2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadALST aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreALST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:51 · Harold Joiner run for 5 yds to the AlbSt 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:00: Darryl Pearson Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Daniel Thomas return for 29 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:30: Kam Martin run for 4 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ALST made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
- Q1 15:00AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q1 13:42ALST 4th & 20 at ALST 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q1 9:37ALST 4th & 6 at AUB 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%64% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:09ALST 4th & 9 at ALST 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 13:20ALST 4th & 10 at ALST 37, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 11:30ALST 4th & 5 at ALST 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 9:53AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 48, up 28Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:42ALST 4th & 4 at ALST 22, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q2 6:56ALST 4th & 8 at ALST 27, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q2 4:36ALST 4th & 21 at ALST 37, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 15:00ALST 4th & 4 at AUB 36, down 40Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%48% to convertField goal0.0%−0.142% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:14ALST 4th & 10 at ALST 41, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 8:51AUB 4th & 4 at ALST 29, up 40Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.158% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
- Q3 4:52ALST 4th & 1 at AUB 45, down 47Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%70% to convertField goal-0.2%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 12:28ALST 4th & 4 at ALST 19, down 40Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:59AUB 4th & 1 at ALST 5, up 54Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%67% to convertField goal99.8%−0.292% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 2:51ALST 4th & 7 at ALST 10, down 54Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ALST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:09AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:07AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:00AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:30AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:56AUB Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:52AUB Touchdown, up 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:37ALST Touchdown, down 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:23AUB Touchdown, up 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:10AUB Touchdown, up 53 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAUBDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
AUBDrive 3FUMBLE4 plays · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
ALSTDrive 4MISSED FG5 plays · 55 yds · 2:060% → 0%
AUBDrive 5TD11 plays · 74 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kam Martin for 15 yds to the AlbSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Darryl Pearson Jr. pass complete to Marquez Spencer for 4 yds to the AlbSt 29Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
99.8%
Darryl Pearson Jr. pass complete to Tyrek Allen for 10 yds to the AlbSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Anthony Craven punt for 41 yds , Ryan Davis returns for no gain to the Aub 19 Ryan Davis fumbled, recovered by Aub Ryan Davis , return for no gain to the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD6 plays · 81 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q1 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
99.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+5
99.8%
Shaun Shivers rush around left end for loss of 7 yards to the AU19 (Ricky Haley), PENALTY ALST offside (Isaac Nickson) 5 yards to the AU31, 1ST DOWN AU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
99.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 7 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
99.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 57 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 8INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
99.8%
Darryl Pearson Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Daniel Thomas return for 29 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 9PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
99.8%
Darryl Pearson Jr. pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 11 yds to the AlbSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 42
-5
99.8%
Anthony Craven punt 53 yards to the AU5, Ryan Davis return to the AU21 (Myles Thomas), PENALTY ALST illegal procedure 5 yards to the ALST37, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD7 plays · 89 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+26
99.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 26 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
99.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 14 yds to the AlbSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
99.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 15 yds to the AlbSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+10
99.8%
Jarrett Stidham right sideline pass incomplete to Asa Martin, PENALTY ALST holding 10 yards to the ALST19, 1ST DOWN AU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-10
99.9%
Darryl Pearson left sideline pass incomplete to Wallace Corker, PENALTY ALST illegal block 10 yards to the ALST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+18
99.9%
Darryl Pearson Jr. pass complete to De'Quan Johnson for 18 yds to the AlbSt 30Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Anthony Craven punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 9:53
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Arryn Siposs punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ezra Gray at the AlbSt 16Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Nate Craig-Myers, broken up by Jeffrey HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 13PUNT TD4 plays · 6 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Darryl Pearson Jr. pass incomplete to Michael Jefferson, broken up by Darrell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+10
99.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Jordyn Peters blocked by Jordyn Peters Devan Barrett return for 10 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 14INT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
AUBDrive 15TD1 play · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
AUBDrive 17SF1 play · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 4:36
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+15
100.0%
Dakota Rocker across the middle pass incomplete to Mich Jefferson (N. Igbinoghene), PENALTY AU roughing passer (Marlon Davidson) 15 yards to the ALST48, 1ST DOWN ALST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Tallesin Farmer run for no gain to the AlbSt 48 ALABAMA ST Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-12
100.0%
Dakota Rocker sacked by Derrick Brown for a loss of 12 yards to the AlbSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19END OF HALF5 plays · 37 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
Dakota Rocker pass complete to Marquez Spencer for 4 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Dakota Rocker pass complete to Ezra Gray for 3 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Dakota Rocker pass incomplete to Wallace Corker, broken up by Big Kat BryantSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 36
-8
99.9%
Dakota Rocker sacked by Jordyn Peters for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FUMBLE3 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
ALSTDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
99.9%
Ezra Gray rush around right end for loss of 3 yards to the ALST38 (K.J. Britt), PENALTY ALST holding 10 yards to the ALST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 20
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Dakota Rocker pass incomplete to Alex Anderson, broken up by Jamien SherwoodSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 20
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Dakota Rocker pass incomplete to Jamir Hannah, broken up by K.J. BrittSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+10
99.9%
Dakota Rocker pass complete to Ezra Gray for 10 yds to the AlbSt 41Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+32
99.9%
Anthony Craven punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AlbSt 48 , Christian Tutt returns for 32 yds to the AlbSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23TD10 plays · 48 yds · 3:59100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 0:000% → 0%
ALSTDrive 25TD3 plays · 16 yds · 0:540% → 0%
AUBDrive 26FUMBLE6 plays · 53 yds · 0:29100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+5
100.0%
Matthew Hill run for 22 yds to the AlbSt 13 Matthew Hill fumbled, forced by Jeffrey Hill, recovered by AlbSt Jeffrey Hill , return for 5 yds to the AlbSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 28TD4 plays · 54 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 29INT3 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
AUBDrive 30TD4 plays · 64 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
100.0%
Cord Sandberg pass complete to Cedric Chambers for 22 yds to the AlbSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 32DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
100.0%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the AlbSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 33PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:51
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
100.0%
Anthony Craven punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Griffin King at the AlbSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 34END OF GAME3 plays · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:00
Darryl Pearson Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Daniel Thomas return for 29 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 11:30
Kam Martin run for 4 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
+0.1