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AKR

Akron 28 at Toledo 45

TOL
2017 · Week 14 · Dec 2, 2017 · Ford Field
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:45 · Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Pregame prior+8.0Home team on offense+35.9Score differential+27.6Garbage-time factor+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.6Blowout margin+12.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:22: Terry Swanson 2 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +2.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:51: Diontae Johnson 5 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +4.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:08: Jon'Vea Johnson 27 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:38: Austin Wolf 29 Yd pass from Kato Nelson (Nick Gasser Kick) — AKR win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:20: Robbie Kelley pass complete to Kobie Booker for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Gasser KICK) — AKR win probability +1.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 6AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:34AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:42TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:34AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:49AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:54TOL 4th & 7 at AKR 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:34AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:19AKR 4th & 15 at TOL 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:24AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:02TOL 4th & 2 at AKR 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:39AKR 4th & 7 at TOL 47, down 21
    Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:17AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:26TOL 4th & 8 at AKR 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:08AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 49, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:28AKR 4th & 9 at TOL 17, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:45TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 31, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:30AKR 4th & 3 at TOL 48, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:05TOL 4th & 8 at midfield, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AKR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:10TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:22TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:51TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:08TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:25TOL Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:30AKR Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:38AKR Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:35TOL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:09AKR Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:20AKR Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:158% → 9%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.6%
Kato Nelson run for 3 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
91.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Manny Morgan for 11 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
91.4%
Manny Morgan run for 2 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-6
91.1%
Kato Nelson sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 35Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
91.1%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+18
91.1%
Nick Gasser punt for 50 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 18 yds to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2691% → 91%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
91.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 6 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
91.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
90.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
90.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 46 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:039% → 9%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
90.8%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
90.7%
Manny Morgan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 14Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
90.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Tra'Von ChapmanSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+48
90.6%
Nick Gasser punt for 51 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 48 yds to the Akron 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:1991% → 91%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
90.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Akron 27Similar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+27
91.2%
Diontae Johnson 27 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:109% → 10%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.9%
Manny Morgan run for 3 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
90.9%
Manny Morgan run for 1 yd to the Akron 29Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
90.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 7 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
90.6%
Kato Nelson run for 1 yd to the Akron 37Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
90.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Manny Morgan for 6 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
90.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Tra'Von ChapmanSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
90.5%
Nick Gasser punt for 51 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for no gain to the Toled 6 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (3 Yards) to the Toled 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:5591% → 90%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
90.5%
AKRON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
90.5%
Desmond Phillips run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+6
90.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 6 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+18
90.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 18 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
90.4%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+5
90.5%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
90.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 28 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
90.4%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 21Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+5
90.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 5 yds to the Akron 16Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
89.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
89.6%
Jameson Vest 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1211% → 11%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.3%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
89.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 5 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+3
89.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tra'Von Chapman for 3 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
89.3%
Nick Gasser punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:1289% → 89%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
89.2%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
89.0%
Logan Woodside run for 8 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-2
89.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Akron Brian BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:3412% → 11%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
87.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Kevin Gladney for 9 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+8
87.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 8 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
87.3%
AKRON Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 15
OPP 25
-5
87.6%
AKRON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 20
OPP 30
0
87.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 20
OPP 30
+5
87.8%
Thomas Woodson run for 5 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
88.1%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Tra'Von ChapmanSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
89.1%
Nick Gasser 42 yd FG BLOCKED by Nate Childress, recovered by Josh Teachey, returned for 36 yds to the Akron 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:2889% → 92%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+29
89.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 29 yds to the Akron 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
89.4%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Akron 2Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.2%
Terry Swanson 2 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:389% → 8%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.4%
Thomas Woodson run for 1 yd to the Akron 26Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
91.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Brandon JunkSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
91.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
91.6%
Nick Gasser punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:1092% → 96%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
92.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 8 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
92.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+17
91.9%
Art Thompkins run for 17 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
92.2%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+22
