13
OPP 45
-7
99.3%
Mo Hasan sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 48Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 20
OWN 48
+24
99.3%
Parker Thome punt for 47 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for 24 yds to the Nevad 32 Kaleb Fossum fumbled, forced by Drew Birchmeier, recovered by Vandy Kade MayleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
99.6%
Josh Crawford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
99.6%
Josh Crawford run for no gain to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 11
OPP 33
-4
99.6%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+6
99.6%
Mo Hasan run for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
99.7%
Ryley Guay 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.4%
Blake Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Blake WrightSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+19
99.5%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Allan George return for 19 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
99.8%
Mo Hasan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 12 yds to the Nevad 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.8%
Josh Crawford rush for 2 yards to the NEVADA7 (RUSH, Korey), PENALTY NEVADA offside (MEDER, Kaleb) 5 yards to the NEVADA4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.8%
Josh Crawford run for 3 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Josh Crawford run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Blake Wright, broken up by Kenny HebertSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to McLane MannixSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Daniel Brown punt for 34 yds, downed at the Vandy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:17
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 46 yds for a TD (Ryley Guay KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q2 0:49
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brendan O'Leary-Orange for 9 yds for a TD (Ramiz Ahmed KICK) VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-8.3
FG · Q3 7:14
Ryley Guay 25 yd FG GOOD
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com