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ALA

Alabama 26 at Georgia 23

UGA
2017 · CFP National Championship · Jan 8, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-38.1UGA 45.8%Calvin Ridley 7 Yd pass from TuaTagovailoa (Andy Pappanastos Kick)AWAY 20 - HOME 20 · Q4 3:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:49 · Calvin Ridley 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Andy Pappanastos Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 169Home team on offense−5.4Pregame prior−0.6Score differential−4.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Time remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:07: Mecole Hardman 1 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +8.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:52: Henry Ruggs III 6 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Andy Pappanastos Kick) — ALA win probability +18.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:52: Mecole Hardman 80 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +16.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:49: Calvin Ridley 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Andy Pappanastos Kick) — ALA win probability +38.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: DeVonta Smith 41 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa — ALA win probability +59.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 9:58ALA 4th & 8 at UGA 17, tied
    Close callWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54ALA 4th & 13 at UGA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:04UGA 4th & 15 at UGA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:54ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:14UGA 4th & 8 at ALA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:52ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:33UGA 4th & 10 at ALA 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:14ALA 4th & 10 at UGA 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:14UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:19ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:03ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 29, down 13
    Close callPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:51UGA 4th & 17 at UGA 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−3.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:15ALA 4th & 10 at UGA 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−5.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:55UGA 4th & 6 at ALA 39, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−1.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:08ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 44, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:39UGA 4th & 13 at UGA 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:24ALA 4th & 8 at UGA 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−6.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:10UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 23, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:49ALA 4th & 4 at UGA 7, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%−1.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−9.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:55UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%−2.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:00ALA 4th & 7 at UGA 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−17.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−31.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 0:07UGA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:52ALA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:52UGA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:49ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1240% → 41%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
40.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Nick Chubb for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 24Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
40.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 4 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
40.7%
Jake Fromm pass intercepted Tony Brown return for no gain to the Alab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2MISSED FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:3859% → 58%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
40.8%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
40.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for 8 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
40.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 9 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+12
40.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 12 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
40.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
40.9%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+10
41.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds to the Geo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
41.1%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Geo 17Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
41.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 8
OPP 17
0
41.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Irv Smith Jr.) to the Geo 22Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-5
41.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+40
42.1%
Andy Pappanastos 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4442% → 42%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
42.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 14 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
42.3%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Wynn) to the Geo 31Similar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
42.4%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
42.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Sony MichelSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
42.0%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
41.9%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0258% → 57%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
42.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
42.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-1
42.4%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
43.2%
JK Scott punt for 53 yds, downed at the Geo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 7:3443% → 47%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
42.9%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+1
43.1%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 26Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
42.9%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
43.6%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Geo 38Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
44.4%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 40Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
44.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (5 Yards) to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
45.0%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Geo 45Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
45.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 13 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
45.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-10
45.9%
Jake Fromm sacked by Anthony Averett for a loss of 10 yards to the Geo 48Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 20
OWN 48
+26
44.5%
Sony Michel run for 26 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
46.8%
Jake Fromm sacked by Christian Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
47.0%
D'Andre Swift run for no gain to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+3
46.5%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
46.9%
Rodrigo Blankenship 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1653% → 51%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.9%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
47.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
47.7%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+15
48.6%
JK Scott punt for 56 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 15 yds to the Geo 30 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Geo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1247% → 56%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
47.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 15 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
47.5%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 40Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
48.9%
Jake Fromm run for 5 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
49.3%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Christian PayneSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
48.7%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+23
48.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 23 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
50.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for no gain to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
51.1%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+16
50.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 16 yds to the Alab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
51.9%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
53.0%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
52.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Sony MichelSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
55.8%
Rodrigo Blankenship 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:1046% → 45%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
53.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 31 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
51.2%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Geo 43Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-6
51.4%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Davin Bellamy for a loss of 6 yards to the Geo 49Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+5
54.3%
Josh Jacobs run for 5 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
55.3%
JK Scott punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:5657% → 57%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
57.2%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 6Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
57.4%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 8Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+16
57.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 16 yds to the Geo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
58.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Christian PayneSimilar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
58.7%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
58.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole HardmanSimilar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+2
57.0%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 39 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 2 yds to the Alab 35 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derek Kief) to the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5144% → 42%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
56.0%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
56.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
58.1%
JK Scott punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mecole Hardman at the Geo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 1:0560% → 73%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
60.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 10 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
61.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
