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UCF

UCF 34 at Auburn 27

AUB
2017 · Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl · Jan 1, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:18 · Matthew Wright 38 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 193Pregame prior+1.0Home team on offense−31.0Garbage-time factor−13.0Score differential−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:05: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 26 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +13.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:30: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +21.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:36: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +25.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:56: Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted for a TD Chequan Burkett return for 45 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +18.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:12: Eli Stove run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +22.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:19UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:54AUB 4th & 16 at AUB 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01AUB 4th & 4 at UCF 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:04UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15AUB 4th & 20 at UCF 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:11UCF 4th & 12 at AUB 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:44AUB 4th & 28 at AUB 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−3.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:01UCF 4th & 8 at AUB 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:45AUB 4th & 18 at UCF 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−5.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:32UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:44UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:14AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:53AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−6.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:41AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:58UCF 4th & 3 at AUB 8, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%−1.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−11.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:18UCF 4th & 7 at AUB 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−5.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:24AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 8:51UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:05AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:55AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:30UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:36UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:56UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.9
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:12AUB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:3824% → 24%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q1 14:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q1 14:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Tre Neal) to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 14:29
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+5
75.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Will Hastings) to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 14:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 53 yds, downed at the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1676% → 75%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
75.8%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 15Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+1
75.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 1 yd to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 16
OWN 16
0
75.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 16
OWN 16
0
75.4%
Aidan Marshall punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5625% → 25%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
75.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
75.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
74.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
74.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
74.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Aub Deshaun Davis , return for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:4275% → 75%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
75.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-2
75.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+26
74.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 26 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
75.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
75.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 8 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
75.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
75.0%
Eli Stove run for 3 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
74.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
75.0%
Daniel Carlson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4525% → 25%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
74.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 5 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
74.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
75.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-10
75.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 46 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for a loss of 10 yards to the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6MISSED FG
15 plays · 45 yds · 6:4075% → 72%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
74.5%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
74.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 4 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+5
74.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
74.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 14 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
75.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-5
75.0%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-5
74.0%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Austin Golson) to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+24
73.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 24 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
75.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+2
74.6%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+10
74.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Marquis McClain for 10 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
74.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 30
-10
74.1%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Trysten Hill for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 24
OPP 40
+4
73.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 4 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 20
OPP 36
+53
72.4%
Daniel Carlson 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 2:5527% → 29%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
72.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
72.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-5
72.2%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+9
72.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
71.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+9
71.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 9 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
71.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
71.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+22
72.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 22 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
71.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-2
71.3%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 12
OPP 16
0
71.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+33
70.8%
Matthew Wright 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1772% → 74%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
72.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Devan Barrett for 4 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+13
72.4%
Eli Stove run for 13 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
73.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
73.8%
Jarrett Stidham run for 6 yds to the UCF 43 Jarrett Stidham fumbled, forced by A.J. Wooten, recovered by UCF Tre Neal , return for 36 yds to the Aub 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:3733% → 39%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
67.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
60.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 18 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 2:5163% → 58%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
62.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+15
61.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 15 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
61.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-10
61.3%
Johnson, Kerryon rush for 4 yards to the AUBURN34, PENALTY AUBURN holding (Dunn, Casey) 10 yards to the AUBURN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 17
OWN 20
-11
60.5%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 11 yards to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 28
OWN 17
0
59.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Aub 17 AUBURN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Chandler Cox) to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 28
OWN 9
0
58.3%
Aidan Marshall punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3443% → 42%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
50
+2
56.9%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
56.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
56.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 8
OPP 48
+39
58.3%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 17 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andrew Williams) to the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
18 plays · 62 yds · 4:0959% → 62%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
58.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 7 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+1
58.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 17Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+2
57.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
58.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+5
58.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
57.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+9
58.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
58.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 4
50
0
59.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 4
50
+19
57.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 19 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
59.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+10
59.1%
Stidham, Jarrett pass complete to Stove, Eli for 7 yards to the UCF24, PENALTY UCF holding (Wooten, A.J.) 10 yards to the UCF21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
59.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
59.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-8
57.2%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Tony Guerad for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 18
OPP 29
+46
61.5%
Daniel Carlson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:3540% → 53%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
60.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 15 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
57.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 16 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
55.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
55.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 11 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+45
46.6%
Matthew Wright 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:3558% → 71%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
58.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
71.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 26 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2536% → 36%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
64.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 17 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
62.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
61.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+4
61.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 4 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-5
62.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Chavis Dickey) to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
64.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:3067% → 83%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
66.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 19Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+13
66.1%
Kam Martin run for 13 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
66.7%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
66.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+29
65.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 29 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
69.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+16
69.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 16 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
70.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+10
70.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:5322% → 22%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
77.6%
Otis Anderson run for 11 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
77.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+23
77.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 23 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
76.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
76.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
77.8%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2381% → 79%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
81.1%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
81.2%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
79.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
79.1%
Aidan Marshall punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:3423% → 47%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
77.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
77.0%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+26
78.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 26 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
74.8%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+5
74.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 5 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+19
74.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 19 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
52.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2064% → 59%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
63.7%
Devan Barrett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 13
OWN 29
0
62.6%
Kam Martin run for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 29
-7
60.3%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Jamiyus Pittman and Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 20
OWN 22
+1
59.4%
Aidan Marshall punt for 38 yds , Mike Hughes returns for 1 yd to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0745% → 75%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
55.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+16
55.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 16 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
53.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 15 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
51.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Derrick Brown) to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 5
OPP 22
+4
50.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
50.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+8
52.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
50.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
25.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3934% → 30%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
33.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
32.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
31.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
29.6%
Aidan Marshall punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:3573% → 79%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
27.3%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+23
25.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 23 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
21.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+34
20.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 34 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
19.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Aub 14Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
19.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+6
20.0%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the Aub 8 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
21.0%
Matthew Wright 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Derrick BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24INT TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:5526% → 7%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
25.7%
Stidham, Jarrett pass incomplete to Slayton, Darius, PENALTY UCF pass interference (Clarke, Nevelle) 15 yards to the AUBURN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
25.3%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brandon Moore) to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+45
7.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted for a TD Chequan Burkett return for 45 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 1:327% → 30%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
6.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 13 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+30
6.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 30 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+32
8.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 18 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Targeting (Kyle Gibson Ejected) to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
8.6%
Jarrett Stidham run for 7 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 3
OPP 7
0
7.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
29.9%
Eli Stove run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26MISSED FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 1:4086% → 89%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
13.7%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+30
11.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 30 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
9.6%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-3
8.7%
Otis Anderson run for 12 yds to the Aub 10 UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (Jordan Akins) to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+2
9.0%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+2
8.7%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
10.8%
Matthew Wright 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27INT
12 plays · 58 yds · 1:4714% → 16%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
13.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
13.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Kerryon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+2
11.4%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+12
10.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 12 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
12.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 18 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
13.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
12.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+7
13.5%
Jarrett Stidham run for 7 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
14.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
13.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 13 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
16.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted, touchback. Antwan Collier return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
5.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:36
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-25.1
TD · Q4 4:12
Eli Stove run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+22.6
TD · Q3 1:30
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 12 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-21.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com