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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:14 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:32: Drew Lock run for 12 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +2.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:32: Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 19 yds for a TD (Corey Fatony fumbled) WYOMING Penalty, illegal forward pass ( Yards) declined — MIZ win probability +4.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:16: Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 28 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:37: Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 12 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:51: Jevon Bigelow run for 7 yds for a TD (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +2.0 pts (now 2%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 6WYO made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 12:01MIZ 4th & 7 at WYO 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snapGo for it88.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call88.8%58% to makePunt88.5%−0.3average punt
- Q1 12:01WYO 4th & 11 at WYO 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snapGo for it11.1%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q1 11:11MIZ 4th & 1 at WYO 41, tiedClose callPunted · 88.6% before the snapGo for it88.6%70% to convertField goal88.4%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call88.4%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:52WYO 4th & 4 at MIZ 49, tiedClose callPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it12.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:08MIZ 4th & 4 at WYO 32, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snapGo for it86.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call86.2%−0.151% to makePunt86.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 4:08WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.7%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.9%average punt
- Q1 2:55WYO 4th & 14 at MIZ 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it13.2%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%average punt
- Q2 12:31MIZ 4th & 6 at WYO 31, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.6%40% to convertField goalTheir call84.5%−<0.154% to makePunt84.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 11:16WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.6%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%average punt
- Q2 5:32WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 43, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it12.2%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.5%average punt
- Q3 7:29WYO 4th & 9 at MIZ 34, down 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.6%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call2.6%47% to makePunt2.4%−0.2average punt
- Q4 12:58WYO 4th & 16 at WYO 16, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 7:27MIZ 4th & 9 at WYO 25, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%66% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:53WYO 4th & 14 at MIZ 19, down 30Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.117% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%77% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:53MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 46, up 27Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:50WYO 4th & 2 at MIZ 49, down 27Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 5:32MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.9%97% to makeGo for two87.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:16MIZ Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:37MIZ Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:51WYO Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.3%97% to makeGo for two2.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:05MIZ Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1FUMBLE4 plays · 20 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Josh Harshman for 11 yds to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
92.3%
Jevon Bigelow run for 5 yds to the Wyom 45 Jevon Bigelow fumbled, forced by Terez Hall, recovered by Misso Khalil OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2MISSED FG6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4992% → 92%
WYODrive 3PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q1 12:01
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
91.6%
Tim Zaleski punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 0:009% → 9%
MIZDrive 6FG7 plays · 48 yds · 2:4290% → 90%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
90.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 16 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
90.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 14 yds to the Wyom 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
90.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8FUMBLE2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
WYODrive 9PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
88.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Josh Harshman for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10MISSED FG12 plays · 54 yds · 2:3688% → 88%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+25
88.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 25 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
89.0%
Badie, Tyler rush for 2 yards to the MU49 (WINGARD, Andrew), PENALTY WY substitution infraction 5 yards to the WY48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
89.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel Hall, broken up by Antonio HullSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+13
88.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 13 yds to the Wyom 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
89.3%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Scott, Kam, PENALTY MU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the WY40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+5
89.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 5 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
89.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon Johnson, broken up by Tyler HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 1:1512% → 12%
MIZDrive 12TD10 plays · 97 yds · 3:2487% → 91%
Q2 8:56
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+36
86.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 36 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
87.4%
Crockett, Damar rush for 6 yards to the MU49 (WILSON, Logan), PENALTY WY substitution infraction 5 yards to the MU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+19
87.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 19 yds to the Wyom 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
88.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 12 yds to the Wyom 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
MIZDrive 14TD14 plays · 73 yds · 1:5190% → 95%
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
90.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 10 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
90.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 11 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
90.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 4 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+8
90.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 8 yds to the Wyom 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
91.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 5 yds to the Wyom 24Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+5
90.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 5 yds to the Wyom 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
95.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 19 yds for a TD (Corey Fatony fumbled) WYOMING Penalty, illegal forward pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15END OF HALF5 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
92.9%
Jevon Bigelow run for 5 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-11
92.2%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Nate Anderson for a loss of 11 yards to the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16TD14 plays · 90 yds · 4:3993% → 98%
Q3 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+27
93.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
93.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 3 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
97.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 28 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17FG9 plays · 41 yds · 2:473% → 3%
MIZDrive 18TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5298% → 100%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
97.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 9 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
97.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jalen Knox for 13 yds to the Wyom 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 12 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19TD6 plays · 70 yds · 1:360% → 2%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
99.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Tyree Mayfield for 28 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
99.7%
VANDER WAAL, T. pass incomplete to BIGELOW, Jevon, PENALTY MU pass interference (Barber, Kentrel) 15 yards to the MU27, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+17
99.6%
Jevon Bigelow run for 9 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, targeting (Brandon Lee) to the Misso 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20TD14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4698% → 100%
Q3 2:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
98.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 9 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-5
98.7%
Lock, Drew pass complete to Okwuegbunam, Al for 53 yards to the WY0, clock 00:24, PENALTY MU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
98.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 2 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+5
98.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 5 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+32
98.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Damarea Crockett for 32 yds to the Wyom 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 14 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIZDrive 22FG8 plays · 29 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
WYODrive 23FG6 plays · 51 yds · 1:340% → 0%
MIZDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25PUNT5 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:50
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Tim Zaleski punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Dominic Gicinto at the Misso 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:32
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 19 yds for a TD (Corey Fatony fumbled) WYOMING Penalty, illegal forward pass ( Yards) declined
+4.5
TD · Q3 10:16
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 28 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q2 5:32
Drew Lock run for 12 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)
+2.8