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NWST

Northwestern State 7 at Texas A&M 59

TA&M
2018 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2018 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreNWST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:11 · Parker Pastorello punt for 46 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 3 yds to the TexAM 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior+48.5Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.2Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:11: Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:16: Kellen Mond run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 3NWST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:05NWST 4th & 1 at NWST 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:11NWST 4th & 1 at NWST 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:09TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:51NWST 4th & 14 at NWST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:45TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:33NWST 4th & 17 at NWST 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:09NWST 4th & 7 at NWST 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:50NWST 4th & 13 at NWST 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:27NWST 4th & 6 at TA&M 46, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:29NWST 4th & 7 at NWST 28, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:09NWST 4th & 4 at NWST 41, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:24TA&M 4th & 6 at NWST 34, up 49
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:23NWST 4th & 9 at TA&M 30, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:21NWST 4th & 18 at TA&M 22, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−<0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NWST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:41TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:11TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:16TA&M Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06TA&M Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:20TA&M Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:23TA&M Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:39NWST Touchdown, down 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:00TA&M Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NWSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
99.6%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, False Start (Frank Boudreaux) to the NWSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, False Start (Frank Boudreaux) to the NWSt 20Similar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+3
99.6%
Jared West run for 3 yds to the NWSt 23Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+5
99.6%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Bryson Bourque for 5 yds to the NWSt 28Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+11
99.6%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Jared West for 11 yds to the NWSt 39Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Parker Pastorello punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
3 plays · 93 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
99.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 11 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
99.5%
Kellen Mond run for 9 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+73
99.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 73 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.5%
Stadford Anderson run for 1 yd to the NWSt 32Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Jaylen WatsonSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
99.5%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Jared West for 8 yds to the NWSt 40Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+3
99.5%
Parker Pastorello punt for 46 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 3 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:54100% → 99%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
99.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 13 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
99.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 2 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Roshauud PaulSimilar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Braden Mann punt for 45 yds , Hayden Bourgeois returns for no gain to the NWSt 19 Hayden Bourgeois fumbled, recovered by NWSt Hayden BourgeoisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:101% → 1%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
99.4%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Jazz Ferguson for 11 yds to the NWSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Jazz FergusonSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-4
99.4%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Quan Shorts for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 26Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 14
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Jazz FergusonSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 14
OWN 26
+2
99.3%
Parker Pastorello punt for 43 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 2 yds to the TexAM 33 Roshauud Paul fumbled, recovered by TexAM Roshauud PaulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:5899% → 99%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.3%
Kwame Etwi run for 4 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
99.3%
Trayveon Williams run for 7 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.3%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
99.3%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-9
99.2%
Kellen Mond sacked by Blake Stephenson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
99.1%
Braden Mann punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:051% → 1%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.1%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Jazz Ferguson for 3 yds to the NWSt 23Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
99.1%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, False Start (Dustin Burns) to the NWSt 18Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
99.1%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Marquisian ChapmanSimilar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-5
99.1%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, False Start (Kenny Sheldon) to the NWSt 13Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
99.1%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Jazz Ferguson, broken up by Derrick TuckerSimilar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+4
99.1%
Parker Pastorello punt for 50 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 4 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:3099% → 99%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.1%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Davis, Quartney, PENALTY NWSTATE pass interference (Raymond, Darian) 15 yards to the NWSTATE44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
99.1%
Trayveon Williams run for 15 yds to the NWSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
99.1%
Trayveon Williams run for 11 yds to the NWSt 18 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Keaton Sutherland) to the NWSt 28Similar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 9
OPP 28
-3
99.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 31Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+21
99.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 21 yds to the NWSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the NWSt 7Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.0%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the NWSt 7Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 2:471% → 1%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.1%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 20Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
99.1%
Eppler, Shelton pass incomplete to Ferguson, Jazz, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Johnson, Buddy) 6 yards to the NWSTATE26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NWSTATE.Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
99.1%
Stadford Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 25Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+10
99.1%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Jaylen Watson for 10 yds to the NWSt 35Similar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
99.1%
Stadford Anderson run for 1 yd to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Stadford AndersonSimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.1%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 6 yds to the NWSt 42Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-15
99.0%
Eppler, Shelton pass complete to Ferguson, Jazz for 9 yards to the TEXASAM49, PENALTY NWSTATE personal foul (Boudreaux, Frank) 15 yards to the NWSTATE27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+12
99.1%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Stadford Anderson for 12 yds to the NWSt 39Similar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
99.0%
Parker Pastorello punt for 37 yds, downed at the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:4899% → 100%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 2 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+31
99.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 31 yds to the NWSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
99.0%
Kellen Mond sacked by D'Ronne Littleton for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 18
OWN 49
0
99.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+34
98.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 34 yds to the NWSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.0%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the NWSt 17Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+12
99.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 12 yds to the NWSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the NWSt 2Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.3%
Jared West run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 23Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Jared WestSimilar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-1
99.3%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Jared West for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 22Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.3%
