View as
Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreMIA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:39 · Zach Feagles punt for 34 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for no gain to the Clem 37 Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Trent Harris
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:36: Travis Etienne 4 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:02: Kelly Bryant 11 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick) — CLEM win probability +3.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:49: Adam Choice 1 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick) — CLEM win probability +5.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:56: Travis Etienne run for 4 yds to the Clem 5 — CLEM win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:17: Tavien Feaster 11 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 8:39MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.7%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.8%average punt
- Q1 6:09MIA 4th & 13 at CLEM 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.6%−0.220% to convertField goalTheir call19.8%58% to makePunt19.1%−0.7average punt
- Q1 1:35MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it16.7%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.3%average punt
- Q2 10:16MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 36, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it9.0%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q2 5:37CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 49, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snapGo for it92.3%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.6%average punt
- Q2 4:19MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 29, down 21Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.1%−0.8average punt
- Q2 3:35CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 31, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.5%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%average punt
- Q2 1:00MIA 4th & 7 at CLEM 44, down 21Close callPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.5%37% to convertField goal6.2%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call6.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:00CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 3, up 21Numbers favored punt by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 94.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.9%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt92.3%average punt
- Q3 12:50MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q3 10:14CLEM 4th & 9 at MIA 28, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call95.7%60% to makePunt94.4%−1.3average punt
- Q3 7:57CLEM 4th & 7 at MIA 44, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.4%−<0.137% to convertField goal96.0%−0.527% to makePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q4 14:20MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 28, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:42CLEM 4th & 22 at CLEM 26, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 11:36MIA 4th & 10 at CLEM 44, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.1%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:24CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 13, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 8:54MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 49, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:34CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 25, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:29MIA 4th & 1 at CLEM 6, down 38Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%69% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%−<0.191% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:36CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.9%97% to makeGo for two79.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:02CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:49CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:17CLEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:01CLEM Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD11 plays · 68 yds · 4:0978% → 79%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
78.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 4 yds to the Clem 36Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+14
77.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
77.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 7 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
77.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 23 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FUMBLE7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4322% → 22%
Q1 9:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
78.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff Thomas, broken up by K'Von WallaceSimilar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
78.4%
Zach Feagles punt for 34 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for no gain to the Clem 37 Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Trent HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3MISSED FG6 plays · 8 yds · 2:2522% → 22%
CLEMDrive 4TD7 plays · 71 yds · 2:5678% → 83%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
78.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Travis Etienne for 4 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+25
78.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 25 yds Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, forced by Sheldrick Redwine, recovered by Clem Milan Richard for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+12
78.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 12 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2219% → 18%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
81.0%
Malik Rosier sacked by Christian Wilkins and James Skalski for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton Berrios, broken up by Isaiah SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD10 plays · 41 yds · 3:3483% → 89%
MIADrive 7PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:2111% → 10%
CLEMDrive 8PUNT12 plays · 34 yds · 4:3290% → 93%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
90.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 1 yd to the Clem 16Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
91.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to C.J. Fuller for 4 yds to the Clem 20Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+7
91.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 7 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
92.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 3 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+7
91.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 7 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-4
92.4%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Chad Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 31Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+18
92.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 18 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
92.6%
Will Spiers punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:129% → 8%
CLEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3794% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:298% → 7%
Q2 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
92.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Michael Irvin II for 6 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12DOWNS8 plays · 8 yds · 0:5695% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:006% → 6%
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
93.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mike Harley, broken up by Ryan CarterSimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-7
93.8%
Malik Rosier sacked by Dexter Lawrence for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+19
94.4%
Zach Feagles punt for 39 yds for a 1ST down , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 19 yds to the CLEMSON 42 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Chad Thomas) to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14FG7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2996% → 97%
Q3 12:19
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+10
95.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 10 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
95.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 5 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-4
96.0%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Amari Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15FUMBLE2 plays · 20 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
95.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 20 yds Jeff Thomas fumbled, forced by Ryan Carter, recovered by Clem Dorian O'DanielSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4097% → 97%
Q3 9:19
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
97.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Travis Etienne for 4 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-2
97.0%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
96.8%
Will Spiers punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17INT4 plays · 18 yds · 1:204% → 4%
CLEMDrive 18TD7 plays · 43 yds · 3:0798% → 100%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
97.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 3 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+11
97.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Adam Choice for 11 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
97.9%
Choice, Adam rush for 5 yards to the MIAMI24, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Simpson, John) 10 yards to the MIAMI39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+20
98.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 20 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
98.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 8 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19INT6 plays · 26 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q3 1:56
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+37
99.7%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted Kendall Joseph return for 37 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD2 plays · 13 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
MIADrive 21PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.8%
Malik Rosier sacked by Albert Huggins and Justin Foster for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+10
99.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 10 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Navaughn Donaldson) to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
99.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Michael Irvin II for 6 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Zach Feagles punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22PUNT4 plays · -12 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
99.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Amari Rodgers for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 34Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 14
OWN 34
-8
99.8%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Michael Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 26Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 22
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Will Spiers punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Darrell Langham, broken up by A.J. TerrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q4 10:24
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Will Spiers punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the Clem 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:250% → 0%
CLEMDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27FG9 plays · 54 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 6 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
99.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 21 yds to the Clem 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 6 yds to the Clem 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28END OF GAME7 plays · 20 yds · 3:11100% → 100%
Q4 2:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.9%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to T.J. Chase for 6 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:49
Adam Choice 1 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick)
+5.8
TD · Q1 3:02
Kelly Bryant 11 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick)
+3.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:56
Travis Etienne run for 4 yds to the Clem 5
+2.3