2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadCHSO aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreCHSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:32 · Kyle Reighard punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ChaSo 32 , Luke Timian returns for 7 yds to the ChaSo 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:00: Peyton Ramsey 0 Yd Fumble Return (Griffin Oakes Kick) — IU win probability +1.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CHSO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:41: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ryan Watercutter for 5 yds to the Ind 48 — IU win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:34: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Taysir Mack for 45 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK) — IU win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- SACK · Q3 13:51: Shane Bucenell sacked by Jacob Robinson and Greg Gooch for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 33 — CHSO win probability +1.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CHSO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:04: Griffin Oakes 21 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CHSO made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
- Q1 15:00CHSO 4th & 6 at CHSO 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.7%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q1 10:56IU 4th & 12 at CHSO 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snapGo for it94.3%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call94.4%86% to makePunt94.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 10:56CHSO 4th & 9 at CHSO 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q1 10:03IU 4th & 1 at CHSO 32, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.4%71% to convertField goal94.2%−0.251% to makePunt94.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 6:32CHSO 4th & 14 at CHSO 3, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q2 15:00CHSO 4th & 1 at IU 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.1%71% to convertField goal6.7%−0.456% to makePunt6.5%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:17IU 4th & 11 at IU 30, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.6%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q2 11:53CHSO 4th & 6 at IU 43, down 10Close callPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.6%40% to convertField goal7.3%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call7.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:00CHSO 4th & 4 at CHSO 21, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.347% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q2 6:28IU 4th & 12 at CHSO 38, up 17Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.124% to convertField goal95.2%38% to makePuntTheir call95.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:47CHSO 4th & 10 at CHSO 16, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q3 12:50CHSO 4th & 21 at IU 38, down 24Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.29% to convertField goal2.4%38% to makePuntTheir call2.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 7:04IU 4th & 3 at CHSO 3, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it98.1%44% to convertField goalTheir call97.9%−0.293% to makePunt96.6%−1.6average punt
- Q3 7:04CHSO 4th & 7 at CHSO 10, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 5:21CHSO 4th & 6 at IU 44, down 27Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%40% to convertField goal0.1%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:58IU 4th & 3 at IU 14, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00CHSO 4th & 19 at CHSO 35, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.311% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:07IU 4th & 10 at CHSO 34, up 27Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.8%47% to makePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:46CHSO 4th & 1 at CHSO 30, down 27Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:39IU 4th & 10 at IU 28, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:17CHSO 4th & 15 at CHSO 20, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 3:26IU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:00IU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34IU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCHSODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+16
96.7%
Kyle Reighard punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ChaSo 45 , Luke Timian returns for 16 yds to the ChaSo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2FG10 plays · 33 yds · 2:3597% → 96%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
96.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 3 yds to the ChaSo 42Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+18
96.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 18 yds to the ChaSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-8
96.5%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Zane Cruz for a loss of 8 yards to the ChaSo 32Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 18
OPP 32
+23
96.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 23 yds to the ChaSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 0
OPP 8
-15
96.5%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Simmie Cobbs Jr.) to the ChaSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 10:56
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
96.1%
Kyle Reighard punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4FUMBLE11 plays · 59 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ryan Watercutter for no gain to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.9%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Cobbs, Simmie (HOPKINS, S.), PENALTY CSU offside (RUFF, B.) 5 yards to the IND40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
96.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 39Similar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
96.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 13 yds to the ChaSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
96.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 6 yds to the ChaSo 22Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+16
96.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 16 yds Simmie Cobbs Jr. fumbled, forced by Shadarius Hopkins, recovered by ChaSo Sekwan Jenkins , return for 1 yd to the ChaSo 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 5PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
IUDrive 6TD5 plays · 32 yds · 1:2395% → 96%
CHSODrive 7DOWNS10 plays · 44 yds · 3:265% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q2 14:17
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ty Fryfogle, broken up by Jonathan SlatonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 9PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 1:446% → 6%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
94.4%
INDIANA Penalty, offside defense (Ja'merez Bowen) to the ChaSo 46Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
94.2%
Shane Bucenell pass incomplete to Geoffrey Wall, broken up by Chase DutraSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
94.5%
