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APSU

Austin Peay 33 at UCF 73

UCF
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:25 · Mac Loudermilk punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kyran Moore at the APeay 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Pregame prior+38.7Home team on offense+12.0Score differential+4.2Garbage-time factor+4.4Blowout margin−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:38: Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Trey Pruitt for 12 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield KICK) — APSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:14: Dredrick Snelson 27 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:57: Tre'Quan Smith 15 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:49: Kyran Moore 35 Yd pass from Jeremiah Oatsvall (Logan Birchfield Kick) — APSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:26: Dredrick Snelson 42 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5APSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UCF 4th & 3 at APSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:26APSU 4th & 1 at UCF 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:14APSU 4th & 10 at APSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:52UCF 4th & 3 at APSU 3, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:38APSU 4th & 3 at UCF 12, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:38UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:25UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 46, up 12
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 16, down 19
    Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:53APSU 4th & 9 at UCF 38, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:43UCF 4th & 7 at APSU 34, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:15APSU 4th & 25 at APSU 20, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:06APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 30, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9APSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:07UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:26APSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:14UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:55UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:27APSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:38APSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:00UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:47APSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:14UCF Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 10:57UCF Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 7:49APSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 6:26UCF Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 14:15UCF Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 3:06UCF Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 4:5399% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
99.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 7 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
99.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
99.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 9 yds to the APeay 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-5
99.3%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+3
99.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the APeay 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
99.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for no gain to the APeay 47Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+14
99.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 14 yds to the APeay 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
99.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 19 yds to the APeay 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taj McGowan for 3 yds to the APeay 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
99.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 3 yds to the APeay 8Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+4
99.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taj McGowan for 4 yds to the APeay 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.1%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 2TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:411% → 2%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.0%
Kentel Williams run for 13 yds to the APeay 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.0%
Kentel Williams run for 4 yds to the APeay 42Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+10
99.0%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Elijah Brown for 10 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.0%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Kyran Moore for 9 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+11
99.0%
Prince Momodu run for 11 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
98.8%
WILLIAMS, Kente rush for 28 yards to the UCF0, clock 06:58, PENALTY APSU holding (EWOLDT, Max) 10 yards to the UCF38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+2
98.8%
Kentel Williams run for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 20
OPP 38
0
98.8%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 18
OPP 36
+20
98.8%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Kentel Williams for 20 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
98.7%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 7 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
98.7%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for 2 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
98.7%
Prince Momodu run for no gain to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+7
98.3%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 7 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.6%
Tre Nation run for 1 yd to the APeay 26Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
98.6%
Tre Nation run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 25Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass incomplete to Tre NationSimilar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.6%
Devin Stuart punt for 36 yds , Mike Hughes returns for 14 yds to the APeay 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:4199% → 99%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
98.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 5 yds to the APeay 42Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+6
98.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 6 yds to the APeay 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
98.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 13 yds to the APeay 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
98.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 3 yds to the APeay 20Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+18
98.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 18 yds to the APeay 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.8%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:281% → 2%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.6%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
98.6%
Ahmaad Tanner run for no gain to the APeay 21Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+74
98.7%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Kyran Moore for 74 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 0
OWN 5
0
98.2%
Ryan Rockensuess 0 Yd Fumble Return (Logan Birchfield PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:3598% → 98%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.3%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, illegal procedure (Logan Birchfield) to the APeay 45Similar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+6
98.3%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 6 yds to the APeay 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
98.3%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 12 yds to the APeay 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
98.3%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 6 yds to the APeay 21Similar
Q2 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
98.3%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 1 yd to the APeay 5Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cordarrian Richardson for 3 yds to the APeay 2Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
98.3%
Cordarrian Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 3Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
98.2%
Matthew Wright 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 8FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:552% → 1%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
98.1%
Tre Nation run for no gain to the APeay 16Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+20
98.7%
Josh Alexander run for 1 yd Josh Alexander fumbled, forced by Pat Jasinski, recovered by UCF Shaquem Griffin , return for 20 yds, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:191% → 2%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.7%
Tre Nation run for 6 yds to the APeay 31Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
98.6%
Prince Momodu run for 3 yds to the APeay 34Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
98.6%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for 3 yds to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
98.6%
Tre Nation run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 36Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+9
98.7%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Kyran Moore for 9 yds to the APeay 45Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+21
98.6%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for 6 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, personal foul (Kyle Gibson) to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
98.5%
UCF Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
98.5%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 2 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+2
98.2%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for 2 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+3
98.3%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for 3 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+12