91.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 22 yds Diontae Johnson fumbled, recovered by Toledo at the Akron 15Similar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
91.9%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Akron 11Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+6
91.9%
Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the Akron 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.4%
Diontae Johnson 5 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:405% → 5%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
95.3%
Manny Morgan run for 12 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
95.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 12 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
95.1%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
95.2%
Manny Morgan run for 3 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+8
95.3%
Thomas Woodson pass intercepted Trevon Mathis return for 8 yds to the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14INT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:0497% → 97%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
96.8%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+6
96.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 6 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
97.0%
Logan Woodside run for 6 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jordan FisherSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+2
97.0%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+8
97.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 8 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
97.4%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Ulysees Gilbert III return for 25 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:564% → 4%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
50
0
95.8%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
50
+3
95.9%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
95.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to A.J. ConeySimilar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
96.0%
Nick Gasser punt for 44 yds, downed at the Toled 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
10 plays · 97 yds · 1:2497% → 99%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+18
97.4%
Terry Swanson run for 18 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
97.4%
Terry Swanson run for 10 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
97.5%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+18
97.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Drew Rosi for 18 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Terry SwansonSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+16
97.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 16 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.3%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.1%
Jon'Vea Johnson 27 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.2%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 10 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:1499% → 99%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+35
99.2%
Terry Swanson run for 35 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
99.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 9 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
99.2%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
99.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 12 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
99.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the Akron 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
99.4%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 11Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 0
OPP 11
+10
99.3%
Terry Swanson run for 10 yds to the Akron 1, Terry Swanson fumbled, recovered by Akron Kyron Brown in the endzone for a TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.4%
Manny Morgan run for 1 yd to the Akron 21Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
99.4%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
99.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 24 yds, downed at the Akron 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 8 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
99.5%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Akron 37Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
99.5%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.6%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
99.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
99.7%
Jameson Vest 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:070% → 1%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 16 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.6%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
99.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 1
50
-1
99.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 49Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Kobie BookerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 1 yd to the Akron 48Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+17
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Darryl Richards for 17 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 12 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 7 yds to the Akron 12Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Darryl RichardsSimilar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Shakif Seymour 12 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
99.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 59 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
99.8%
Kato Nelson run for 7 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
99.8%
Manny Morgan run for 2 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Manny Morgan 7 Yd Run (Nick Gasser Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:31100% → 100%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.8%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+20
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Jordan George return for 20 yds to the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
98.5%
Austin Wolf 29 Yd pass from Kato Nelson (Nick Gasser Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:3899% → 99%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 17 yds to the Toled 42 Shakif Seymour fumbled, forced by Ibrahima Camara, recovered by Akron Darian DaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
98.9%
Kato Nelson sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 46 Kato Nelson fumbled, recovered by Toled Marquise Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
99.9%
Terry Swanson 54 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 29DOWNS
11 plays · 53 yds · 2:480% → 0%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
99.9%
Kato Nelson run for 6 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Olasunkanmi Adeniyi) to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.9%
Manny Morgan run for 9 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+12
99.9%
Manny Morgan run for 12 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
99.9%
Kato Nelson sacked by Nate Childress for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+4
99.9%
Kato Nelson run for 4 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Tra'Von Chapman pass incomplete to Kato NelsonSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 9
OPP 17
-5
99.9%
Kato Nelson sacked by DeDarallo Blue for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.9%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 31TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:260% → 1%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 8 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
Kato Nelson run for 7 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Brandon JunkSimilar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 4 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 44 yds for a TD, (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
99.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
99.6%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 8
50
0
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Art ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 8
50
0
99.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 35 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 33TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 2:321% → 2%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the Akron 21Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+9
99.5%
Robbie Kelley pass complete to Nate Stewart for 9 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
99.5%
Robbie Kelley pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 11 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.5%
Robbie Kelley pass incomplete to Van Edwards Jr.Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+9
99.5%
Robbie Kelley pass complete to Kobie Booker for 9 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Robbie Kelley pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Robbie Kelley pass incomplete to Kwadarrius SmithSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+37
99.6%
Robbie Kelley pass complete to Andre Williams for 37 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.5%
Robbie Kelley pass incomplete to Kobie BookerSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.9%
Robbie Kelley pass complete to Kobie Booker for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Gasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 34END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:51
Diontae Johnson 5 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)
+4.5
TD · Q2 11:22
Terry Swanson 2 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)
+2.8
TD · Q2 0:08
Jon'Vea Johnson 27 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com