2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:36 · Travis Homer run for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:28: TaQuon Marshall pass complete to J.J. Green for 3 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis KICK) — GT win probability +5.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:12: Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 17 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +14.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:53: Michael Badgley kickoff for 7 yds , Lamont Simmons return for 42 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis KICK) — GT win probability +12.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:36: Travis Homer run for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MIA win probability +24.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:04: Michael Badgley 24 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +54.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 12:49MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snapGo for it67.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.7%average punt
- Q1 10:51GT 4th & 15 at GT 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snapGo for it32.1%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.3%average punt
- Q1 8:10MIA 4th & 6 at GT 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snapGo for it67.3%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call67.4%81% to makePunt66.5%−0.9average punt
- Q1 3:09MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 24, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snapGo for it63.4%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.1%average punt
- Q2 10:11MIA 4th & 5 at GT 15, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snapGo for it53.3%−0.239% to convertField goalTheir call53.5%83% to makePunt48.9%−4.6average punt
- Q2 7:51GT 4th & 1 at GT 34, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt47.6%−0.9average punt
- Q2 5:29GT 4th & 4 at GT 42, up 8Close callPunted · 50.5% before the snapGo for it50.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 4:08MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 18, down 8Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snapGo for it47.4%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:59GT 4th & 6 at MIA 27, up 8Close callWent for it · 54.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.3%−0.239% to convertField goal54.5%62% to makePunt50.6%−3.9average punt
- Q3 12:26MIA 4th & 20 at midfield, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it40.6%−2.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.4%average punt
- Q3 5:52GT 4th & 14 at MIA 14, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snapGo for it60.0%−3.116% to convertField goalTheir call63.0%84% to makePunt53.3%−9.7average punt
- Q3 3:33MIA 4th & 4 at GT 4, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snapGo for it30.4%40% to convertField goalTheir call29.6%−0.893% to makePunt20.7%−9.7average punt
- Q3 0:33GT 4th & 6 at GT 35, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snapGo for it70.1%−1.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%average punt
- Q4 11:33GT 4th & 4 at GT 46, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it56.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.0%−1.7average punt
- Q4 9:28MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 33, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snapGo for it45.7%−2.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.9%average punt
- Q4 8:06GT 4th & 18 at GT 19, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snapGo for it42.3%−9.712% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.0%average punt
- Q4 5:44MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 32, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snapGo for it40.1%−3.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.2%average punt
- Q4 2:30GT 4th & 8 at MIA 41, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 72.7% before the snapGo for it71.2%34% to convertField goal68.1%−3.132% to makePuntTheir call67.7%−3.5average punt
- Q4 0:42MIA 4th & 10 at GT 43, down 2Numbers favored field goal by 6.5 ptsWent for it · 35.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.3%−6.530% to convertField goal28.8%28% to makePunt15.4%−13.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 4:27GT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.2%97% to makeGo for two35.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:28GT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.2%97% to makeGo for two43.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:12MIA Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.6%97% to makeGo for two59.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 14:53GT Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.5%97% to makeGo for two53.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:36MIA Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick50.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call50.4%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIADrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3670% → 69%
GTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:4831% → 31%
MIADrive 3FG8 plays · 29 yds · 2:3770% → 70%
GTDrive 4TD8 plays · 76 yds · 3:2730% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0766% → 65%
Q1 3:09
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+4
65.0%
Zach Feagles punt for 50 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 4 yds to the GTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:3434% → 42%
Q2 14:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.8%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to J.J. Green for 3 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FG12 plays · 72 yds · 4:0358% → 58%
GTDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 17 yds · 4:2644% → 48%
Q2 5:29
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
51.7%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1352% → 50%
GTDrive 10DOWNS7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0151% → 54%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
48.9%
Marshall, TaQuon pass incomplete to Stewart, Brad, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Knowles, Robert) 15 yards to the MIAMI44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+4
46.5%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 4 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD12 plays · 77 yds · 1:4049% → 66%
Q2 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
48.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
49.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 5 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+10
50.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dionte Mullins for 10 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+32
47.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 32 yds to the GTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
52.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 5 yds to the GTech 17Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+17
65.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 17 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 2:1149% → 43%
Q3 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+11
48.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 11 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-13
48.1%
Malik Rosier sacked by Antonio Simmons for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 20
50
0
43.0%
Zach Feagles punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15FG13 plays · 68 yds · 6:2057% → 68%
MIADrive 16FG7 plays · 71 yds · 2:0433% → 36%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+70
32.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 70 yds to the GTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
33.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Tyler Gauthier for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:4668% → 70%
Q3 0:33
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+2
30.5%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 42 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 2 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5131% → 61%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
30.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 13 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
32.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dionte Mullins for 7 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
34.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 16 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+27
60.6%
Travis Homer run for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3557% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5851% → 48%
Q4 9:28
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
47.8%
Zach Feagles punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1256% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 2:1651% → 45%
Q4 6:12
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-2
48.0%
Malik Rosier sacked by Antonio Simmons and Anree Saint-Amour for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 3:0366% → 72%
MIADrive 24FUMBLE18 plays · 85 yds · 2:2041% → 95%
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+14
40.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 14 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
41.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 9 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
42.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+7
44.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 7 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
45.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 13 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
45.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 9 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-10
46.1%
Rosier, Malik pass complete to Berrios, Braxton for 6 yards to the GATECH28, PENALTY MIAMI illegal block 10 yards to the GATECH44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+28
32.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Darrell Langham for 28 yds to the GTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:04
Michael Badgley 24 yd FG GOOD
+54
TD · Q4 13:36
Travis Homer run for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+24.5
TD · Q2 0:12
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 17 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+14.4