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MIA

Miami 24 at Florida State 20

FSU
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:11 · Zach Feagles punt for 40 yds, downed at the FlaSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense+1.2Pregame prior−2.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:57: Braxton Berrios 21 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +22.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:17: Ryan Izzo 15 Yd pass from James Blackman (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +27.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:09: Braxton Berrios 6 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +35.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:24: Auden Tate 20 Yd pass from James Blackman (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +55.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:06: Darrell Langham 23 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +71.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:49FSU 4th & 12 at MIA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:37MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:33FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:36MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:20FSU 4th & 6 at MIA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:58MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:24FSU 4th & 6 at MIA 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−0.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:11MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:14FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:25MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:13FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:54MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:03MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−3.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:08MIA 4th & 8 at FSU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−9.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:02FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:32FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−4.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:47MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:17MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−2.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:55FSU 4th & 5 at MIA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−19.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 6:57MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:17FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:09MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:24FSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−1.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:06MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:4146% → 47%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+34
46.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 34 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
46.6%
Nyqwan Murray run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
46.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
46.8%
James Blackman run for no gain to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-5
46.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
46.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 38 yds, downed at the MiaFl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0153% → 53%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
46.8%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 3
OWN 11
0
46.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 3
OWN 11
-4
47.0%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
47.3%
Zach Feagles punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4947% → 47%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
47.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
50
-1
47.7%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-6
47.8%
James Blackman sacked by Kendrick Norton for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
47.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3953% → 52%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
47.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
47.1%
Malik Rosier run for no gain to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
47.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
47.9%
Zach Feagles punt for 52 yds, downed at the FlaSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:0548% → 51%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
48.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 6 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+30
48.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 30 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
49.0%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 15
50
0
48.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 15
50
+15
48.4%
Blackman, James pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMI roughing passer (Jackson, Michael) 15 yards to the MIAMI35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
49.7%
James Blackman run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
49.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
50.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
50.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+2
50.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
50.7%
Ricky Aguayo 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:5349% → 47%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for no gain to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
50.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.2%
Rosier, Malik pass complete to Berrios, Braxton for 6 yards to the MIAMI31, PENALTY FLORIDAST offside (Kaindoh, Joshua) 5 yards to the MIAMI30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
51.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
52.8%
Zach Feagles punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tarvarus McFadden at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:1952% → 52%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
51.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 16 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
52.0%
Cam Akers run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
52.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
52.4%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
52.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
51.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5748% → 46%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
52.4%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
52.3%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
53.2%
Malik Rosier run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
52.6%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+14
53.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 14 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
51.9%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
52.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
52.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
53.9%
Zach Feagles punt for 40 yds, downed at the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3653% → 52%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
52.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 5 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 17
-1
52.7%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-10
52.4%
James Blackman sacked by Demetrius Jackson for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 16
OWN 6
-6
51.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 52 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 36, MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Braxton Berrios) to the MiaFl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:2545% → 44%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
54.7%
Malik Rosier run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
54.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
55.7%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
56.4%
Zach Feagles punt for 47 yds, downed at the FlaSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4754% → 55%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
53.9%
James Blackman sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+6
53.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 6 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+1
54.8%
James Blackman run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
54.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 37 yds, downed at the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0944% → 42%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
55.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 11 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-7
55.0%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 38 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (Ahmmon Richards) to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+7
56.6%
Malik Rosier run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
57.3%
Malik Rosier run for no gain to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
58.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tarvarus McFadden at the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13INT
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:3956% → 57%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
56.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+4
56.7%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
56.8%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
57.8%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+13
56.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 13 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
59.3%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+7
59.9%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
60.1%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
58.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for no gain to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 14
OPP 42
0
57.3%
James Blackman pass intercepted Michael Jackson return for no gain to the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:5542% → 39%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
57.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
58.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
59.3%
Rosier, Malik pass incomplete to Richards, Ahmmon, PENALTY FLORIDAST roughing passer (Burns, Brian) 15 yards to the MIAMI47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
55.8%
Malik Rosier sacked by Josh Sweat and Derrick Nnadi for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+2
59.2%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
59.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
61.0%
Zach Feagles punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tarvarus McFadden at the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
56.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 3:4544% → 51%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.0%
Rosier, Malik pass incomplete to Richards, Ahmmon, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (McFadden, Tarvarus) 15 yards to the MIAMI40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
54.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
54.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 7 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 14:22
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
53.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 6 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
53.0%
Malik Rosier run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
52.7%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-15
53.3%
Rosier, Malik pass complete to Berrios, Braxton for 29 yards to the FLORIDAST13, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Berrios, Braxton) 15 yards to the MIAMI43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+32
56.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 32 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
51.6%
Malik Rosier run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+2
51.7%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
51.7%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
51.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
53.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
48.8%
Michael Badgley 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.9%
James Blackman pass intercepted Dee Delaney return for 4 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:0754% → 55%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
46.2%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-4
46.1%
Malik Rosier sacked by Dontavious Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+15
48.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 15 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
45.2%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
45.2%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted, touchback. Stanford Samuels III return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2354% → 51%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
53.5%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-10
53.3%
Akers, Cam rush for 3 yards to the FLORIDAST25, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Eberle, Alec) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+12
53.2%
Cam Akers run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
52.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jacques PatrickSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+44
51.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 41 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 44 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
28.8%
Braxton Berrios 21 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:5334% → 31%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
34.4%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+9
34.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 9 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+3
33.6%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
33.7%
Cam Akers run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
34.7%
Akers, Cam rush for 4 yards to the FLORIDAST41, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Izzo, Ryan) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
33.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jacques PatrickSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+4
33.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 16
OWN 31
0
31.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to George CampbellSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
30.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:3970% → 72%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
30.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
30.5%
Malik Rosier run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
29.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 7 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-2
28.0%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+7
28.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 7 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
26.4%
Malik Rosier sacked by TEAM for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+7
28.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 7 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
26.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Dionte MullinsSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
27.8%
Zach Feagles punt for 33 yds, downed at the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:1030% → 59%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+46
29.9%
Cam Akers run for 46 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
35.9%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+15
35.7%
James Blackman pass complete to George Campbell for 15 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
35.6%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
35.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
59.4%
Ryan Izzo 15 Yd pass from James Blackman (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4349% → 46%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
50.7%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
50.3%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
52.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 5
OWN 14
-4
53.8%
Zach Feagles punt for 47 yds , Tarvarus McFadden returns for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 4:0655% → 71%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
55.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 18 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
60.6%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
60.6%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-5
59.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Minshew) to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+21
57.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 21 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
62.4%
Levonta Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 30 Levonta Taylor fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+5
59.5%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+4
60.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
70.5%
Ricky Aguayo 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3535% → 80%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
64.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 15 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
61.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 37 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
55.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 9 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+7
55.1%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
55.2%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.8%
Braxton Berrios 6 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4031% → 90%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
31.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 14 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
33.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 9 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+4
36.4%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
37.3%
James Blackman run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+15
35.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 15 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
39.6%
James Blackman sacked by Trent Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+15
30.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 15 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
34.5%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
90.1%
Auden Tate 20 Yd pass from James Blackman (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:1324% → 94%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Travis HomerSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
78.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 17 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
73.9%
Travis Homer run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
71.2%
Travis Homer run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
67.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
68.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
75.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 11 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
4.7%
Darrell Langham 23 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
6.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:06
Darrell Langham 23 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)
-71.2
TD · Q4 1:24
Auden Tate 20 Yd pass from James Blackman (Ricky Aguayo Kick)
+55.6
TD · Q4 5:09
Braxton Berrios 6 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)
-35.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com