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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreSTAN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:07 · Jake Bailey punt for 35 yds, downed at the USC 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:34: Cameron Scarlett 1 Yd Run (Jet Toner Kick) — STAN win probability +9.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 80%).
- TD · Q3 4:49: Ronald Jones II 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +14.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:31: Kaden Smith 11 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick) — STAN win probability +16.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 4:22: Ronald Jones II 8 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +13.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:09: Kaden Smith 28 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick) — STAN win probability +25.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 10:42USC 4th & 15 at STAN 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snapGo for it60.6%−0.117% to convertField goal60.6%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call60.7%average punt
- Q1 9:12STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it39.0%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.1%average punt
- Q1 6:03USC 4th & 6 at STAN 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.9%40% to convertField goal60.9%−<0.154% to makePunt60.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 9:46USC 4th & 4 at STAN 6, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snapGo for it61.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call61.0%−0.391% to makePunt57.6%−3.7average punt
- Q2 5:46STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it34.9%−2.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.1%average punt
- Q3 13:14STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snapGo for it33.7%−2.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.8%average punt
- Q3 9:12USC 4th & 1 at USC 42, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it66.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.3%−1.9average punt
- Q3 7:07STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 26, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 34.1% before the snapGo for it35.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%−2.4average punt
- Q3 0:42STAN 4th & 23 at STAN 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it28.2%−5.67% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%average punt
- Q4 14:03USC 4th & 18 at USC 3, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snapGo for it59.7%−8.910% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.6%average punt
- Q4 8:00STAN 4th & 1 at USC 1, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.3%59% to convertField goal33.6%−6.794% to makePunt17.4%−22.9average punt
- Q4 0:28USC 4th & 2 at STAN 32, up 3Close callWent for it · 90.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.6%−0.357% to convertField goal89.9%51% to makePunt82.7%−7.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 4:38USC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.7%97% to makeGo for two63.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:55STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.9%97% to makeGo for two38.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:02USC Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.6%97% to makeGo for two73.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.4%97% to makeGo for two36.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:49USC Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.9%97% to makeGo for two82.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 2:31STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.2%97% to makeGo for two32.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:22USC Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:09STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.5 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call13.6%−1.597% to makeGo for two15.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSCDrive 1PUNT12 plays · 32 yds · 4:1363% → 63%
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
63.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
63.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 3 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
62.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Trenton Irwin at the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2337% → 37%
Q1 9:12
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
63.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD10 plays · 70 yds · 4:2663% → 67%
Q1 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+33
63.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 48 yds to the STANFORD 20 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Daniel Imatorbhebhe) to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
63.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 17 yds to the Stanf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-5
64.1%
Jones II, Ronald rush for 1 yard to the STANFORD1, PENALTY USC illegal formation 5 yards to the STANFORD7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
67.1%
Michael Pittman Jr. 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4TD12 plays · 68 yds · 4:3134% → 41%
Q1 3:35
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+8
66.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 8 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
65.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 5 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+13
64.5%
K.J. Costello run for 3 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (Iman Marshall) to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
64.5%
Costello, K.J. pass incomplete to Arcega-Whiteside, JJ, PENALTY USC pass interference (Jones, Jack) 15 yards to the USC7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FG16 plays · 69 yds · 5:0462% → 64%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
62.2%
Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Mitchell Jr., Steven (Murphy, Alameen), PENALTY USC illegal formation 5 yards to the USC20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 5
OWN 20
+15
62.3%
Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Burnett, Deontay, PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Reid, Justin) 15 yards to the USC35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
62.3%
Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Pittman Jr., Michael, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Murphy, Alameen) 10 yards to the USC49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+20
62.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 20 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+14
63.7%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Perez) to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 3:5337% → 35%
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
62.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Bryce Love, broken up by Rasheem GreenSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-4
63.1%
K.J. Costello sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 14
OWN 42
-5
65.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 50 yds , Ajene Harris returns for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD7 plays · 97 yds · 2:3764% → 76%
STANDrive 8TD13 plays · 75 yds · 2:2227% → 39%
Q2 2:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
74.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 8 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
74.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 13 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+42
73.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 42 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3237% → 34%
Q3 14:02
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
61.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-10
61.8%
Costello, K.J. pass complete to Schultz, Dalton for 20 yards to the USC34, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Marx, Daniel) 10 yards to the STANFORD36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
65.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden Smith, broken up by Ajene HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 3:5665% → 66%
STANDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5836% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD6 plays · 61 yds · 2:1067% → 83%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
67.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr., broken up by Quenton MeeksSimilar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
67.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
50
+49
68.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 49 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14TD6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0621% → 40%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
75.3%
K.J. Costello sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 18 K.J. Costello fumbled, forced by Rasheem Green, recovered by Stanf Nate Herbig , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FUMBLE2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
65.5%
Stephen Carr run for 20 yds to the USC 45 Stephen Carr fumbled, forced by Alameen Murphy, recovered by Stanf Justin ReidSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -13 yds · 1:0840% → 33%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-17
59.8%
K.J. Costello run for a loss of 17 yards to the Stanf 38 K.J. Costello fumbled, recovered by Stanf Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 27
OWN 38
+4
65.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 4 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 23
OWN 42
0
65.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden Smith, broken up by Ajene HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 23
OWN 42
+47
67.3%
Jake Bailey punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 21 USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Josh Falo) to the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3265% → 65%
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-8
64.8%
Sam Darnold sacked by Mike Tyler for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18DOWNS12 plays · 32 yds · 5:5541% → 36%
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
60.2%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 11 Bryce Love fumbled, forced by Chris Hawkins, recovered by Stanf Daniel MarxSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 0
OPP 11
+6
59.1%
Costello, K.J. pass incomplete to Smith, Kaden, PENALTY USC personal foul (Houston Jr., John) 6 yards to the USC5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD8 plays · 99 yds · 3:3371% → 94%
Q4 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+54
70.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 54 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
75.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
78.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 9 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20TD11 plays · 90 yds · 1:597% → 32%
Q4 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+28
93.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 28 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
92.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Stanf K.J. CostelloSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+45
95.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 45 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
92.8%
Costello, K.J. pass complete to Parkinson, Colby for 6 yards to the USC12, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Hall, A.T.) 10 yards to the USC28, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21END OF GAME8 plays · 21 yds · 1:5689% → 95%
Q4 0:28
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+15
93.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Josh Falo for 15 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:09
Kaden Smith 28 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick)
-25.1
TD · Q3 2:31
Kaden Smith 11 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick)
-16.6
TD · Q3 4:49
Ronald Jones II 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)
+14.4