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NMSU

New Mexico State 26 at Utah State 20

USU
2017 · Postseason · Dec 29, 2017 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:40 · Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 94Pregame prior−5.8Home team on offense−3.6Score differential−2.2Time remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:55: Dominik Eberle 35 Yd Field Goal — USU win probability +2.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Dominik Eberle 30 Yd Field Goal — USU win probability +7.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:28: LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +23.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:31: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +43.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Larry Rose III run for 21 yds for a TD — NMSU win probability +30.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 9 of 15NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 16
  1. Q1 11:15NMSU 4th & 5 at USU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59USU 4th & 6 at USU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:48USU 4th & 2 at USU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55USU 4th & 4 at NMSU 18, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:45NMSU 4th & 5 at USU 27, tied
    Close callWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    55.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:35NMSU 4th & 6 at USU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    51.4%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:31USU 4th & 6 at USU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:38NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:39USU 4th & 18 at USU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−2.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:48NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:28USU 4th & 2 at NMSU 27, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%−1.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−6.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:40NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:15USU 4th & 8 at USU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:00USU 4th & 5 at NMSU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−8.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 13:47USU 4th & 9 at NMSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 12:24NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 13, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%−2.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 10:41USU 4th & 1 at NMSU 31, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%−3.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−5.2
    average punt
  19. Q3 9:55NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.3%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q3 7:08NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  21. Q3 5:13USU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%−3.9
    average punt
  22. Q3 3:56NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  23. Q3 0:22USU 4th & 6 at NMSU 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−2.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%−1.5
    average punt
  24. Q4 14:16NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  25. Q4 12:19NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%−0.9
    average punt
  26. Q4 10:18USU 4th & 19 at NMSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−4.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−2.1
    average punt
  27. Q4 6:45NMSU 4th & 6 at USU 21, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%−2.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−12.2
    average punt
  28. Q4 5:09USU 4th & 5 at USU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  29. Q4 3:37NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−2.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  30. Q4 1:49USU 4th & 1 at USU 27, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 10.2 ptsPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%−10.2
    average punt
  31. Q4 0:23NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−3.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:01USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:47NMSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:28USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:31NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:2561% → 60%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
39.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for no gain to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+21
39.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 21 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
39.6%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+1
39.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the UthSt 41Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+12
39.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
39.7%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
39.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+14
39.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Personal Foul (10 Yards) to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
40.0%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
40.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Chase NelsonSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+1
40.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 1 yd to the UthSt 6Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
40.2%
Dylan Brown 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:2841% → 41%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
40.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 10 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-13
40.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Sean Taylor) to the UthSt 14Similar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 24
OWN 14
+10
40.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 14
OWN 27
+18
40.6%
Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ron LaForce) to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
41.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 2 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
41.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
41.2%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
40.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:0259% → 59%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
40.9%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
40.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+15
41.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 15 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
40.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
40.8%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+3
40.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
41.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:4941% → 41%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
41.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 17 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
41.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
41.1%
Gerold Bright run for no gain to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+9
40.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 9 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 2
OWN 37
-2
41.1%
Jacoby Wildman run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 35 Jacoby Wildman fumbled, forced by Shane Jackson, recovered by NMxSt Shane JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:4659% → 60%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
40.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
40.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+9
40.8%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+37
40.5%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted David Woodward return for 27 yds to the UthSt 0 UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UthSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:3042% → 45%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
41.5%
Jordan Love run for 5 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
41.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+11
41.5%
Jordan Love run for 11 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
42.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 17 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
43.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 9 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+11
44.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
44.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-6
44.3%
Jordan Love sacked by Dalton Herrington for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+10
41.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 10 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
44.9%
Dominik Eberle 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 2:5257% → 59%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+40
43.0%
Larry Rose III run for 40 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
41.0%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-1
40.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+1
41.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the UthSt 27Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+7
42.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
41.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
41.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Javahn Fergurson, broken up by Justus Te'iSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+4
42.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
41.3%
Dylan Brown 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5842% → 41%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Braelon RobertsSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.7%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
41.4%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Zach Van Leeuwen, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
40.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 37 yds, downed at the NMxSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4959% → 57%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
41.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
41.3%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
41.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+5
42.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 5 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4142% → 39%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
42.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 6 yds Aaren Vaughns fumbled, recovered by UthSt LaJuan HuntSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+6
43.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 6 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
43.9%
Jordan Love sacked by Malik Demby for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 17
OWN 34
0
41.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete, broken up by DeShawnte LloydSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 17
OWN 34
-5
40.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 22
OWN 29
+4
39.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 4 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
39.4%
Aaron Dalton punt for 55 yds, downed at the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4559% → 57%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
41.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose III, broken up by David WoodwardSimilar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
41.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 4 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
42.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose III, broken up by Gaje FergusonSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
42.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:1341% → 43%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
41.3%
Gerold Bright run for 11 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
43.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 12 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
44.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
43.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
45.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Braelon RobertsSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-4
45.0%
Aaren Vaughns run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 29 UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Sean Taylor) to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+9
42.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 9 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+3
44.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
42.7%
Dominik Eberle 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2560% → 59%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
