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MEM

Memphis 55 at UCF 62

UCF
2017 · Week 14 · Dec 2, 2017 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:34 · Riley Patterson 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 148Pregame prior+3.4Home team on offense+14.3Garbage-time factor+2.8Score differential+5.5Time remaining+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:15: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 34 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +15.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 4:13: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +35.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 15 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +18.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +36.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Otis Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +17.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:20MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56UCF 4th & 4 at MEM 14, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:00MEM 4th & 6 at UCF 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−8.8
    average punt
  4. Q3 10:21MEM 4th & 4 at UCF 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−10.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 4:02MEM 4th & 21 at MEM 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−3.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  6. Q4 13:34MEM 4th & 21 at UCF 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−1.6
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 9:51UCF 4th & 8 at MEM 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:53UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.3%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:51UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:35UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.6 ptsPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:28MEM 4th & 19 at UCF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−11.6
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−13.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:19UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:57MEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:32UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:27MEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:06UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:52MEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:13MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:06UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:15UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:29UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:02MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:13MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:2135% → 35%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
65.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 6 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+20
65.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 20 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
65.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 11 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
65.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-2
64.9%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 45 Darrell Henderson fumbled, recovered by UCF Shaquem GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:4165% → 67%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
65.3%
UCF Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
65.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+12
65.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 12 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+13
65.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 13 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
65.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 11 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
66.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 24 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3034% → 33%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
66.2%
Tony Pollard run for 1 yd to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
66.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+2
66.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 2 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
66.9%
Nick Jacobs punt for 55 yds, downed at the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4FG
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1467% → 68%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
66.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 12 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+62
67.0%
Otis Anderson run for 62 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
67.7%
Otis Anderson run for 8 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
67.8%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Memph 12Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-2
67.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 14Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
67.7%
Matthew Wright 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3833% → 36%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
67.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
68.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
68.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+38
69.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 38 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
68.0%
Riley Ferguson run for 1 yd to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+14
68.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 14 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
68.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (4 Yards) to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:0266% → 71%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
65.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
66.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for no gain to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+20
65.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 20 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
70.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 48 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 1:4830% → 36%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
70.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 4 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-1
70.4%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 14Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+9
71.1%
Riley Ferguson run for 9 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+63
70.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 63 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
68.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
63.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 13 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:1566% → 72%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
65.6%
UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+24
65.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 24 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
66.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+9
66.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 3
50
+50
71.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 50 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 3:1927% → 25%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
72.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+13
72.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
50
+2
71.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-15
71.8%
Ferguson, Riley pass complete to Magnifico, Joey for 22 yards to the UCF26, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference 15 yards to the MEMPHIS37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 23
OWN 37
+4
73.8%
Tony Pollard run for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 19
OWN 41
-13
74.2%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 13 yards to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 32
OWN 28
0
75.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 52 yds, downed at the UCF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
72.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 11 yds Dredrick Snelson fumbled, recovered by MemphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:2428% → 36%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
72.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+6
73.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 6 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+30
64.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 30 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12INT
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2067% → 70%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
66.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+2
68.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+7
67.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+37
68.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 37 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
70.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+9
69.9%
Anderson, Otis pass incomplete, PENALTY MEMPHIS roughing passer (Hart, Tim) 9 yards to the MEMPHIS11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
70.1%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
70.1%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Tito Windham return for 2 yds to the Memph 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
5 plays · 97 yds · 1:3332% → 44%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+14
68.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 14 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
67.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+10
67.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 10 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
67.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+68
56.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 68 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14INT
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:0257% → 62%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+40
57.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 40 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
60.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
60.4%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+23
60.5%
Otis Anderson run for 8 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
61.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
61.9%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
61.9%
Milton, McKenzie pass incomplete to Stewart, Cam, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (Carter, Terrell) 6 yards to the MEMPHIS6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
61.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+25
61.5%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Terrell Carter return for 25 yds to the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15END OF HALF
9 plays · 66 yds · 1:4146% → 58%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+46
53.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 46 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
49.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+13
49.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (13 Yards) to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
49.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
49.2%
Anthony Miller pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+4
49.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
42.3%
Riley Patterson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:3151% → 66%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
50.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 11 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
51.7%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Shareef White for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 36Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+10
49.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 10 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+9
50.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 9 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
51.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 16Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
66.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17FG
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:2942% → 48%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
58.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+52
58.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 52 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
53.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 5 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
53.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+13
54.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 13 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
53.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
53.0%
Anthony Miller pass incomplete to Riley FergusonSimilar
Q3 10:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
54.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
51.9%
Riley Patterson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4554% → 74%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.7%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
54.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
55.4%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
56.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 7 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+12
57.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 12 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
58.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+34
73.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 34 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:4832% → 30%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
67.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 9 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+7
65.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 7 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
65.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 11 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-6
64.5%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Joey Connors for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
67.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 16
OPP 47
-5
69.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 21
OWN 48
0
69.6%
Nick Jacobs punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 1:2671% → 87%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
70.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 23 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
72.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 32 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
75.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
86.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 28 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:2416% → 14%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
84.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
83.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
84.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 6 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
83.3%
Riley Ferguson run for 4 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+18
82.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 18 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
81.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 19 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
79.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
80.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 13
OPP 21
-8
82.6%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 21
OPP 29
+46
86.3%
Riley Patterson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:3487% → 95%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
87.0%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
87.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
87.3%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
88.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 29 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
88.7%
Otis Anderson run for 9 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+6
88.5%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
89.0%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 17Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+3
90.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
91.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
94.8%
Matthew Wright 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:319% → 21%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
91.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 4 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+66
79.1%
Tony Pollard run for 66 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:4485% → 87%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
85.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
85.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
85.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 5 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+3
84.9%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
87.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 5 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
89.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
88.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
87.1%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 25 yds, downed at the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:2417% → 58%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+29
82.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 29 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
79.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
77.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+9
77.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
77.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+2
77.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+10
42.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1057% → 57%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
57.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+1
61.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-1
59.9%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+16
56.5%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 31 yds, downed at the MEMPHIS 28 UCF Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Memph 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27MISSED FG
11 plays · 23 yds · 1:4756% → 51%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
43.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
44.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-5
46.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+36
49.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 36 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
37.2%
Pollard, Tony rush for 3 yards to the UCF22, PENALTY MEMPHIS illegal block 10 yards to the UCF35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
-3
39.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 23
OPP 38
+9
43.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
44.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 14
OPP 29
-5
49.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+51
49.5%
Riley Patterson 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0756% → 56%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
56.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
55.7%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Jonathan Cook return for no gain to the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
43.6%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Titus Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 30TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
40.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 30Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
-10
42.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 40Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+11
44.8%
Ferguson, Riley pass incomplete to Dykes, Sean, PENALTY UCF pass interference 11 yards to the UCF29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
40.5%
Riley Ferguson run for 14 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
22.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 15 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 31TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
28.1%
Otis Anderson run for 9 yds to the Memph 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
28.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
28.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 2Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 32TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
64.7%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 30Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+20
64.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 10 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Roughing Passer (10 Yards) to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
64.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the Memph 1Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.3%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 33Uncategorized
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
80.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 22Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
80.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
86.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+17
91.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 17 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
79.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 9Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
80.4%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Tre Neal return for no gain to the UCF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+36.6
TD · Q4 4:13
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
-35.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com