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MISS

Ole Miss 47 at Texas Tech 27

TTU
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:16 · Dominic Panazzolo punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense−8.1Score differential−4.2Garbage-time factor−2.6Pregame prior−6.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:08: Scottie Phillips run for 39 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +7.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:57: Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 14 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +7.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:07: Scottie Phillips run for 65 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +12.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:30: Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +11.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:33: Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 34 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +12.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:12TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:30MISS 4th & 5 at TTU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:57TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:08MISS 4th & 1 at TTU 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−1.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:17TTU 4th & 5 at MISS 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:07MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:16TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:41MISS 4th & 12 at TTU 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−6.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:37MISS 4th & 16 at TTU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:32TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:47MISS 4th & 1 at TTU 49, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:57TTU 4th & 9 at MISS 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−5.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:37MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:40TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−2.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53TTU 4th & 5 at MISS 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−2.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:11TTU 4th & 14 at MISS 14, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:09MISS 4th & 6 at TTU 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−2.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:12TTU 4th & 5 at MISS 5, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:27MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:32TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 10:17MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:08MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:57TTU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:07MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:30TTU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:33MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:0360% → 60%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
40.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 11 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
40.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 58 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 3:4140% → 43%
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
40.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 9Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+4
40.4%
McLane Carter pass complete to Zach Austin for 4 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+10
40.3%
McLane Carter pass complete to Zach Austin for 10 yds to the TexTc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
40.3%
KeSean Carter run for 10 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
40.3%
McLane Carter run for 13 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
40.5%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Da'Leon WardSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
40.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 8 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+31
40.6%
McLane Carter pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 31 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
40.8%
McLane Carter run for no gain to the Miss 15Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
42.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 15 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5140% → 40%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
40.3%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Desmon SmithSimilar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
40.2%
McLane Carter pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 4 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
40.1%
McLane Carter pass incomplete to Ja'Deion HighSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
39.8%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 42 yds, downed at the Miss 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:2060% → 61%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
39.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 7 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-1
39.5%
Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
39.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 6 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
39.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 9 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-7
38.9%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Broderick Washington Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+15
39.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge. TEXAS TECH Penalty, Targeting (Desmon Smith) to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST down. Smith ejected.Similar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
38.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 8 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
38.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
38.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
38.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 19 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
38.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
38.4%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 5 yds to the TexTc 7Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
38.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Octavious CooleySimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
38.6%
Luke Logan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0639% → 37%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.2%
McLane Carter run for no gain to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
39.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Zach AustinSimilar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
37.3%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:2062% → 70%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
37.7%
Scottie Phillips run for 12 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
37.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 7 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+1
37.1%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the TexTc 40Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
37.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+39
30.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 39 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:3032% → 33%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
32.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 10 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
31.8%
Tre King run for 2 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+14
31.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 14 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
32.1%
Tre King run for 9 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
31.9%
Tre King run for 2 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
31.5%
Tre King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
31.1%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+6
30.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 6 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
33.3%
Clayton Hatfield 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0369% → 70%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
31.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 16 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
29.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
29.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 2 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
29.6%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson KnoxSimilar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
30.2%
Mac Brown punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexTc 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2831% → 30%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
30.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
30.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
30.1%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
30.1%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:2471% → 76%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
29.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
29.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 6 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
28.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 6 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+44
27.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 44 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
27.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 11Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-8
27.2%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Joseph Wallace for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 19Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+7
27.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 7 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
24.1%
Luke Logan 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3426% → 34%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
25.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 7 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
26.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 3 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
25.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 19 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
26.7%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ja'Deion HighSimilar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
26.4%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Da'Leon WardSimilar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+15
25.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jaylon Jones) to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
26.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+9
26.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
26.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 1 yd to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
26.0%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
33.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 14 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 1:0069% → 74%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
31.3%
Scottie Phillips run for 15 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
30.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 7 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
29.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+31
29.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 31 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
27.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
27.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-5
28.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 21Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 15
OPP 21
-15
28.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Zikerrion Baker) to the TexTc 36Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 30
OPP 36
+14
29.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 14 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 16
OPP 22
+39
25.6%
Luke Logan 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
26.1%
Alan Bowman run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2328% → 27%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ja'Deion HighSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
28.0%
Tre King run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
27.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
26.8%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3876% → 77%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
23.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 12 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
22.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
21.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 2
50
+1
22.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
22.9%
Mac Brown punt for 37 yds, fair catch by De'Quan Bowman at the TexTc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:4326% → 27%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
25.7%
Tre King run for 6 yds to the TexTc 18Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+9
25.8%
Tre King run for 9 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
25.9%
Tre King run for 3 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
25.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Tre KingSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+22
24.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 22 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
27.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Tre King for 11 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
27.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Zach Austin for 13 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
28.2%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
27.8%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-5
26.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Travis Bruffy) to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
25.2%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
27.1%
Clayton Hatfield 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4372% → 85%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
27.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 3 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
14.6%
Scottie Phillips run for 65 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3716% → 29%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+11
16.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 11 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
17.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 8 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+28
17.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 28 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
17.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 14 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
29.0%
Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4275% → 76%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
24.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 20 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
22.2%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
22.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 1 yd to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
22.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson KnoxSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
24.0%
Mac Brown punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:3525% → 21%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
24.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 37Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+6
23.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Tre King for 6 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
23.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
50
0
25.4%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 10
50
-3
24.9%
Tre King run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 47Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
22.5%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
21.4%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22FUMBLE
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
21.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 9 yds DaMarkus Lodge fumbled, forced by John Bonney, recovered by TexTc Eli HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2625% → 22%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
24.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 5 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+1
25.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-1
24.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
22.1%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:1480% → 93%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
20.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 5 yds to the TEXASTECH 49 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (John Bonney) to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
7.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 34 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25DOWNS
19 plays · 53 yds · 5:0811% → 6%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
11.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Seth Collins for 7 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
9.6%
Tre King run for 4 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
9.6%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-3
9.3%
Tre King run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 41Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+11
8.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 11 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+3
9.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
8.6%
Alan Bowman run for 10 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
8.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Demarcus Felton for 8 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+5
8.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 5 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
8.7%
Alan Bowman run for 6 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+10
7.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 10 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+5
7.4%
Alan Bowman run for 3 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-16
7.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-16 Yards) to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+4
6.9%
De'Quan Bowman run for 4 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-1
6.9%
Tre King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
6.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
0
6.0%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26FG
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:5495% → 99%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
5.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 5 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Targeting (Vaughnte Dorsey) to the Miss 34 for a 1ST down. Dorsey ejected.Similar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
4.8%
Scottie Phillips run for 4 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+9
4.4%
Scottie Phillips run for 9 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+44
4.0%
Scottie Phillips run for 44 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
3.4%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
3.1%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the TexTc 5Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
2.6%
Tylan Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 6Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
0.9%
Luke Logan 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27DOWNS
14 plays · 71 yds · 3:351% → 1%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
1.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Tre King for 3 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
1.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+22
1.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 22 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
1.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Deion High for 19 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
1.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Zach AustinSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
1.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Tre King for 3 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+9
0.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 9 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
1.0%
Tre King run for 1 yd to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
1.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 10 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
1.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Erik EzukanmaSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
1.0%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
0.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 4 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:33
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 34 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q3 7:07
Scottie Phillips run for 65 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 5:30
Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com