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SFA

Stephen F. Austin 6 at Mississippi State 63

MSST
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:30 · Tucker Day punt for 33 yds, downed at the SFAus 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior+35.4Home team on offense+31.0Score differential+22.1Blowout margin+9.2Garbage-time factor+9.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:44: Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 84 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 13:01: Storm Ruiz 36 yd FG GOOD — SFA win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:53: Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Aeris Williams for 27 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:01: Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Dontea Jones for 17 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SFA made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 13:32SFA 4th & 14 at SFA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:10SFA 4th & 13 at SFA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:27MSST 4th & 7 at SFA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:21SFA 4th & 24 at SFA 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:22SFA 4th & 12 at SFA 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00SFA 4th & 12 at MSST 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:44SFA 4th & 11 at MSST 43, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:56MSST 4th & 6 at SFA 31, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:55MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 29, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:08SFA 4th & 11 at SFA 28, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:33MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 35, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:25SFA 4th & 11 at SFA 40, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:30MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 30, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:55SFA 4th & 13 at MSST 16, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:52SFA 4th & 2 at SFA 31, down 36
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:58SFA 4th & 7 at SFA 23, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:09MSST 4th & 2 at SFA 21, up 50
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:43SFA 4th & 6 at MSST 48, down 50
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:16SFA 4th & 7 at MSST 37, down 57
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:10MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:29MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:44MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:53MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:01MSST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:03MSST Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:06MSST Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:50MSST Touchdown, up 49 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:37MSST Touchdown, up 56 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SFADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:280% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.6%
Dominic Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
99.6%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-2
99.6%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 21Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.5%
Troy Duran punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
1 play · 53 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Kylin Hill for 53 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.5%
Dominic Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFAus 22Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
99.5%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
99.5%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.5%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 44 yds, downed at the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:43100% → 99%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.5%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+34
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Justin Johnson for 34 yds to the SFAus 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the SFAus 23Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete, broken up by Aretavious HendrixSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
99.4%
Jace Christmann 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:061% → 1%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.4%
Josh McGowen run for 6 yds to the SFAus 29Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-6
99.4%
Josh Covey sacked by Gerri Green for a loss of 6 yards to the SFAus 23Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-5
99.4%
SFA Penalty, delay of game (Foster Sawyer) to the SFAus 18Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 15
OWN 18
-9
99.4%
Foster Sawyer sacked by Jaquarius Landrews for a loss of 9 yards to the SFAus 9Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 24
OWN 9
+22
99.4%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 32 yds , Keith Mixon returns for 22 yds to the SFAus 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4699% → 99%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
99.3%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the SFAus 13Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-6
99.3%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the SFAus 9 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SFAus 19Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-5
99.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, delay of game (Keytaon Thompson) to the SFAus 24Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+14
99.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 14 yds to the SFAus 10Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
99.3%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the SFAus 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
99.3%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for 18 yds to the SFAus 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.3%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 44Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete, broken up by Tyler WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 12
OWN 44
+4
99.3%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 44 yds , Keith Mixon returns for 4 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
1 play · 84 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
99.4%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 84 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 9FG
18 plays · 63 yds · 5:331% → 1%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.4%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Remi Simmons for 1 yd to the SFAus 19Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
99.4%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 9
OPP 0
0
99.4%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 8 yards to the SFA27 (Brian Cole), PENALTY MS substitution infraction off-setting, PENALTY SFA holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+26
99.4%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Allen Arclies III for 26 yds to the SFAus 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.4%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 7 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+6
99.4%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for 6 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.4%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+15
99.4%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 15 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
99.4%
Domin Williams rush for 1 yard to the MS27 (Leo Lewis), PENALTY SFA illegal formation 5 yards to the MS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
99.4%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Dominic WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 15
OPP 33
-2
99.4%
Dominic Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+5
99.4%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+24
99.4%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 24 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
99.3%
Dominic Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-11
99.3%
Foster Sawyer sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 19 SFA Penalty, intentional grounding (Foster Sawyer) to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
99.4%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete, broken up by Cameron DantzlerSimilar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+36
99.1%
Storm Ruiz 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:0899% → 99%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Justin Johnson, broken up by Quin JonesSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
99.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 16 yds to the SFAus 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
99.2%
Aeris Williams rush for loss of 3 yards to the MS48 (Teddy Britton), PENALTY MS illegal block (Tyre Phillips) 15 yards to the MS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 25
OWN 36
0
99.2%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 25
OWN 36
+5
99.2%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+21
99.2%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Austin Williams for 21 yds to the SFAus 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.2%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
99.2%
Keytaon Thompson run for 11 yds to the SFAus 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.2%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.3%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Aeris Williams for 27 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
99.0%
Josh McGowen run for 9 yds to the SFAus 25Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+5
98.9%
Josh McGowen run for 5 yds to the SFAus 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.9%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Remi SimmonsSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-3
99.0%
Josh McGowen run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFAus 27Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+18
99.0%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Terian Goree for 18 yds to the SFAus 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
98.9%
