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ULM

UL Monroe 10 at Florida State 42

FSU
2017 · Week 14 · Dec 2, 2017 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:36 · Harrison Heim punt for 44 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 16 yds to the FlaSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+45.0Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:19: James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 14 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:33: Cam Akers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:34: Craig Ford 28 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +1.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:51: Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 6 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +4.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:31: Cam Akers run for 24 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 13:36ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:07ULM 4th & 10 at FSU 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:01ULM 4th & 3 at FSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:44ULM 4th & 7 at FSU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:47FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:51ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 39, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:34ULM 4th & 9 at FSU 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:10ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:30ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 24, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:21ULM 4th & 13 at FSU 27, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:32FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 32, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:26ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 45, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:15FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:19FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:33FSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:51ULM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:31FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:50FSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:14FSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:045% → 5%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.4%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
95.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 6 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+16
95.3%
Harrison Heim punt for 44 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 16 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:4495% → 95%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
95.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 3 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
95.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 9 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.0%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+20
94.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Ermon Lane for 20 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
94.8%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+11
94.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 11 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
94.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 7 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
94.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
94.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the LaMon 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 45 yds · 2:595% → 6%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
94.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+16
94.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 16 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
94.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 5 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+9
94.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 9 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
94.1%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
94.0%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
93.9%
Derrick Gore run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.9%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
93.9%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
94.0%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
94.1%
Harrison Heim punt for 38 yds, downed at the FlaSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4INT
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:3794% → 94%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
94.1%
Vickers, J rush up middle for 2 yards to the FS3 (Ford, Derion), PENALTY ULM offside defense (Louis, Donald) 5 yards to the FS6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 5
OWN 6
0
94.0%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 6
0
93.9%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+6
93.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 6 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
93.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+21
93.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnathan Vickers for 21 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
93.6%
James Blackman run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
93.7%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
93.7%
James Blackman pass intercepted Juwan Offray return for no gain to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:387% → 8%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
93.1%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
93.1%
Evans, Caleb deep pass complete to Williams, Brian for 35 yards to the FS38, out-of-bounds (Taylor, L), PENALTY ULM ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ULM22, NO PLAY, clock 00:08.Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+20
93.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 20 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
92.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 11 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
92.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 12 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
92.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 1 yd to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+6
92.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 6 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
92.1%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 3
OPP 28
0
92.4%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:5793% → 95%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+35
92.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 35 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
93.0%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+14
92.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 14 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
92.8%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
92.7%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 9Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-5
92.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, delay of game (James Blackman) to the LaMon 14Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
94.6%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 14 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 3:356% → 6%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
94.0%
Marcus Green run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+2
94.1%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+15
94.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 15 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
93.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
93.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 11 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
93.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
93.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 8 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-5
93.4%
Evans, Caleb rush quarterback draw for 14 yards to the FS30 (James, D), PENALTY ULM FL 5 yards to the FS49, NO PLAY, clock 06:12.Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
94.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
94.2%
Harrison Heim punt for 32 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:3194% → 94%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
94.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Ermon Lane for 12 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
94.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
93.9%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 9 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
94.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.2%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
94.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jacques PatrickSimilar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
93.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
93.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:376% → 6%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
93.9%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+14
93.9%
Caleb Evans run for 14 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
93.8%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
93.8%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+3
93.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 3 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 5
OWN 39
-2
93.6%
Harrison Heim punt for 48 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:1195% → 94%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
94.6%
Cam Akers run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
94.5%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+5
94.0%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+26
93.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 26 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2194% → 98%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+45
94.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 45 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
94.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+13
94.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Ermon Lane for 13 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
94.6%
Cam Akers run for 10 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.1%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:503% → 4%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.4%
Brandius Batiste run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 7
50
+12
97.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 12 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
97.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 14 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
97.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 12 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
97.4%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
97.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Austin VaughnSimilar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+2
97.7%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
95.9%
Craig Ford 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1397% → 97%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
97.0%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
97.0%
James Blackman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+38
97.2%
James Blackman pass intercepted Cortez Sisco Jr. return for 23 yds to the FLORIDAST 39 UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Johnson) to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:344% → 9%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
95.6%
Caleb Evans run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+13
95.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 13 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
95.7%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 6 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:0493% → 98%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
93.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 25 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
93.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
97.7%
Cam Akers run for 24 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:123% → 3%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
96.5%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
96.6%
Caleb Evans sacked by Jalen Wilkerson and Arthur Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+24
96.8%
Harrison Heim punt for 38 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 24 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:2698% → 100%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
97.8%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
97.9%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
98.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+14
98.1%
Cam Akers run for 14 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
98.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 9 yds to the LaMon 6 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Ermon Lane) to the LaMon 16Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+8
98.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Marcus Hubbard) to the LaMon 8Similar
Q4 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the LaMon 5Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the LaMon 2Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:581% → 1%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.5%
Marcus Green run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
99.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 24Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ Turner, broken up by Tarvarus McFaddenSimilar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+47
99.5%
Harrison Heim punt for 37 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FLORIDAST 39 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Amir Rasul) to the FlaSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:53100% → 100%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
99.7%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
99.7%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.7%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+23
99.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 23 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+10
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 10 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
99.8%
Ryan Green run for 4 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+15
99.8%
Ryan Green run for 15 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Ryan Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 3 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brandius BatisteSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+33
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 33 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-3
100.0%
Caleb Evans sacked by Janarius Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian Williams, broken up by Hamsah NasirildeenSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 13
OPP 27
0
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian Williams, broken up by Stanford Samuels IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
100.0%
Amir Rasul run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Gabe Nabers run for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+2
100.0%
J.J. Cosentino pass complete to Justin Motlow for 2 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+42
100.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 42 yds , Marcus Green returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 12 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tyler Lamm for 4 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Darius Rodrigue, broken up by A.J. WestbrookSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brandius BatisteSimilar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+13
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 13 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian Williams, broken up by Levonta TaylorSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
100.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:51
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 6 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-4.5
TD · Q3 3:31
Cam Akers run for 24 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q3 12:33
Cam Akers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com