2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreAPSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:30 · Jake Camarda punt for 47 yds, fair catch by DeAngelo Wilson at the GEORGIA 24 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (James Cook) to the APeay 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:27: Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 10 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:41: D'Andre Swift run for 8 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 11:35: Elijah Holyfield run for 1 yd to the Geo 22 — UGA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:29: Demetris Robertson run for 72 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:50: Elijah Holyfield run for 17 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 4APSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 10:42UGA 4th & 3 at APSU 17, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%51% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%−<0.180% to makePunt98.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:17APSU 4th & 2 at APSU 44, down 3Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:39APSU 4th & 1 at UGA 20, down 17Close callKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%71% to convertField goalTheir call1.0%−0.175% to makePunt0.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 9:29APSU 4th & 7 at APSU 28, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 2:38APSU 4th & 6 at APSU 29, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 0:06APSU 4th & 3 at APSU 32, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 12:27APSU 4th & 7 at APSU 45, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 10:47UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 45, up 38Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:30APSU 4th & 3 at APSU 27, down 38Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 4:05APSU 4th & 5 at APSU 30, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:30APSU 4th & 7 at APSU 23, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:30UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 29, up 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:54APSU 4th & 3 at UGA 29, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%52% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.158% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:59UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 37, up 45Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 3:27UGA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:41UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:29UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:50UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:28UGA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:44UGA Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1FG11 plays · 41 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+8
99.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 8 yds to the APeay 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
99.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Ahkil Crumpton for 8 yds to the APeay 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to James Cook for 7 yds to the APeay 28Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
99.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 4 yds to the APeay 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 19 yds · 3:251% → 1%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
99.5%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to DJ Montgomery for 5 yds to the APeay 25Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for no gain to the APeay 36 Jeremiah Oatsvall fumbled, recovered by APeay Jeremiah Oatsvall Jeremiah Oatsvall pass incomplete to DJ MontgomerySimilar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+2
99.4%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to DeAngelo Wilson for 2 yds to the APeay 44Similar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
99.4%
Devin Stuart punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ahkil Crumpton at the Geo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD11 plays · 80 yds · 3:4499% → 99%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 10 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+13
99.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for 13 yds to the APeay 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 11 yds to the APeay 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 3 yds to the APeay 26Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+12
99.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 12 yds to the APeay 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
99.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 10 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 4FUMBLE3 plays · -17 yds · 0:331% → 1%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.3%
Oatsvall, Jeremiah rush for 6 yards to the AUSTINPEAY31, PENALTY AUSTINPEAY illegal formation 5 yards to the AUSTINPEAY20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-12
99.3%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for a loss of 12 yards to the APeay 8 Jeremiah Oatsvall fumbled, recovered by Geo D'Andre WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD1 play · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.4%
D'Andre Swift run for 8 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 6MISSED FG12 plays · 55 yds · 5:561% → 1%
UGADrive 7TD3 plays · 79 yds · 1:0699% → 100%
APSUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:561% → 1%
UGADrive 9TD9 plays · 69 yds · 4:38100% → 100%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.6%
Tyler Simmons run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Helmet Contact (-15 Yards) to the Geo 35Similar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Brian Herrien for 4 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+12
99.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Riley Ridley for 12 yds to the APeay 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
99.8%
Elijah Holyfield run for 17 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:070% → 0%
UGADrive 11TD4 plays · 70 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
APSUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Tre Nation for 4 yds to the APeay 29Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Josh Alexander for 3 yds to the APeay 32Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Devin Stuart punt for 33 yds , Ahkil Crumpton returns for no gain to the Geo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 5 yds to the APeay 30 TEAM fumbled, recovered by APeaySimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
99.9%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to DeAngelo Wilson for 12 yds to the APeay 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Devin Stuart punt for 45 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard line AUSTINPEAY Penalty, Failure to Wear Required Equipment (-5 Yards) to the Geo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
APSUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:000% → 0%
UGADrive 17TD5 plays · 60 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 6 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 7 yds to the APeay 11Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 12 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:390% → 0%
UGADrive 19FUMBLE7 plays · 48 yds · 3:20100% → 100%
Q3 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
99.9%
Matthew Downing run for 2 yds to the APeay 20 Matthew Downing fumbled, recovered by APeay Shaun WhittinghillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 6:550% → 0%
Q4 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Baniko Harley for no gain to the APeay 23 AUSTINPEAY Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+9
100.0%
Devin Stuart punt for 51 yds , Ahkil Crumpton returns for 9 yds to the Geo 32 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (Latavious Brini) to the Geo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Matthew Downing pass complete to James Cook for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Luke Ford for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+32
99.9%
Jake Camarda punt for 47 yds, fair catch by DeAngelo Wilson at the GEORGIA 24 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (James Cook) to the APeay 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 33 yds · 3:060% → 0%
UGADrive 23PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:50
Elijah Holyfield run for 17 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 2:41
D'Andre Swift run for 8 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+0.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 11:35
Elijah Holyfield run for 1 yd to the Geo 22
+0.2