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ND

Notre Dame 21 at LSU 17

LSU
2017 · Citrus Bowl · Jan 1, 2018 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:43 · Tyler Newsome punt for 46 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 1 yd to the LSU 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+5.8Home team on offense−1.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 11:13: Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK) — LSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:49: Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 6 yds for a TD, (Ian Book pass to Josh Adams for Two-Point Conversion) — ND win probability +33.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 2:03: Jack Gonsoulin 17 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +23.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:28: Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 55 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +70.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:16: Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen Sullivan — LSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:43ND 4th & 1 at LSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:13LSU 4th & 9 at ND 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:31ND 4th & 10 at LSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:27LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:28ND 4th & 13 at ND 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:54LSU 4th & 2 at ND 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:51ND 4th & 3 at ND 17, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:45LSU 4th & 6 at ND 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:43ND 4th & 9 at ND 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:00LSU 4th & 11 at ND 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:04ND 4th & 10 at LSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−6.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:53LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:07LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−2.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:47ND 4th & 7 at LSU 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:03LSU 4th & 1 at ND 1, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 14.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%−14.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−46.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:32LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 11:37LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:13LSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:49ND Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    37.0%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.6%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:28ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:1041% → 41%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
59.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 35 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
59.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
59.5%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+5
59.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Durham Smythe for 5 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 1
OPP 31
-3
59.5%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:2360% → 60%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
59.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
59.6%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+15
59.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 15 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
59.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 11 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
60.1%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
60.2%
Danny Etling run for 3 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-5
60.1%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Saahdiq Charles) to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
60.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
59.6%
Josh Growden punt for 32 yds, downed at the NDame 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:3641% → 41%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
59.5%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 4Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+6
59.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 6 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+2
59.7%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
59.4%
Josh Adams run for 11 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
59.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+31
59.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 31 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
58.3%
Cole Kmet pass incomplete to Tony Jones Jr.Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
58.3%
Brandon Wimbush run for no gain to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
58.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 10
OPP 46
+2
59.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 45 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 2 yds to the LSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:5359% → 59%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+31
59.0%
Derrius Guice run for 31 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
59.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
59.3%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+5
58.9%
Etling, Danny rush for 3 yards to the LSU38, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Okwara, Julian) 5 yards to the LSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
59.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Darrel WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
58.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 47 yds, downed at the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5241% → 40%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
59.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Josh AdamsSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-5
59.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Robert Hainsey) to the NDame 8Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+2
59.4%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 13
OWN 10
0
59.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 13
OWN 10
+1
60.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 45 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 1 yd to the LSU 46 D.J. Chark fumbled, recovered by LSU Tory CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2660% → 60%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
60.4%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
60.7%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
60.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Tory CarterSimilar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
59.8%
Josh Growden punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5441% → 41%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
58.6%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-6
58.6%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 5Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 5
+12
59.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 12 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
59.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 6:5860% → 60%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
59.6%
Russell Gage run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
50
+14
61.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 14 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
61.2%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
61.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 4 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
61.0%
Danny Etling run for 4 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
61.8%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
61.8%
Danny Etling run for 3 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+7
61.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 7 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
62.0%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.2%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.5%
Danny Etling run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
60.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Tory Carter) to the NDame 6Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+22
60.1%
Connor Culp 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5444% → 42%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
56.5%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+1
57.4%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+1
58.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 46 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:1160% → 59%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
59.5%
Danny Etling sacked by Jerry Tillery and Nyles Morgan for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 16
OWN 28
0
58.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for no gain to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 16
OWN 28
+30
57.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Dee Anderson for 30 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
62.0%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
61.9%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+23
60.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 23 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
62.7%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the NDame 19Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-8
62.8%
Derrick Dillon run for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 18
OPP 27
+7
59.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 7 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+37
59.0%
Jack Gonsoulin 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 1:4645% → 49%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
55.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Josh Adams for 9 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
53.4%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
54.2%
Ian Book sacked by Michael Divinity Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-8
55.1%
Ian Book sacked by Ed Alexander for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+21
56.6%
Ian Book run for 21 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
52.5%
Ian Book run for 6 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+18
51.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 18 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
49.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Josh Adams for 6 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
49.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-6
51.0%
Ian Book sacked by Greg Gilmore for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
50.6%
Justin Yoon 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0053% → 50%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.6%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
50.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrius GuiceSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
49.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 30 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the NDame 43 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LSU Blake FergusonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:0356% → 67%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
55.9%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+13
55.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 13 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
56.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Dee Anderson for 5 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+1
56.5%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
67.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15INT
13 plays · 45 yds · 4:1036% → 39%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Nic Weishar for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
63.3%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
63.0%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
63.9%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
63.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Durham Smythe for 5 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
62.9%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
62.3%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+9
62.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Nic Weishar for 9 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
62.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 2 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+9
61.0%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
60.7%
Jones Jr., Tony rush for 9 yards to the LSU16, PENALTY NOTREDAME illegal shift 5 yards to the LSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+11
61.1%
Ian Book pass intercepted Andraez Williams return for 4 yds to the LSU 26 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (7 Yards) to the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5368% → 66%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
67.9%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+6
67.7%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 4
OWN 14
-6
67.0%
Danny Etling sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
66.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the LSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:1338% → 40%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
62.1%
Ian Book run for 15 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
60.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Josh Adams for 4 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-2
60.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+1
62.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 1 yd to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
60.5%
Justin Yoon 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2463% → 87%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.0%
Danny Etling run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
63.1%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+26
62.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 26 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
67.6%
Darrel Williams run for 12 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
68.8%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
68.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Saahdiq Charles) to the NDame 36Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+12
65.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 12 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+3
67.4%
Danny Etling run for 3 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
69.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 8 yds to the NDame 13Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+10
69.2%
Derrius Guice run for 10 yds to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
69.3%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
69.4%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 2Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1416% → 53%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.8%
Dexter Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+31
83.1%
Dexter Williams run for 31 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-13
81.9%
Ian Book sacked by Devin White for a loss of 13 yards to the LSU 48 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ian Book) to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 23
OWN 48
+4
85.6%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 19
OPP 48
+29
85.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 29 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
80.6%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+3
80.7%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
80.6%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the LSU 6Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
47.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 6 yds for a TD, (Ian Book pass to Josh Adams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20FG
16 plays · 76 yds · 5:3258% → 88%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
57.5%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
59.6%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
57.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 13 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
62.2%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
63.3%
Danny Etling run for 7 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
62.8%
Darrel Williams run for 10 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
64.3%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+17
64.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 17 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
64.4%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the NDame 9Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
64.4%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
62.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 2 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+17
88.1%
Jack Gonsoulin 17 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:3222% → 91%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
78.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael YoungSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+18
79.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 18 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
9.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 55 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:4424% → 17%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
23.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
21.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+11
21.0%
Danny Etling run for 11 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
21.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
21.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
18.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 10
OWN 34
-5
17.9%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Saahdiq Charles) to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
16.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Ian Book pass complete to Miles Boykin for 55 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-70.3
TD · Q4 7:49
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Young for 6 yds for a TD, (Ian Book pass to Josh Adams for Two-Point Conversion)
-33.6
FG · Q4 2:03
Jack Gonsoulin 17 yd FG GOOD
+23.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com