40.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 2 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-2
40.2%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Deante Fortenberry for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+6
41.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaden Wright for 6 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
41.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1041% → 40%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
41.2%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 26Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+12
40.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 12 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
42.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
41.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
41.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax Raymond, broken up by DeShawnte LloydSimilar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
40.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:2460% → 63%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
39.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for 2 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
40.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+10
37.4%
Larry Rose III run for 25 yds to the NMxSt 32 Larry Rose III fumbled, forced by Jontrell Rocquemore, recovered by UthSt Chase Christiansen NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (-15 Yards) to the NMxSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18END OF HALF
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:3046% → 50%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
46.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 14 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
46.2%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
46.1%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-5
44.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+10
42.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
49.8%
Dominik Eberle 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:0150% → 49%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
49.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
50
0
52.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 10
50
+1
52.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
50.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Carson TerrellSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
48.9%
Aaron Dalton punt for 45 yds, downed at the NMxSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1154% → 51%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
46.4%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+2
46.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 2 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+6
48.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 6 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 1
OWN 13
+5
48.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 48 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 5 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4053% → 52%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
52.6%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Dax RaymondSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+16
51.6%
Gerold Bright run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
53.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 4 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+5
53.3%
Jordan Love run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+49
52.0%
Dominik Eberle 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2454% → 56%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
46.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 13
OWN 29
0
47.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+8
48.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+9
48.0%
Izaiah Lottie run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
44.2%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Dallin Leavitt return for 20 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:4355% → 56%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
54.9%
Jordan Love run for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+41
54.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 41 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-11
56.3%
Jordan Love run for a loss of 11 yards to the NMxSt 12 Jordan Love fumbled, forced by Terrill Hanks, recovered by NMxSt Terrill HanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0452% → 49%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
47.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (Isaac McClain) to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+5
48.3%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
48.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
48.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
49.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WrightSimilar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
50.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4754% → 54%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
53.9%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+9
52.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to DJ Nelson for 9 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
54.4%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 1
50
0
53.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0252% → 49%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
48.5%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+3
48.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
49.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Conner Cramer, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 3
OWN 16
-4
51.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 48 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:2353% → 54%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
52.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
54.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 7 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
55.8%
Jordan Love run for 1 yd to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+10
55.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 10 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
57.5%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
57.8%
Tre Miller run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
57.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Carson TerrellSimilar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
54.1%
Aaron Dalton punt for 37 yds, downed at the NMxSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4450% → 47%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
49.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+3
50.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 3 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 3
OWN 11
0
51.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 3
OWN 11
0
53.0%
Peyton Theisler punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:3260% → 84%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
60.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+6
60.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
60.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 12 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.7%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5525% → 23%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
75.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-2
73.4%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
74.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Deante FortenberrySimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+1
77.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 31MISSED FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:3482% → 82%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+58
82.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 58 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Ron'quavion TarverSimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-15
84.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Robert Castaneda) to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 25
OPP 37
+7
83.7%
Gerold Bright run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 18
OPP 30
-1
83.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 19
OPP 31
+48
82.1%
Dominik Eberle 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 32TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 3:3422% → 60%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
77.8%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
77.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Dallin LeavittSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+19
79.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 19 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
74.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 14 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
72.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+5
72.3%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
70.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
74.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for no gain to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+4
79.5%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+10
83.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 10 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
39.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 33PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:1655% → 54%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
55.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 8 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
55.4%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
58.4%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
57.1%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
53.9%
Aaron Dalton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 34PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2352% → 47%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
48.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 11 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
46.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by David WoodwardSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
50.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
50.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Dallin LeavittSimilar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+4
53.5%
Peyton Theisler punt for 49 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 4 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 35PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1159% → 55%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
59.0%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
59.9%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
58.2%
Jordan Love run for 1 yd to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
55.3%
Aaron Dalton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 36PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1949% → 47%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
50.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 9 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+4
46.5%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
48.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
49.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
48.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+5
52.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 47 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 5 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 37END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
58.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 38MISSED FG
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0065% → 57%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
62.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Aaren VaughnsSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
57.4%
Dominik Eberle 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 39TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 10%
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
64.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+12
62.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 12 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.7%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the NMxSt 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
64.7%
Jordan Love sacked by Terrill Hanks for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 11Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
40.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
9.8%
Larry Rose III run for 21 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:31
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-43.5
TD · OT 0:00
Larry Rose III run for 21 yds for a TD
-30.7
TD · Q4 13:28
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
+23.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com