97.6%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Trey Pruitt for 12 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:3898% → 99%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
97.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 9 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
97.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick Snelson, broken up by DeKeivis PerrySimilar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
97.7%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+14
97.6%
Greg McCrae run for 14 yds to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
97.8%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the APeay 32Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+29
97.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 29 yds to the APeay 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.8%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the APeay 2Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.5%
McKenzie Milton 2 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:2298% → 98%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taj McGowan for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
97.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
97.9%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Nate Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+5
97.8%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, Defensive offside (Jaison Williams) to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
97.9%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
97.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
97.7%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kyran Moore at the APeay 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
97.6%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for 8 yds to the APeay 20Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+25
97.5%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass intercepted Titus Davis return for 24 yds to the APeay 44 UCF Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (1 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:4998% → 99%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
97.9%
MILTON, M. pass complete to SMITH, Tre'Quan for 16 yards to the APSU1, PENALTY UCF holding (EVANS, Aaron) 10 yards to the APSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+27
99.0%
Dredrick Snelson 27 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
98.3%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
98.3%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 2 yds to the APeay 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+3
98.4%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Kyran Moore for 3 yds to the APeay 12Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+4
98.3%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to DJ Montgomery for 4 yds to the APeay 16Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
98.3%
Devin Stuart punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APeay 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:0199% → 100%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
98.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 17 yds to the APeay 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
98.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 11 yds to the APeay 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
98.9%
Cordarrian Richardson run for a loss of 7 yards to the APeay 20Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+5
98.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 5 yds to the APeay 15Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+15
99.6%
Tre'Quan Smith 15 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:080% → 2%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.6%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 19 yds to the APeay 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.5%
Prince Momodu run for 3 yds to the APeay 47Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+18
99.5%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Gorel Soumare for 18 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
99.5%
Ahmaad Tanner run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+1
99.5%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+35
98.0%
Kyran Moore 35 Yd pass from Jeremiah Oatsvall (Logan Birchfield Kick)Similar
Q3 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+17
98.2%
Devin Stuart punt for 47 yds , Taj McGowan returns for 17 yds to the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:2399% → 100%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.8%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+9
98.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
50
+8
98.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 8 yds to the APeay 42Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+42
99.7%
Dredrick Snelson 42 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:330% → 0%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
50
-4
99.7%
Tre Nation run for a loss of 4 yards to the APeay 46Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+1
99.7%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Tre Nation for 1 yd to the APeay 47Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+14
99.8%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to DJ Montgomery for 14 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Tre Nation run for no gain to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
99.7%
Tre Nation run for 1 yd to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
99.7%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass incomplete AUSTINPEAY Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.8%
Noah Vedral run for 9 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
99.8%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, Defensive offside (Jaison Williams) to the APeay 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
99.8%
Noah Vedral run for 11 yds to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.8%
Noah Vedral run for 2 yds to the APeay 35Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+1
99.8%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 1 yd to the APeay 34Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+25
99.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 25 yds to the APeay 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
99.8%
Marlon Williams run for 7 yds to the APeay 2Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Cordarrian Richardson 2 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
Baniko Harley run for 6 yds to the APeay 30Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Rodney Saulsberry Jr. run for 5 yds to the APeay 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
99.9%
Baniko Harley run for 1 yd to the APeay 36 AUSTINPEAY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the APeay 26Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 19
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 6 yds to the APeay 32Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-12
99.9%
Baniko Harley run for a loss of 12 yards to the APeay 20Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 25
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Prince Momodu pass incomplete to Ahmaad Tanner AUSTINPEAY Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 25
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Devin Stuart punt for 53 yds , Chris Johnson returns for no gain to the UCF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 7:58100% → 100%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-11
99.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Alex Harris for 4 yds to the UCF 31 UCF Penalty, illegal block (Emmanuel Logan-Greene) to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 21
OWN 16
-4
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 25
OWN 12
+8
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 17
OWN 20
-3
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 20
OWN 17
+15
99.9%
LOUDERMILK, Mac punt 39 yards to the APSU44, fair catch by MOORE, Kyran, PENALTY APSU roughing the kicker (SHEPPARD, Elija) 15 yards to the UCF32, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Alex Harris for 10 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
99.9%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
99.9%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 7 yds to the APeay 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 2 yds to the APeay 44Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+33
99.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Alex Harris for 33 yds to the APeay 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.9%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 1 yd to the APeay 10Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+4
99.9%
Noah Vedral run for 4 yds to the APeay 6Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-5
99.9%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the APeay 11Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
100.0%
Noah Vedral 11 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
100.0%
K'Jay Johnson run for 8 yds to the APeay 14Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+7
100.0%
K'Jay Johnson run for 7 yds to the APeay 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
100.0%
K'Jay Johnson run for no gain to the APeay 21Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
100.0%
Baniko Harley run for 4 yds to the APeay 22 Baniko Harley fumbled, forced by Eric Mitchell, recovered by APeay Elijah BrownSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+8
100.0%
K'Jay Johnson run for 8 yds to the APeay 30Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+2
100.0%
K'Jay Johnson run for 2 yds to the APeay 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
100.0%
K'Jay Johnson run for 6 yds to the APeay 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:49
Kyran Moore 35 Yd pass from Jeremiah Oatsvall (Logan Birchfield Kick)
-1.5
TD · Q2 0:14
Dredrick Snelson 27 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)
+1.1
TD · Q3 10:57
Tre'Quan Smith 15 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com