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ARK

Arkansas 27 at Colorado State 34

CSU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:21 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 58 yds , Deon Stewart returns for 45 yds to the ColSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior−16.9Home team on offense−23.0Score differential−12.6Garbage-time factor−6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:35: Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 25 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +8.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:28: Cole Kelley pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 64 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +11.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:07: K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 10 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +22.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 5:19: Wyatt Bryan 22 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +17.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:08: Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +30.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:26CSU 4th & 4 at ARK 37, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.6%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:26ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:19CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:02CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:37ARK 4th & 4 at CSU 10, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:34CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:28ARK 4th & 12 at CSU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:00CSU 4th & 7 at ARK 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:32CSU 4th & 10 at ARK 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:19CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:21CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:27ARK 4th & 12 at CSU 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ARK 4th & 1 at midfield, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:01ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:19CSU 4th & 4 at ARK 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−21.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:09ARK 4th & 21 at ARK 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−12.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:02ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:35ARK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:28ARK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:46CSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:07CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:08CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
13.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
13.8%
Ty Storey pass incomplete, QB hurry by HUBBARD, E., PENALTY AR holding (J. Gibson Jr.) 10 yards to the AR25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-2
13.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to De'Vion Warren for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 23
0
13.8%
Ty Storey pass intercepted Jordan Fogal return for no gain to the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3114% → 15%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
14.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 3 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
14.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+3
14.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 3 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+55
15.2%
Wyatt Bryan 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
15.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.1%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
15.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 7 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
15.1%
Ty Storey pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan FogalSimilar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
15.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 40 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for no gain to the ColSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
15.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 9 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
15.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for no gain to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+7
15.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
15.8%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 21 Izzy Matthews fumbled, forced by McTelvin Agim, recovered by ColSt Izzy MatthewsSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 22
OWN 21
+9
15.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 9 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
15.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for no gain to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
15.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 6:0682% → 82%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
17.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 11 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
17.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
17.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
17.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
17.3%
Chase Hayden run for 7 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
17.3%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+6
17.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
17.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+2
17.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jordan Jones for 2 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+1
20.1%
T.J. Hammonds run for 1 yd to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+5
21.0%
Connor Limpert field goal attempt from 49 MISSED - short,, clock 03:05, PENALTY CSU offside (SUTTON, T.) 5 yards to the CSU26, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
20.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 12 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
20.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+5
20.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
18.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
19.4%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 23Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+18
19.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 18 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
20.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass intercepted Ryan Pulley return for no gain to the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:4680% → 79%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
19.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+9
19.6%
Rakeem Boyd run for 9 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
19.5%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to De'Vion Warren, QB hurry by MCDONALD, M., PENALTY AR holding (Hjalte Froholdt) 10 yards to the AR29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+6
20.3%
T.J. Hammonds run for 6 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
20.3%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to T.J. HammondsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
20.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to T.J. Hammonds, broken up by Tre ThomasSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+1
20.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 34 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for 1 yd to the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
20.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Ryan PulleySimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
20.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete, broken up by Bumper PoolSimilar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
20.2%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
20.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:0479% → 81%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
21.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
20.5%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by Rashad AjayiSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+17
20.9%
Ty Storey run for 17 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
20.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 3
50
+15
19.8%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, PENALTY CSU pass interference (AJAYI, R.) 15 yards to the CSU35, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
19.7%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+18
19.7%
Chase Hayden run for 18 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
19.6%
Chase Hayden run for 3 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
19.6%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+1
21.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 1 yd to the ColSt 10Similar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
18.6%
Connor Limpert 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
19.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 9Similar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 15
OWN 9
0
19.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Darius Wise, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 15
OWN 9
0
19.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by De'Jon HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 15
OWN 9
0
19.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by De'Jon HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 15
OWN 9
0
19.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 70 yds, downed at the Ark 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:4081% → 82%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
19.4%
Rakeem Boyd run for 9 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+36
18.7%
Rakeem Boyd run for 36 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
17.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+19
17.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 19 yds to the ColSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
17.8%
Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-6
17.8%
Ty Storey run for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 13Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
17.7%
Ty Storey pass incomplete, broken up by Josh WatsonSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+31
17.6%
Connor Limpert 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:2818% → 22%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
18.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 20 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
