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LOU

Louisville 14 at Alabama 51

ALA
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:02 · Skyler DeLong punt for 32 yds, downed at the Lvile 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Pregame prior+30.5Home team on offense+19.2Score differential+14.0Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+6.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:55: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:04: Tua Tagovailoa run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — ALA win probability +1.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:24: Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — ALA win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:09: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 25 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — ALA win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:03: Josh Jacobs run for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones PAT MISSED) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:10LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:04LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:05LOU 4th & 26 at LOU 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:18ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:45LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:02ALA 4th & 4 at LOU 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:27LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:10LOU 4th & 21 at LOU 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:01LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 20, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:45ALA 4th & 3 at LOU 21, up 34
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:34LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 32, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:44ALA 4th & 9 at LOU 9, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:38LOU 4th & 4 at ALA 5, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:39ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 14, up 44
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:55ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:04ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:24ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:09ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:03ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:27LOU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:16ALA Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:31ALA Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:55LOU Touchdown, down 38 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3095% → 95%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
95.1%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-6
95.0%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by G.G. Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+14
94.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 14 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
94.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 7 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+28
94.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 28 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
94.7%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
94.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:365% → 6%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 13 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
94.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 5 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
94.5%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
94.4%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Trey SmithSimilar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
94.5%
Mason King punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3FUMBLE
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:5695% → 94%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
94.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 6 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
94.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
94.3%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 7 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
94.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Josh JacobsSimilar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+26
94.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 26 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
94.3%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+18
94.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 18 yds DeVonta Smith fumbled, forced by Cornelius Sturghill, recovered by Lvile Dorian EtheridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:556% → 6%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
94.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
94.0%
Dae Williams run for 4 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-5
94.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 11
OWN 16
0
94.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Chatarius AtwellSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
94.0%
Mason King punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:5194% → 95%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+32
94.1%
Damien Harris run for 32 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
94.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 6 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
94.0%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
93.9%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.9%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6INT
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:396% → 6%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Xavier McKinney) to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
94.5%
Trey Smith run for 7 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
94.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
50
-2
94.1%
Jawon Pass run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+4
94.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Trey Smith for 4 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+11
94.1%
Jawon Pass run for 11 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
93.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
93.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+3
93.9%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+25
93.6%
Jawon Pass pass intercepted Deionte Thompson return for 25 yds to the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3694% → 97%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.4%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
94.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 11 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+49
94.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 49 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
94.6%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.6%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:553% → 3%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
96.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Kemari Averett for 2 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+27
96.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Trey Smith for 27 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
96.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 18 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
96.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Colin Wilson) to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 15
OPP 44
-11
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 26
OWN 45
0
96.7%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Kemari AverettSimilar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 26
OWN 45
0
96.8%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Chatarius AtwellSimilar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 26
OWN 45
+12
96.7%
Mason King punt for 45 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 12 yds to the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3297% → 97%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
97.0%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+9
97.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 9 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
97.2%
Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
97.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
97.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
97.0%
Skyler DeLong punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:193% → 3%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
96.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 22 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
96.5%
Dae Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
96.7%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
96.8%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Devante PeeteSimilar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
96.8%
Mason King punt for 40 yds, downed at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:2897% → 98%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
97.3%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
97.4%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
97.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Ross Pierschbacher) to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+27
97.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 27 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Damien HarrisSimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
97.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+6
97.6%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
97.7%
Skyler DeLong punt for 32 yds, downed at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:183% → 3%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
97.2%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Cole Bentley for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 8Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+1
97.3%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 9Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 16
OWN 9
0
97.4%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 16
OWN 9
+31
97.3%
Mason King punt for 47 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 31 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:1298% → 99%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
98.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 25 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.3%
Dae Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:354% → 1%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.1%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.4%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 27Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
99.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 19 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 6 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-10
99.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Bentley) to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 14
OWN 42
-1
99.5%
Dae Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 15
OWN 41
-6
99.5%
Jawon Pass sacked by Xavier McKinney and Anfernee Jennings for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 21
OWN 35
+16
99.5%
Mason King punt for 44 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 16 yds to the Alab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.6%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+32
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 32 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
99.6%
Josh Jacobs run for 9 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Josh Jacobs run for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:280% → 0%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-12 Yards) to the Lvile 13Similar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-4
99.6%
Dae Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 9Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 26
OWN 9
0
99.6%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Keion WakefieldSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 26
OWN 20
+26
99.7%
Jawon Pass run for 11 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Anfernee Jennings) to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.6%
Jawon Pass run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
99.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Quinnen Williams) to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-7
99.6%
Jawon Pass run for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+15
99.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Christian Miller) to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+47
99.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 47 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
99.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 11Similar
Q3 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.7%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-1
99.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dae Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 12Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
99.7%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Kemari Averett for 12 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.8%
Dae Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-3
99.8%
Jawon Pass sacked by Dylan Moses for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 11
OWN 23
-3
99.8%
Jawon Pass sacked by Isaiah Buggs for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Mason King punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+12
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Russ Yeast) to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-2
99.8%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+3
99.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
99.8%
Austin Jones 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
99.9%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+23
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 8 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Saivion Smith) to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dae WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 14:34
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+21
99.9%
Mason King punt for 58 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 21 yds to the ALABAMA 47 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Joshua McMillon) to the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22MISSED FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:31100% → 100%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 6 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+17
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 17 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+8
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 11 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+2
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+10
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 10 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.9%
Mac Jones run for 1 yd to the Lvile 4Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Miller ForristallSimilar
Q4 7:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
99.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
99.9%
Austin Jones 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+45
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass intercepted for a TD Shyheim Carter return for 45 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+26
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Devante Peete for 15 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (LaBryan Ray) to the Alab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
99.9%
Colin Wilson run for 6 yds to the Alab 5Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Colin Wilson run for no gain to the Alab 5Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 4
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Colin WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+1
99.9%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Alab 9Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+5
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Skyler DeLong punt for 38 yds, downed at the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
100.0%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
100.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Kemari Averett for 8 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+30
100.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Chatarius Atwell for 30 yds to the Alab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
100.0%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Kemari Averett for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Ronnie Clark run for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
100.0%
Ronnie Clark run for 4 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
100.0%
Ronnie Clark run for 2 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:24
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 0:09
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 25 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q1 4:04
Tua Tagovailoa run for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com