Josh McGowen run for 6 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+7
98.9%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.9%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Tamrick PaceSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
98.9%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
98.9%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Terian Goree, broken up by Cameron DantzlerSimilar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
99.0%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 34 yds, downed at the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
14 plays · 91 yds · 4:55100% → 100%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+20
99.5%
Nick Gibson run for 20 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.4%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.4%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Farrod Green for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+16
99.5%
Kylin Hill run for 16 yds to the SFAus 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
99.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 20 yds to the SFAus 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.5%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the SFAus 31Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas, broken up by Davelle FoxSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+16
99.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 16 yds to the SFAus 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-2
99.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Keith Mixon for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 17Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+17
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Dontea Jones for 17 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
99.8%
Dominic Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 37Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+16
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Allen Arclies III for 16 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.8%
Dominic Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
99.8%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, downed at the SFAus 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Dominic Williams run for 2 yds to the SFAus 31Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-3
99.8%
Foster Sawyer sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 3 yards to the SFAus 28Similar
Q3 14:08
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+4
99.8%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 44 yds , Keith Mixon returns for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Tucker Day punt for 48 yds, downed at the SFAus 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
99.8%
Jamall Shaw run for 2 yds to the SFAus 19Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete, broken up by Leo LewisSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+22
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 22 yds to the SFAus 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
99.8%
Jamall Shaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 40Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Terian GoreeSimilar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 36 yds , Keith Mixon returns for 6 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Tucker Day punt for 33 yds, downed at the SFAus 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 19FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
99.8%
Jamall Shaw run for 6 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Leo Lewis) to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Terian Goree for 13 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
99.7%
Jamall Shaw run for 16 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
99.7%
Jamall Shaw run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10 SFA Penalty, Offensive holding (Terian Goree) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 17
OPP 20
+5
99.8%
Jamall Shaw run for 5 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 12
OPP 15
-1
99.8%
Josh Covey run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 13
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Tamrick Pace, broken up by Cameron DantzlerSimilar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+33
99.8%
Storm Ruiz 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
99.9%
Aeris Williams run for 10 yds to the SFAus 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 30 yds for a TD, (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the SFAus 28Similar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 5
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Dominic Williams run for no gain to the SFAus 28Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Josh Thompson for 3 yds to the SFAus 31Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Jake Blumrick pass incomplete to Josh Thompson, broken up by Jamal PetersSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+39
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 39 yds to the SFAus 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the SFAus 18Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+6
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 6 yds to the SFAus 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
99.9%
K. Thompson pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry, PENALTY SFA holding (Davelle Fox) 6 yards to the SFA6, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the SFAus 6Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Dominic Williams run for 3 yds to the SFAus 23Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Dominic Williams run for no gain to the SFAus 23Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Jake Blumrick pass incomplete to Frank IheanachoSimilar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+20
99.9%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 45 yds , Keith Mixon returns for 20 yds to the SFAus 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:32100% → 100%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Keith Mixon for 23 yds to the SFAus 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 25KICKOFF
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
100.0%
Jae'lon Oglesby run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFAus 22Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
100.0%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Frank Iheanacho for 5 yds to the SFAus 27Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Jake Blumrick pass incomplete, broken up by Chris RayfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
Nick Gibson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+9
99.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Nick Gibson for 9 yds to the SFAus 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
99.9%
Jalen Mayden run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 47 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by MisSt Jalen MaydenSimilar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the SFAus 43Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+14
99.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 14 yds to the SFAus 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
100.0%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the SFAus 27Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
100.0%
Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Nick GibsonSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
SFA Penalty, offside defense (Larron Cox) to the SFAus 22Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
99.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the SFAus 21Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 2
OPP 21
-5
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFAus 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MisSt Jalen MaydenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 27INT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
Josh Covey pass complete to Bryce Wempa for 4 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-5
100.0%
SFA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 47Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+3
100.0%
Josh Covey run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 8
50
+7
100.0%
Josh Covey pass complete to Thomas Hutchings for 7 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-5
100.0%
SFA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Jake Blumrick pass intercepted C.J. Morgan return for no gain to the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 4:46100% → 100%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
100.0%
Logan Burnett pass complete to Devonta Jason for 25 yds to the SFAus 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 8 yds to the SFAus 24Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+1
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 1 yd to the SFAus 23Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
100.0%
Logan Burnett run for 3 yds to the SFAus 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the SFAus 17Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the SFAus 14Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+9
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 9 yds to the SFAus 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Lawless KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
100.0%
Thomas Hutchings run for 10 yds to the SFAus 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
100.0%
Thomas Hutchings run for 10 yds to the SFAus 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
100.0%
Josh Covey run for 4 yds to the SFAus 49Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+11
100.0%
Josh Covey pass complete to Frank Iheanacho for 11 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
100.0%
Thomas Hutchings run for 7 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
100.0%
Josh Covey pass incomplete to Frank IheanachoSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-5
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFAus Josh CoveySimilar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+6
100.0%
Josh Covey run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 13:01
Storm Ruiz 36 yd FG GOOD
-0.3
TD · Q2 1:01
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Dontea Jones for 17 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 3:44
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 84 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com