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STAN

Stanford 28 at USC 31

USC
2017 · Week 14 · Dec 1, 2017 · Levi's Stadium
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—USC 64.0%Chase McGrath 24 Yd Field GoalAWAY 7 - HOME 10 · Q2 9:46
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:46 · Chase McGrath 24 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+8.5Home team on offense+2.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:34: Cameron Scarlett 1 Yd Run (Jet Toner Kick) — STAN win probability +9.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 80%).
  2. TD · Q3 4:49: Ronald Jones II 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +14.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:31: Kaden Smith 11 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick) — STAN win probability +16.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:22: Ronald Jones II 8 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick) — USC win probability +13.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:09: Kaden Smith 28 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick) — STAN win probability +25.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:42USC 4th & 15 at STAN 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:12STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:03USC 4th & 6 at STAN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:46USC 4th & 4 at STAN 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:46STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−2.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:14STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:12USC 4th & 1 at USC 42, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:07STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 26, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:42STAN 4th & 23 at STAN 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−5.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:03USC 4th & 18 at USC 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−8.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:00STAN 4th & 1 at USC 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−6.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−22.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:28USC 4th & 2 at STAN 32, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    89.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−7.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 4:38USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:02USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:34STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:49USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:31STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:22USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:09STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.5 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 4:1363% → 63%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
63.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
63.0%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 45Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
63.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
63.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
63.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 3 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+8
63.2%
Stephen Carr run for 8 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
63.3%
Deontay Burnett run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 43Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 15
OPP 43
0
63.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Stephen CarrSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
62.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
62.6%
Reid Budrovich punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Trenton Irwin at the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2337% → 37%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
62.7%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
62.7%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
62.8%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
63.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:2663% → 67%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
62.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+33
63.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 48 yds to the STANFORD 20 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Daniel Imatorbhebhe) to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
63.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+3
63.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
63.3%
Sam Darnold run for no gain to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+7
62.8%
Sam Darnold run for 7 yds to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
63.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 17 yds to the Stanf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
63.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Stanf 2Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-5
64.1%
Jones II, Ronald rush for 1 yard to the STANFORD1, PENALTY USC illegal formation 5 yards to the STANFORD7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
67.1%
Michael Pittman Jr. 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:3134% → 41%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
65.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
65.9%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+8
66.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 8 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
65.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 5 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+1
65.1%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+7
65.3%
K.J. Costello run for 7 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
65.2%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+13
64.5%
K.J. Costello run for 3 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (Iman Marshall) to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
64.5%
Costello, K.J. pass incomplete to Arcega-Whiteside, JJ, PENALTY USC pass interference (Jones, Jack) 15 yards to the USC7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
64.5%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 9Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
59.1%
Bryce Love 9 Yd Run (Jet Toner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:0462% → 64%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
62.2%
Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Mitchell Jr., Steven (Murphy, Alameen), PENALTY USC illegal formation 5 yards to the USC20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 5
OWN 20
+15
62.3%
Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Burnett, Deontay, PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Reid, Justin) 15 yards to the USC35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
62.3%
Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Pittman Jr., Michael, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Murphy, Alameen) 10 yards to the USC49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
63.6%
USC Penalty, False Start (Chuma Edoga) to the USC 44Similar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+2
62.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+20
62.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 20 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
64.3%
Stephen Carr run for 8 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
64.3%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Stanf 26Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+14
63.7%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Perez) to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
64.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Stanf 9Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
64.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
63.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
64.0%
Chase McGrath 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:5337% → 35%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.4%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
63.3%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
62.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
62.0%
Connor Wedington run for 5 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.9%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
62.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Bryce Love, broken up by Rasheem GreenSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-4
63.1%
K.J. Costello sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 14
OWN 42
-5
65.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 50 yds , Ajene Harris returns for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
7 plays · 97 yds · 2:3764% → 76%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
64.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 7
0
63.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+40
62.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 40 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
66.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 4 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+26