60.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+14
59.8%
Sony Michel run for 14 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
62.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+7
62.8%
D'Andre Swift run for 7 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
63.3%
Jake Fromm run for 14 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
63.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 16 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.2%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Alab 2Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 0
OPP 2
+1
64.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Deionte Thompson) to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.5%
Mecole Hardman 1 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4729% → 27%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
71.3%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
71.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Hale Hentges for 2 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-4
72.1%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Roquan Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+5
73.6%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+19
73.4%
JK Scott punt for 54 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 19 yds to the Geo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 2:0477% → 75%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
76.6%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 33Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-8
76.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for a loss of 8 yards to the Geo 25Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+4
76.3%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+14
75.0%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 41 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 14 yds to the Alab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:5225% → 45%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
75.5%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+9
76.1%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 9 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
75.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Robert Foster for 15 yds to the Geo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
73.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 9 yds to the Geo 20Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+14
74.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 14 yds to the Geo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.4%
Henry Ruggs III 6 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Andy Pappanastos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 1:4964% → 81%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
63.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 14 yds to the Geo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-8
64.6%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 8 yards to the Geo 13Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 18
OWN 13
+7
64.5%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the Geo 20Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+80
80.5%
Mecole Hardman 80 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-15
81.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Sideline Interference (-15 Yards) to the Geo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0720% → 20%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
80.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
80.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass intercepted Deandre Baker return for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
83.5%
Jake Fromm pass intercepted Raekwon Davis return for 19 yds to the Geo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:5522% → 26%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
77.9%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 9 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+6
76.6%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the Geo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
76.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
77.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
78.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
74.4%
Andy Pappanastos 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:1577% → 79%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
77.4%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-1
78.5%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 44Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+13
77.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 13 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
79.5%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-1
79.9%
Jake Fromm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
79.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
78.5%
Brice Ramsey punt for 19 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3922% → 20%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
77.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for 16 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
77.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
76.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for no gain to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+1
78.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 1 yd to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
80.3%
JK Scott punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2381% → 82%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
81.0%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Geo 13Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+10
80.9%
Sony Michel run for 10 yds to the Geo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
80.9%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+13
82.0%
Sony Michel run for 13 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
83.5%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-1
84.5%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 47Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-9
83.7%
Jake Fromm sacked by Raekwon Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the Geo 38Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
82.2%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 45 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for no gain to the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:0817% → 24%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
83.2%
Najee Harris run for 16 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
82.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Cam Sims for 13 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
80.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Robert Foster for 5 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+35
82.5%
Najee Harris run for 35 yds to the Geo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
81.2%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Geo 12Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
82.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
82.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
75.8%
Andy Pappanastos 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0582% → 84%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
82.2%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 13Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+9
82.3%
Mecole Hardman run for 9 yds to the Geo 22Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+1
83.2%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 23Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+8
84.1%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 51 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 8 yds to the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:1019% → 54%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
80.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Damien Harris for 17 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
77.4%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the Geo 48Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
78.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+15
79.8%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Malkom Parrish) to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
75.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 20 yds to the Geo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
75.5%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
75.5%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 7 yds to the Geo 6Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 3
OPP 6
-1
78.2%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 7Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+7
45.8%
Calvin Ridley 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Andy Pappanastos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4455% → 52%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
55.3%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
54.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 7 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
54.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to D'Andre SwiftSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+14
52.0%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 51 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 14 yds to the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27DOWNS
14 plays · 48 yds · 2:5053% → 55%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
47.0%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+11
48.5%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
40.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 9 yds to the GEORGIA 46 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Malkom Parrish) to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
38.3%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
37.6%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Geo 24Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+4
40.0%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
36.4%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the Geo 19Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+3
36.4%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the Geo 16Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-1
38.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 17Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+36
44.8%
Andy Pappanastos 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 28FG
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
64.7%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Alab 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+1
64.7%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Alab 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-13
62.4%
Jake Fromm sacked by Terrell Lewis for a loss of 13 yards to the Alab 34Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+51
65.1%
Rodrigo Blankenship 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 29TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 89%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-16
70.9%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Jonathan Ledbetter and Davin Bellamy for a loss of 16 yards to the Geo 41Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 26
OPP 41
+41
11.2%
DeVonta Smith 41 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
DeVonta Smith 41 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa
-59.7
TD · Q4 3:49
Calvin Ridley 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Andy Pappanastos Kick)
-38.1
TD · Q3 8:52
Henry Ruggs III 6 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Andy Pappanastos Kick)
-18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com