2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:01 · Rico Dowdle run for 5 yds to the CCaro 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:02: Rico Dowdle run for 5 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK) — CCU win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:01: Massimo Biscardi 39 yd FG GOOD — CCU win probability +0.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:03: Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 24 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:14: Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 22 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:52: Ty'Son Williams run for 9 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 12:02CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 12:01CCU 4th & 22 at SC 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.3%−0.57% to convertField goalTheir call4.9%72% to makePunt3.7%−1.1average punt
- Q2 12:01SC 4th & 1 at SC 48, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt94.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:01SC 4th & 1 at CCU 29, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.7%71% to convertField goal94.3%−0.458% to makePunt93.4%−1.3average punt
- Q2 6:03CCU 4th & 8 at SC 38, down 18Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snapGo for it4.2%35% to convertField goal4.1%−0.138% to makePuntTheir call4.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 3:15SC 4th & 15 at SC 15, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.3%average punt
- Q2 1:08CCU 4th & 9 at CCU 40, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q3 10:03CCU 4th & 4 at SC 28, down 25Close callKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call1.0%−0.160% to makePunt0.2%−0.9average punt
- Q3 6:52CCU 4th & 2 at CCU 33, down 29Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 13:43SC 4th & 5 at CCU 32, up 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%42% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.151% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:54CCU 4th & 9 at SC 9, down 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.125% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%89% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CCU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 12:02SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:02SC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:03SC Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:14SC Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:52SC Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:02SC Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:49CCU Touchdown, down 30 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick0.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:45SC Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5898% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
97.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 7 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
97.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 15 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+11
97.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 11 yds to the CCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.6%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 20Similar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
97.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 11 yds to the CCaro 31 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the CCaro 21Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+3
97.6%
Charles Ouverson punt for 42 yds , Bryan Edwards returns for 3 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD10 plays · 69 yds · 4:3897% → 97%
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
97.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 4 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+10
97.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 10 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
97.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Ty'Son Williams for 15 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
97.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 6 yds to the CCaro 15Similar
Q1 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 8 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SCaro Jake BentleySimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Kiel Pollard for 8 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4FG19 plays · 53 yds · 8:013% → 4%
Q1 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
97.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 13 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+15
96.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (D.J. Wonnum) to the SCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
96.7%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Steven Montac and Javon Kinlaw for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 15Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-7
96.8%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Bryson Allen-Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5TD15 plays · 72 yds · 5:5896% → 97%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.5%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to OrTre Smith, broken up by Mallory ClaybourneSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
96.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Josh Vann for 2 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
97.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 24 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.0%
Anderson, K. pass incomplete to Williams, M., PENALTY SC pass interference (Rashad Fenton) 7 yards to the CCU32, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
96.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 6 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+22
96.7%
Marcus Outlow run for 7 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Sherrod Greene) to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 4 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
97.2%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Shi Smith, broken up by Silas KellySimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-9
97.1%
Jake Bentley sacked by Silas Kelly for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 15Similar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
97.1%
Joseph Charlton punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marcus Outlow at the CCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:403% → 3%
SCDrive 9TD5 plays · 76 yds · 0:4597% → 99%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
97.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 12 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
97.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 6 yds Bryan Edwards fumbled, forced by C.J. Brewer, , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
50
+14
97.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 14 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
97.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 14 yds to the CCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 22 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · -10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
CCUDrive 11FG11 plays · 47 yds · 4:571% → 2%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+20
98.5%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 20 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
98.4%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Jaycee Horn for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+1
98.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 1 yd to the SCaro 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+7
98.5%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 7 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+5
98.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Keir Thomas) to the SCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12TD8 plays · 64 yds · 3:0099% → 100%
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+19
98.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 19 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
SCDrive 14TD11 plays · 77 yds · 3:47100% → 100%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 2 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+20
99.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 20 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Josh Vann for 8 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
99.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 11 yds to the CCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 8 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15FUMBLE4 plays · 12 yds · 1:020% → 0%
SCDrive 16DOWNS5 plays · 5 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
CCUDrive 17TD9 plays · 68 yds · 3:430% → 0%
Q4 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+10
99.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 10 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
99.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 16 yds to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+12
99.9%
Anderson, K. pass incomplete to Tyler, Ky'Jon, QB hurry by Damani Staley, PENALTY SC pass interference (Nick Harvey) 12 yards to the SC7, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18TD8 plays · 89 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.9%
Michael Scarnecchia pass complete to Bailey Hart for 13 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
100.0%
Michael Scarnecchia pass complete to Randrecous Davis for 27 yds for a TD SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 8 (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19FG11 plays · 66 yds · 3:510% → 0%
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+31
100.0%
Torrance Marable run for 16 yds to the SOCAROLINA 39 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Nick Harvey) to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+13
100.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 13 yds to the SCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20END OF GAME5 plays · 46 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:14
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 22 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q3 6:52
Ty'Son Williams run for 9 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 6:03
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 24 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)
+1