66.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 26 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
67.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
75.6%
Tyler Vaughns 19 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:2227% → 39%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.5%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
74.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 8 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
74.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
74.5%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
74.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 13 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
73.3%
Trevor Speights run for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+42
73.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 42 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
71.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.2%
Cameron Scarlett 1 Yd Run (Jet Toner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3237% → 34%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
63.2%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
61.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by Iman MarshallSimilar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-10
61.8%
Costello, K.J. pass complete to Schultz, Dalton for 20 yards to the USC34, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Marx, Daniel) 10 yards to the STANFORD36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
65.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden Smith, broken up by Ajene HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
65.8%
Jake Bailey punt for 60 yds, downed at the USC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:5665% → 66%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
65.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 18 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
65.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
66.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
65.5%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
65.7%
Sam Darnold run for 2 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
65.6%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-5
66.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Jordan Austin) to the USC 33Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+9
63.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 9 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
65.5%
Reid Budrovich punt for 43 yds , Trenton Irwin returns for 2 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5836% → 35%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
63.6%
Bryce Love run for 6 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
62.7%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+2
63.9%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
65.1%
Jake Bailey punt for 35 yds, downed at the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:1067% → 83%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
67.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr., broken up by Quenton MeeksSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
66.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
67.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
50
0
69.3%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
50
+49
68.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 49 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.7%
Ronald Jones II 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0621% → 40%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
79.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by John Houston Jr.Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+52
79.5%
Bryce Love run for 52 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
75.3%
K.J. Costello sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 18 K.J. Costello fumbled, forced by Rasheem Green, recovered by Stanf Nate Herbig , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+7
76.4%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
59.8%
Kaden Smith 11 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
65.5%
Stephen Carr run for 20 yds to the USC 45 Stephen Carr fumbled, forced by Alameen Murphy, recovered by Stanf Justin ReidSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:0840% → 33%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-17
59.8%
K.J. Costello run for a loss of 17 yards to the Stanf 38 K.J. Costello fumbled, recovered by Stanf Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 27
OWN 38
+4
65.1%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 4 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 23
OWN 42
0
65.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden Smith, broken up by Ajene HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 23
OWN 42
+47
67.3%
Jake Bailey punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ajene Harris at the USC 21 USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Josh Falo) to the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3265% → 65%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
65.3%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 11Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-8
64.8%
Sam Darnold sacked by Mike Tyler for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 3Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 18
OWN 3
0
66.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 18
OWN 3
0
65.3%
Reid Budrovich punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 32 yds · 5:5541% → 36%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
59.2%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+7
58.5%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
58.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+14
60.2%
K.J. Costello run for 14 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
58.2%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 8Similar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
60.2%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 11 Bryce Love fumbled, forced by Chris Hawkins, recovered by Stanf Daniel MarxSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 0
OPP 11
+6
59.1%
Costello, K.J. pass incomplete to Smith, Kaden, PENALTY USC personal foul (Houston Jr., John) 6 yards to the USC5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q4 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
59.5%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 6Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
59.3%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
61.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the USC 1Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 3:3371% → 94%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
70.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 2Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+54
70.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 54 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
75.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
78.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 9 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+6
78.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
78.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+3
80.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
93.5%
Ronald Jones II 8 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 1:597% → 32%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
93.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
93.2%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Malik DortonSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+28
93.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Kaden Smith for 28 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
92.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Stanf K.J. CostelloSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
94.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+45
95.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 45 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
92.8%
Costello, K.J. pass complete to Parkinson, Colby for 6 yards to the USC12, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Hall, A.T.) 10 yards to the USC28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
93.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan IosefaSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+28
68.2%
Kaden Smith 28 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21END OF GAME
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:5689% → 95%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
89.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
90.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-1
94.4%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+15
93.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Josh Falo for 15 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:09
Kaden Smith 28 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick)
-25.1
TD · Q3 2:31
Kaden Smith 11 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick)
-16.6
TD · Q3 4:49
Ronald Jones II 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)
+14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com