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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:28 · Daniel LaCamera 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 5:19: Travis Etienne run for 5 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST down — CLEM win probability +8.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:22: Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 9 yds for a TD (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +12.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:01: Travis Etienne run for 1 yd for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +7.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:07: Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 14 yds for a TD (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +10.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:46: Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 24 yds for a TD (Kellen Mond intercepted ) — TA&M win probability +32.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 9CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 9:48TA&M 4th & 5 at CLEM 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snapGo for it24.7%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call24.7%89% to makePunt24.1%−0.6average punt
- Q1 7:57CLEM 4th & 16 at CLEM 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snapGo for it74.0%−0.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.4%average punt
- Q1 4:28TA&M 4th & 14 at CLEM 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snapGo for it26.4%−0.417% to convertField goalTheir call26.8%70% to makePunt25.5%−1.3average punt
- Q2 14:27TA&M 4th & 20 at TA&M 20, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snapGo for it25.7%−1.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.9%average punt
- Q2 13:19TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 21, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snapGo for it21.4%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.3%average punt
- Q2 11:41CLEM 4th & 8 at TA&M 43, up 11Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snapGo for it78.1%34% to convertField goal77.6%−0.528% to makePuntTheir call78.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 9:43TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 16, down 11Close callPunted · 21.7% before the snapGo for it21.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:21CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 21, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snapGo for it76.4%−0.647% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.0%average punt
- Q2 5:11TA&M 4th & 10 at CLEM 32, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.4% before the snapGo for it20.9%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call21.1%51% to makePunt20.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 1:54CLEM 4th & 1 at TA&M 1, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.6%59% to convertField goal77.1%−1.594% to makePunt73.7%−4.9average punt
- Q2 0:06TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 3, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snapGo for it17.6%−1.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q3 13:05CLEM 4th & 18 at CLEM 17, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snapGo for it76.3%−2.312% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.6%average punt
- Q3 10:37TA&M 4th & 2 at CLEM 23, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snapGo for it20.3%57% to convertField goalTheir call19.5%−0.870% to makePunt14.7%−5.7average punt
- Q3 9:04CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 24, up 8Close callPunted · 76.5% before the snapGo for it77.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 11:58CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 42, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snapGo for it83.4%−0.937% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.3%average punt
- Q4 6:24TA&M 4th & 18 at CLEM 48, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it10.3%−1.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.7%average punt
- Q4 4:03CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 49, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snapGo for it90.3%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.5%average punt
- Q4 1:12CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 27, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snapGo for it93.8%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 1:23CLEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.1%97% to makeGo for two73.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:13CLEM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.3%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:22TA&M Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.1%97% to makeGo for two23.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:01CLEM Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.2%97% to makeGo for two89.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:07TA&M Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.7%97% to makeGo for two21.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1MISSED FG12 plays · 66 yds · 4:5018% → 21%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
19.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Cullen Gillaspia for 21 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
19.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the Clem 27 Trayveon Williams fumbled, forced by K'Von Wallace, recovered by TexAM Keaton SutherlandSimilar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+13
20.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 13 yds to the Clem 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
20.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 2 yds to the Clem 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2479% → 78%
TA&MDrive 3FG10 plays · 32 yds · 3:0122% → 24%
CLEMDrive 4TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0576% → 79%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
24.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 19Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
24.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 1 yd to the Clem 20Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+64
25.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 64 yds to the TexAM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+18
24.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Travis Etienne for 18 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 1:4422% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD1 play · 64 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
19.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 64 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4119% → 19%
CLEMDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1982% → 81%
TA&MDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3819% → 18%
Q2 9:43
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
18.2%
Braden Mann punt for 69 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for no gain to the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0781% → 80%
TA&MDrive 11MISSED FG9 plays · 30 yds · 3:0319% → 19%
Q2 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+8
18.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trevor Wood for 8 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
19.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 20 yds to the Clem 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+7
18.8%
Daniel LaCamera 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Dexter Lawrence Mark Fields return for 7 yds to the Clem 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12FUMBLE10 plays · 53 yds · 3:0282% → 83%
Q2 4:34
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+15
18.6%
Bryant, Kelly pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASAM roughing passer 15 yards to the TEXASAM38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
17.5%
Kelly Bryant run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 2, Kelly Bryant fumbled, recovered by Clem Adam Choice , return for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2418% → 18%
Q2 0:06
4TH & 11
OWN 3
+9
17.8%
Braden Mann punt for 73 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 9 yds to the Clem 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 15 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2181% → 80%
TA&MDrive 16FG5 plays · 34 yds · 2:0320% → 23%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
19.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 26 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2679% → 78%
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
21.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for no gain to the Clem 16Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+8
21.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 8 yds to the Clem 24Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+14
21.8%
Will Spiers punt for 50 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 14 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18FUMBLE6 plays · 33 yds · 2:2923% → 26%
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
22.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 17 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-3
24.7%
Kellen Mond sacked by Kendall Joseph for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 44Similar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
26.2%
Nick Starkel sacked by Clelin Ferrell for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 30 Nick Starkel fumbled, recovered by Clem Justin Foster , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD3 plays · 70 yds · 0:5080% → 91%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+50
19.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 50 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20TD3 plays · 78 yds · 0:0212% → 24%
CLEMDrive 21TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5981% → 92%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
18.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 40 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
16.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 6 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+10
17.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 10 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
15.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Travis Etienne for 5 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4311% → 23%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 6 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
12.0%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Williams, Trayveon, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 15 yards to the CLEMSON45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+31
13.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 17 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Roughing Passer (14 Yards) to the Clem 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
23.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 14 yds for a TD (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5483% → 85%
TA&MDrive 24PUNT13 plays · 39 yds · 4:5517% → 12%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
16.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 21 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+15
15.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 15 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
19.5%
Kellen Mond sacked by Clelin Ferrell for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+13
17.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 13 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+9
18.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 9 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
19.1%
Mond, Kellen pass complete to Buckley, Camron for 15 yards to the CLEMSON25, PENALTY TEXASAM ineligible downfield on kick 5 yards to the CLEMSON45, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 29 yds · 1:4791% → 92%
Q4 4:03
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
8.0%
Will Spiers punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26FUMBLE6 plays · 85 yds · 1:4212% → 11%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
11.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 30 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
13.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 28 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+25
10.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 25 yds Quartney Davis fumbled, forced by K'Von Wallace, recovered by ClemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:5795% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 28TD3 plays · 49 yds · 0:226% → 37%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
5.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 10 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
5.2%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Rogers, Kendrick, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 15 yards to the CLEMSON24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
37.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 24 yds for a TD (Kellen Mond intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 29END OF GAME2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:46
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 24 yds for a TD (Kellen Mond intercepted )
+32.1
TD · Q3 4:22
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 9 yds for a TD (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+12.9
TD · Q4 14:07
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 14 yds for a TD (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+10.8