Parker Pastorello punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jace SternbergerSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+21
99.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 21 yds to the NWSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+17
99.5%
Kwame Etwi run for 17 yds to the NWSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
99.5%
Kellen Mond run for 1 yd to the NWSt 16Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+4
99.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 4 yds to the NWSt 12Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+11
99.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 11 yds to the NWSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Kellen Mond run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Jared West run for no gain to the NWSt 24Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.8%
Holgorsen, Clay pass incomplete to Watson, Jaylen, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Oliver, Charles) 15 yards to the NWSTATE39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NWSTATE.Similar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.8%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Jaylen Watson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.8%
Clay Holgorsen run for 4 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Ronald Malbrough, broken up by Debione RenfroSimilar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Quan Shorts, broken up by Keldrick CarperSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Parker Pastorello punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
99.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 13 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 10 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.8%
Kellen Mond run for 9 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+17
99.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 17 yds to the NWSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jace SternbergerSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the NWSt 34Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+8
99.8%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Buckley, Camron, PENALTY NWSTATE pass interference (Sonnier, Malik) 8 yards to the NWSTATE26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 7 yds to the NWSt 19Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+11
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 11 yds to the NWSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Quan Shorts for 8 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Cullen Gillaspia for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+6
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 6 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 15 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon Ausbon, broken up by Rashaun CroneySimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 40 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Jaylen WatsonSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Stadford Anderson run for 3 yds to the NWSt 28Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Bryson Bourque, broken up by Keldrick CarperSimilar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Parker Pastorello punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 16 yds to the NWSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 20 yds to the NWSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Hezekiah JonesSimilar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 15 yds to the NWSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 6 yds to the NWSt 4Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 10 yds to the NWSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Jaylen WatsonSimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Jared West run for 6 yds to the NWSt 41Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Jaylen Watson, broken up by Jayden PeevySimilar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Parker Pastorello punt for 50 yds, downed at the TexAM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:33100% → 100%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Hezekiah JonesSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+11
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 11 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 10 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 10 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 8 yds to the NWSt 47Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the NWSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the NWSt 36Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
99.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the NWSt 34Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Roshauud PaulSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+52
99.9%
Daniel LaCamera 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass complete to Jazz Ferguson for 44 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.9%
Da'Von Smith run for 1 yd to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Charles VaughnSimilar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Quan ShortsSimilar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
99.9%
Austyn Fendrick 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Vernon Jackson run for no gain to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+22
99.9%
Vernon Jackson run for 22 yds to the NWSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
Vernon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NWSt 46Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+8
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Ryan Renick for 8 yds to the NWSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.9%
Vernon Jackson run for 12 yds to the NWSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.9%
Vernon Jackson run for 3 yds to the NWSt 29 Vernon Jackson fumbled, forced by Ian Edwards, recovered by NWSt Desmond Prejean , return for 6 yds to the NWSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 23TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Jazz Ferguson for 71 yds for a TD, (Austyn Fendrick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:21100% → 100%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 13 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Corbin, Jashaun rush for 2 yards to the TEXASAM40, PENALTY NWSTATE offside (Powell, Rashuad) 5 yards to the TEXASAM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 5
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Vernon Jackson run for no gain to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+10
99.9%
Vernon Jackson run for 10 yds to the NWSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Charles Strong Jr. run for 3 yds to the NWSt 44Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+12
100.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 12 yds to the NWSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
100.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 8 yds to the NWSt 24Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+1
100.0%
Charles Strong Jr. run for 1 yd to the NWSt 23Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+6
100.0%
Charles Strong Jr. run for 6 yds to the NWSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
100.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the NWSt 16Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
100.0%
Charles Strong Jr. run for 2 yds to the NWSt 14Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
100.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jalen Preston for 14 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 25MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:260% → 0%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
100.0%
Holgorsen, Clay pass incomplete to Watson, Jaylen, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Elam, Roney) 15 yards to the NWSTATE34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NWSTATE.Similar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Marquisian Chapman for 9 yds to the NWSt 43Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen run for 3 yds to the NWSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
100.0%
Da'Von Smith run for 3 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Leon O'Neal Jr.) to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
100.0%
Da'Von Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 37Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+23
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Jaylen Watson for 9 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeremiah Martin) to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
100.0%
Smith, Da'Von rush for 6 yards to the TEXASAM8, PENALTY NWSTATE illegal block 15 yards to the TEXASAM29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 25
OPP 29
0
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Jaylen WatsonSimilar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 25
OPP 29
0
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Jaylen WatsonSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 25
OPP 29
+7
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Da'Von Smith for 7 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 18
OPP 22
+39
100.0%
Austyn Fendrick 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Connor Blumrick run for no gain to the TexAM 22Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+19
100.0%
Connor Blumrick run for 19 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
100.0%
Jacob Kibodi run for 5 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+8
100.0%
Connor Blumrick pass complete to Andrew Boykin for 8 yds to the NWSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
100.0%
Connor Blumrick run for 1 yd to the NWSt 45Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
100.0%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the NWSt 42Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+15
100.0%
Jacob Kibodi run for 15 yds to the NWSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
100.0%
Deneric Prince run for 18 yds to the NWSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
100.0%
Jacob Kibodi run for 6 yds to the NWSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:11
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 4:16
Kellen Mond run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q2 14:56
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jace Sternberger for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com