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MEM

Memphis 13 at UCF 40

UCF
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+1.7UCF 65.8%Taj McGowan run for 1 yd for a TD,(Two-Point Conversion failed ) UCFPenalty, Offensive pass interference (Yards) declinedAWAY 0 - HOME 6 · Q1 8:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:11 · Taj McGowan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) UCF Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense+1.3Score differential+0.1Pregame prior+12.0Garbage-time factor+0.6Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:15: Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Smith KICK) — MEM win probability +3.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:29: Matthew Wright 28 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +2.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:23: Adrian Killins Jr. run for 96 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +7.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:08: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 34 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +10.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:19: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +9.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:11UCF 4th & 1 at MEM 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:33UCF 4th & 7 at MEM 38, down 1
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00MEM 4th & 1 at UCF 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:11MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:29UCF 4th & 2 at MEM 11, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%−0.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:00UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:57MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 39, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:08MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 48, down 16
    Close callPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:05UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 46, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:53MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 30, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:53MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 37, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:52MEM 4th & 2 at UCF 2, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:01UCF 4th & 13 at MEM 17, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:58UCF 4th & 7 at MEM 20, up 33
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:11UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:15MEM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:23UCF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:08UCF Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:19UCF Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:52UCF Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
19 plays · 92 yds · 6:4964% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
63.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 12 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
63.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
63.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+12
63.5%
Taj McGowan run for 12 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
63.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
63.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+12
63.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 12 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
63.5%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
63.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+6
63.5%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
63.5%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+7
63.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+29
63.5%
Taj McGowan run for 29 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
63.5%
Taj McGowan run for 2 yds to the Memph 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.5%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 1 yd to the Memph 2Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
64.1%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the Memph 1Similar
Q1 8:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.8%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) UCF Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:5635% → 39%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
65.4%
Tony Pollard run for 7 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
65.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+5
65.3%
Tony Pollard run for 5 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
65.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
64.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+39
64.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 33 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
64.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 4 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:4262% → 63%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
62.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+27
62.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 27 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
63.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+2
62.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 2 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-5
63.1%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+8
62.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taj McGowan for 8 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
63.0%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:2738% → 39%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
62.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 16 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
61.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 10 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
61.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 20 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
60.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
59.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
59.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
-6
60.8%
Tony Pollard run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5INT
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
63.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 25 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
64.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 26 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
64.7%
MILTON, M. pass complete to ANDERSON, O. for 3 yards to the MEM6 (COOK, Jonathan), PENALTY UCF illegal block (AKINS, Jordan) 10 yards to the MEM19, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
0
64.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+1
64.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the Memph 18Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
0
62.7%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted, touchback. Terrell Carter return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
61.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
61.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-5
61.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
61.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
62.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 40 yds , Mike Hughes returns for no gain to the UCF 43 Mike Hughes fumbled, recovered by UCF Mike HughesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:0363% → 66%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
63.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 25 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
64.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+16
63.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 16 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
64.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 8 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
64.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
63.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+28
66.1%
Matthew Wright 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FUMBLE
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:0036% → 39%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 26Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
64.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 15 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
63.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 1 yd to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+9
63.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 9 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
62.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+35
62.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 35 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
61.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Mike HughesSimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
61.4%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 16 Riley Ferguson fumbled, recovered by UCF Pat Jasinski , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
66.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Austin HallSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-1
65.9%
Taj McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
65.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan Akins, broken up by Jonathan CookSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
64.7%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 46 yds, fair catch by John Williams at the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0436% → 34%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
63.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil Mayhue, broken up by Mike HughesSimilar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
63.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
64.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Darrell HendersonSimilar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
66.1%
Nick Jacobs punt for 52 yds, downed at the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
2 plays · 91 yds · 0:1366% → 74%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
65.8%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 4Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 15
OWN 4
+96
73.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 96 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0025% → 27%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
75.4%
Tony Pollard run for 3 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
75.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil Mayhue, broken up by Brandon MooreSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+17
76.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 17 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
74.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
50
+35
73.1%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Mike Hughes return for 35 yds to the Memph 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:4777% → 86%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
76.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
76.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+5
75.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive offside (Jonathan Wilson) to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
75.9%
Otis Anderson run for 7 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
86.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 34 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
82.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 5 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, illegal use of hands (15 Yards) to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
81.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil Mayhue, broken up by Brandon MooreSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+6
82.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 6 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
81.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 34 yds, downed at the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
86.4%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+6
86.4%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
81.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
82.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
82.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Patrick Taylor Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+12
82.8%
Nick Jacobs punt for 52 yds , Mike Hughes returns for 12 yds to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:5584% → 95%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
84.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 7 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+11
84.5%
Taj McGowan run for 11 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
84.9%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
84.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+18
84.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 18 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
84.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 14 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
84.9%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
94.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18INT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
93.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 17 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
93.4%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
93.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony Pollard, broken up by Pat JasinskiSimilar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+25
93.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 25 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
92.7%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Kyle Gibson return for no gain to the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
94.7%
Otis Anderson run for 7 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+24
94.8%
Otis Anderson run for 24 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
95.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
95.1%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
95.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 2 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
95.1%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-5
95.1%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 13
OWN 48
-2
94.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taj McGowan for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 15
OWN 46
+46
94.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 46 yds , John Williams returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20INT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
96.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 14 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
96.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
96.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 24Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+6
96.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 6 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+4
96.2%
Jonathan Wilson run for 4 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
96.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 40 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Phil Mayhue) to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 14
OWN 30
0
96.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+7
96.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 7 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
96.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+14
96.4%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Seyvon Lowry return for 14 yds to the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 1:2798% → 100%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
98.1%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 1 yd to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
98.1%
Cordarrian Richardson run for no gain to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+25
99.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 54 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 3 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
99.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 7 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 5
50
+5
99.8%
FERGUSON, Riley pass incomplete to JONES, Kedarian (HUGHES, Mike), PENALTY UCF offside defense (GUERAD, Tony) 5 yards to the UCF45, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
99.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 21 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Patrick Taylor Jr.Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+15
99.7%
FERGUSON, Riley pass incomplete to COXIE, Damonte (HUGHES, Mike), PENALTY UCF pass interference (HUGHES, Mike) 15 yards to the UCF6, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 5 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 2Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Brandon MooreSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-9
99.6%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Gabriel Luyanda for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 7:24100% → 100%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
99.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
99.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+10
99.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 10 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
99.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 18 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
99.8%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 10 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
99.8%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 9 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
99.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.8%
Cordarrian Richardson run for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+1
99.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the Memph 31Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+17
99.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 17 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
99.8%
Cordarrian Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 17 Cordarrian Richardson fumbled, recovered by UCF McKenzie MiltonSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 13
OPP 17
0
99.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 13
OPP 17
0
99.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+35
99.9%
Matthew Wright 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for 12 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
Cedric Jordan-Williams run for 1 yd to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
100.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 3 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+25
100.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 25 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
100.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 7 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
FERGUSON, Riley sacked for loss of 12 yards to the MEM40 (BURGESS-BECKER), PENALTY UCF offside defense (BURGESS-BECKER) 5 yards to the UCF43, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+29
100.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Mechane Slade for 15 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
100.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 14 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:08
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 34 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q3 11:19
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 4:23
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 96 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com