18.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Ryan PulleySimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
18.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 9 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
19.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
19.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+9
19.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Griffin Hammer for 9 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
20.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
20.2%
Rashaad Boddie run for 1 yd to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
19.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Jarques McClellionSimilar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
21.6%
Wyatt Bryan 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0081% → 82%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.2%
Chase Hayden run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
18.9%
Chase Hayden run for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
18.7%
Chase Hayden run for 6 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
18.1%
Chase Hayden run for 5 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
18.0%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+4
18.1%
Ty Storey pass intercepted Emmanuel Jones return for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:2523% → 25%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
22.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 18 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
24.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
24.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
22.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete, broken up by Gabe RichardsonSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
24.8%
Wyatt Bryan 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
24.3%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3526% → 27%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
25.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Brenden Fulton for 20 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
27.7%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+10
26.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Brenden Fulton for 10 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-2
28.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Darius Wise for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
26.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 3:5175% → 87%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
25.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+18
25.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 18 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
24.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
23.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+18
23.3%
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Josh Watson) to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
22.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+11
22.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 11 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
21.5%
Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+25
13.5%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 25 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 39 yds · 0:0015% → 18%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
15.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 30 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
17.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 15 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
18.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Armon Watts for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 36 K.J. Carta-Samuels fumbled, recovered by Ark McTelvin Agim , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
6.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 64 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
8.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Darius WiseSimilar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
8.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
8.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+45
8.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 58 yds , Deon Stewart returns for 45 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2294% → 94%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
6.1%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by V.J. BanksSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
6.3%
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-5
6.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Noah Gatlin) to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
5.5%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+48
6.2%
Connor Limpert 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:419% → 18%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
8.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 8 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
9.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
9.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+54
9.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 54 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
10.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Darius Wise for 2 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
10.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 4Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 4 yds for a TD (K.J. Carta-Samuels pass to Cameron Butler for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4684% → 83%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
16.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 11 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
15.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
15.0%
Cole Kelley pass complete to De'Vion Warren for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+6
15.1%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
50
0
16.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 42 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for no gain to the 50 yard line COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Dajon Owens) to the ColSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 3:5315% → 41%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
15.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Adam Prentice for 4 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+3
15.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+9
14.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 9 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
15.4%
Rashaad Boddie run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+18
15.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 18 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
16.7%
Rashaad Boddie run for no gain to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
16.4%
CARTA-SAMUELS pass incomplete to HAMMER, G. (Jamario Bell), PENALTY AR personal foul (Jared Cornelius) 15 yards to the AR45, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
18.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+31
18.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 31 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
40.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 10 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
30.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-2
29.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
32.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
34.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:0333% → 55%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
33.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 4 yds to the ColSt 40 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Brenden Fulton) to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 16
OWN 30
+15
32.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 15 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+14
36.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 14 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
37.5%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
37.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 7 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+5
37.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Cameron Butler for 5 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
39.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 8 yds to the Ark 21 K.J. Carta-Samuels fumbled, forced by McTelvin Agim, recovered by ColSt Colby MeeksSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+15
39.9%
HILL, C. pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, P. (Ryan Pulley), PENALTY AR pass interference (Ryan Pulley) 15 yards to the AR6, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
39.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Darius WiseSimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
54.5%
Wyatt Bryan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 50%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
45.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 10 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
44.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
43.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-12
43.7%
Cole Kelley sacked by Emmanuel Jones for a loss of 12 yards to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 16
OWN 24
-5
50.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 21
OWN 19
+39
50.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:3058% → 97%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
58.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for 5 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+25
59.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 25 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
62.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+13
66.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 13 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
66.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 14 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
91.6%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Nate Dalton for 10 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST down lat. to La'Michael Pettway for no gain to the Ark 38 for a 1ST down lat. to Cole Kelley for no gain to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:08
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+30.5
TD · Q4 11:07
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 10 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+22.5
FG · Q4 5:19
Wyatt Bryan 22 yd FG GOOD
+17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com