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MSST

Mississippi State 31 at Kansas State 10

KSU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Nick Gibson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:20: Kylin Hill 16 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick) — MSST win probability +4.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:33: Kylin Hill 28 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick) — MSST win probability +5.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:18: Austin Williams 13 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick) — MSST win probability +7.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:20: Dalton Schoen 23 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Blake Lynch Kick) — KSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:16: Kylin Hill run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:38MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:39KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:07MSST 4th & 13 at KSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:53KSU 4th & 7 at MSST 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:07KSU 4th & 5 at MSST 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−1.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:07MSST 4th & 5 at KSU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00KSU 4th & 17 at MSST 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:17KSU 4th & 4 at MSST 38, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−1.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:32KSU 4th & 18 at KSU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:36KSU 4th & 11 at KSU 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:23MSST 4th & 19 at KSU 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:31KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 28, down 21
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 14:20MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:33MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:18MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:20KSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:16MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:1775% → 74%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
25.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 5 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
25.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-5
25.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Darryl Williams) to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+9
25.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-4
25.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Tucker Day) to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
25.9%
Tucker Day punt for 34 yds, downed at the KanSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5926% → 26%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
26.0%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
26.0%
Alex Barnes run for 7 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
26.4%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
26.4%
Andrew Hicks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:3274% → 72%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
26.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
26.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
26.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
26.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
27.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
27.1%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Johnson, Justin, PENALTY KANSASST offside (Walker, Reggie) off-setting, PENALTY MISSSTATE Illegal Formation off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+47
27.3%
Kylin Hill run for 47 yds to the KanSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
27.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q1 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
27.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
27.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
28.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 13Similar
Q1 9:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
28.0%
Jace Christmann 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 5:0328% → 31%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
27.9%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
28.4%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+12
28.6%
Skylar Thompson run for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
29.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalvin Warmack for 3 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
29.6%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
29.1%
Skylar Thompson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+6
29.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jeffery Simmons) to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
29.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalvin Warmack for 18 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
30.1%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
30.5%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
30.0%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Alex BarnesSimilar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
30.9%
Blake Lynch 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:1971% → 75%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
29.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 5
50
+6
29.5%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
29.1%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
28.8%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
29.1%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Hill, Kylin, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding 10 yards to the KANSASST42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+1
29.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+2
30.3%
Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+19
31.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 19 yds to the KanSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
29.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the KanSt 16Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
25.2%
Kylin Hill 16 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:0527% → 29%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.1%
Skylar Thompson run for 3 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
27.3%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 29Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
27.6%
Thompson, Skylar pass incomplete to Zuber, Isaiah, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Cole, Brian) 9 yards to the KANSASST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
28.4%
Skylar Thompson run for no gain to the KanSt 38Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
28.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
50
+4
29.6%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Alex Barnes for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
29.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
30.0%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Isaiah HarrisSimilar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
29.0%
Andrew Hicks punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:5873% → 75%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
27.4%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+30
27.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 30 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
25.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
25.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+5
25.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 5 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
25.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:1928% → 30%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
28.2%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
29.0%
Alex Delton run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
50
+6
29.5%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
29.9%
Alex Barnes run for no gain to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+4
29.8%
Alex Delton run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
30.1%
Alex Delton run for no gain to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
30.1%
Alex Delton pass intercepted Erroll Thompson return for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:1574% → 80%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
26.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+32
25.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 32 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
19.7%
Kylin Hill 28 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:2421% → 20%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
21.4%
Alex Barnes run for 7 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+15
22.0%
Alex Delton pass complete to Alex Barnes for 15 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
21.9%
Alex Delton pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-1
21.9%
Alex Delton sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+15
20.3%
Delton, Alex pass complete to Barnes, Alex for loss of 4 yards to the MISSSTATE47, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing passer (Lewis, Leo) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
21.9%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Alex BarnesSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-1
21.8%
Alex Delton sacked by Brian Cole for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-6
20.9%
Alex Delton sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 35
+52
19.6%
Blake Lynch 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:2718% → 19%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
18.4%
Alex Barnes run for 15 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
19.7%
Alex Barnes run for 12 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
20.0%
Alex Barnes run for 9 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-3
20.3%
Skylar Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
18.9%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
18.5%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 33 yds, downed at the MisSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 1:5283% → 94%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+23
16.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 23 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
16.1%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+52
15.6%
Kylin Hill run for 52 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
14.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
6.3%
Austin Williams 13 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 4:3410% → 6%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
9.7%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+11
9.2%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dalton Schoen for 11 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
8.7%
Skylar Thompson run for 3 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
8.6%
Skylar Thompson run for no gain to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
8.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Zach Reuter for 15 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
8.4%
Alex Barnes run for no gain to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-8
8.2%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Fletcher Adams for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 18
OWN 48
0
5.7%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 18
OWN 48
+45
5.6%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 45 yds , Keith Mixon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14INT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:0096% → 97%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
3.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+7
3.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 15
-5
3.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Greg Eiland) to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+18
3.4%
Kylin Hill run for 18 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
3.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
3.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+11
2.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Wyatt Hubert return for 11 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
15.9%
Dalton Schoen 23 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Blake Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:4789% → 98%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
11.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 19 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
10.2%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+5
10.0%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
9.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+5
9.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the KanSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
8.1%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+11
7.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the KanSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
2.0%
Kylin Hill run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:293% → 3%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
2.8%
Skylar Thompson run for 8 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
3.0%
Alex Barnes run for 4 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
2.8%
Skylar Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 45Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+2
2.6%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
2.5%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Isaiah HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
2.5%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 32 yds, downed at the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18MISSED FG
17 plays · 52 yds · 7:0798% → 99%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
1.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 6 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-5
1.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+2
1.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+13
1.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
1.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Nick Gibson for 9 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
1.3%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
1.2%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
50
+9
1.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
0.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
0.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+21
0.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Dontea Jones for 21 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-4
0.8%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 22Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 14
OPP 22
0
0.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 14
OPP 22
-5
0.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Kody Schexnayder) to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 19
OPP 27
+44
0.8%
Jace Christmann 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:521% → 1%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
1.1%
Skylar Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
1.1%
Thompson, Skylar rush for 3 yards to the KANSASST30, PENALTY KANSASST holding (Frantz, Scott) 10 yards to the KANSASST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 20
OWN 17
-5
1.0%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Skylar Thompson) to the KanSt 12Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 25
OWN 12
+16
1.0%
Skylar Thompson run for 16 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
0.9%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Dalton SchoenSimilar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
0.8%
Andrew Hicks punt for 47 yds, downed at the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · 12 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.5%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
0.5%
Nick Gibson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:20
Dalton Schoen 23 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Blake Lynch Kick)
+12.9
TD · Q3 10:18
Austin Williams 13 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)
-7.8
TD · Q2 3:33
Kylin Hill 28 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com