Kyle Reighard punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD11 plays · 90 yds · 2:5194% → 96%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
94.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 8 yds to the Ind 18Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+11
94.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Taysir Mack for 11 yds to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 4 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
94.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 5 yds to the ChaSo 48Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+27
94.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Devonte Williams for 27 yds to the ChaSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
94.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Taysir Mack for 15 yds to the ChaSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 11PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 8:00
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+11
96.2%
Kyle Reighard punt for 57 yds , Luke Timian returns for 11 yds to the Ind 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 6:28
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+12
96.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Luke Timian for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
50
+7
96.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 7 yds to the ChaSo 43Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+12
96.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 12 yds to the ChaSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
96.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Mike Majette for 1 yd to the ChaSo 33Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
96.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ryan Watercutter, broken up by Demetri RoyerSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 12
OPP 38
+33
96.5%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Taz Lindsey at the ChaSo 10 CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, Offensive holding (5 Yards) to the ChaSo 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 13PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 3:47
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
96.0%
Kyle Reighard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14TD7 plays · 57 yds · 1:0797% → 99%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
96.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ryan Watercutter for 5 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
96.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ryan Watercutter for 7 yds to the ChaSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-15
96.8%
Ramsey, Peyton pass complete to Mack, Taysir for 16 yards to the CSU29 (STANLEY, J.;ROWLAND, B.), PENALTY IND pass interference (Mack, Taysir) 15 yards to the IND40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 25
OWN 40
+7
96.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ricky Brookins for 7 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+8
96.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ricky Brookins for 8 yds to the ChaSo 45Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+45
98.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Taysir Mack for 45 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16INT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
CHSODrive 17PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 1:013% → 2%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-6
97.1%
Shane Bucenell sacked by Jacob Robinson and Greg Gooch for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 33Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 21
OPP 38
0
98.1%
Shane Bucenell pass incomplete to Kameron Brown, broken up by Chris CovingtonSimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 21
OPP 38
0
98.1%
Kyle Reighard punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18FG18 plays · 90 yds · 4:5898% → 100%
Q3 12:02
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+7
98.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Taysir Mack for 7 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
98.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Taysir Mack for 8 yds to the ChaSo 46Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+15
98.5%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Mack, Taysir, PENALTY CSU offside declined, PENALTY CSU pass interference (SLATON, J.) 15 yards to the CSU31, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
98.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 4 yds to the ChaSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 19PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:04
4TH & 7
OWN 10
+9
99.8%
Kyle Reighard punt for 46 yds , Luke Timian returns for 9 yds to the ChaSo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20FUMBLE1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
99.8%
Cole Gest run for 9 yds to the ChaSo 38 Cole Gest fumbled, forced by Brandon Rowland, recovered by ChaSo Anthony EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 21PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
IUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:58
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Taz Lindsey at the ChaSo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 23PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:150% → 0%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-15
99.9%
WILSON, T. rush for loss of 4 yards to the CSU40 (Bowen, Ja'merez;McGinnis, M.), PENALTY CSU illegal block 15 yards to the CSU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 29
-1
99.9%
Shane Bucenell sacked by Allen Stallings IV for a loss of 1 yard to the ChaSo 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Kyle Reighard punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Luke Timian at the Ind 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24PUNT12 plays · 38 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 6 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for no gain to the ChaSo 48Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+14
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Simmie Cobbs Jr. for 14 yds to the ChaSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-10
99.9%
Ramsey, Peyton pass complete to Fryfogle, Ty for 15 yards to the CSU17 (JENKINS, S.;HOPKINS, S.), PENALTY IND holding (Watercutter, R.) 10 yards to the CSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Taz Lindsey at the ChaSo 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 25PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:46
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
HARRIS, R. rush for 2 yards to the CSU18 (Willis, Dameon;Walker, Zeke), PENALTY IND offside defense 5 yards to the CSU21, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
CHSODrive 27PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28END OF GAME1 play · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:34
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Taysir Mack for 45 yds for a TD, (Griffin Oakes KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 8:00
Peyton Ramsey 0 Yd Fumble Return (Griffin Oakes Kick)
+1.5
FG · Q3 7:04
Griffin Oakes 21 yd FG GOOD
+1.2