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MICH

Michigan 19 at South Carolina 26

SC
2017 · Outback Bowl · Jan 1, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:52 · Joseph Charlton punt for 38 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 14 yds to the SCaro 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Pregame prior−9.3Home team on offense−16.2Garbage-time factor−5.5Score differential−5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:56: Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +10.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:25: Rico Dowdle run for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SC win probability +8.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:51: Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 21 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +24.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 11:33: Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 53 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +29.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:47: Parker White 22 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +6.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 12:54MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:23SC 4th & 4 at SC 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:59MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:50SC 4th & 14 at MICH 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:19MICH 4th & 14 at MICH 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:42MICH 4th & 3 at SC 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:09MICH 4th & 4 at SC 8, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.2%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:22SC 4th & 13 at SC 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:21MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:45SC 4th & 3 at MICH 26, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.7%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:10MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:02SC 4th & 6 at SC 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:47MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:18SC 4th & 4 at SC 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:25MICH 4th & 4 at SC 43, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%
    28% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 13:30SC 4th & 17 at SC 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:52SC 4th & 6 at SC 8, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:42MICH 4th & 8 at SC 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:45MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:47SC 4th & 1 at MICH 5, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    67% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%−7.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−26.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:23MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:43SC 4th & 16 at MICH 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−1.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:05MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 9:56MICH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:25SC Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:51SC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:33SC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5774% → 73%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
26.5%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
26.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Sean McKeon for 6 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-7
26.9%
Brandon Peters sacked by T.J. Brunson for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
27.5%
Brad Robbins punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2228% → 28%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
27.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 6 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
27.8%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
27.7%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 4
OWN 43
-3
27.7%
Joseph Charlton punt for 50 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1672% → 71%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
27.8%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+3
28.0%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 4
OWN 10
0
28.4%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
28.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 31 yds, downed at the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5329% → 29%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
29.0%
Ty'Son Williams run for 3 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-7
29.1%
Jake Bentley sacked by Tarik Black for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 14
OPP 45
0
28.9%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
28.7%
Joseph Charlton punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:2271% → 69%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
29.0%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+1
29.2%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 18
-5
29.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 13Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 9
OWN 13
-5
30.2%
Peters, Brandon pass complete to Peoples-Jones, Donovan for 10 yards to the MICHIGAN23, PENALTY MICHIGAN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MICHIGAN8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 14
OWN 8
0
30.4%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 14
OWN 8
0
30.7%
Brad Robbins punt for 39 yds , Chris Lammons returns for no gain to the SCaro 46 Chris Lammons fumbled, recovered by Mich Ambry ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:3071% → 69%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
29.4%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
29.4%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+12
29.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 12 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
29.5%
Chris Evans run for 10 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
29.8%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the SCaro 24Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
30.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+4
30.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Nate Schoenle for 4 yds to the SCaro 17Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
30.8%
Quinn Nordin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:5031% → 32%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
30.8%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the SCaro 7Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+12
30.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 12 yds to the SCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
31.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 13 yds to the SCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
31.5%
Jake Bentley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 31 Jake Bentley fumbled, recovered by Mich Chase WinovichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:1070% → 71%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
30.0%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
30.0%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+14
30.3%
Peters, Brandon pass incomplete, PENALTY SOCAROLINA face mask 14 yards to the SOCAROLINA14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
29.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chris Evans for 5 yds to the SCaro 9Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
29.7%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the SCaro 8Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
30.4%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
28.9%
Quinn Nordin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:3830% → 29%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
29.5%
Ty'Son Williams run for 8 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 2
OWN 27
-2
30.0%
Hayden Hurst run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 25Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-4
29.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Ty'Son Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 21Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 8
OWN 21
-5
28.6%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 16Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
28.6%
Joseph Charlton punt for 49 yds, downed at the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:3971% → 70%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
28.7%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
29.0%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
29.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Zach Gentry for 15 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.8%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
27.9%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-9
28.1%
Brandon Peters sacked by Keisean Nixon for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
30.3%
Brad Robbins punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:1530% → 34%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+38
29.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 38 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
32.3%
A.J. Turner run for 8 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-1
32.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
31.6%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
34.1%
Parker White 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0568% → 68%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
32.2%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
31.7%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
30.9%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+10
32.4%
Will Hart punt for 35 yds , Chris Lammons returns for 10 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4833% → 33%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
32.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 2 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
33.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Randrecous Davis for 7 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
34.5%
Rico Dowdle run for no gain to the SCaro 44Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
34.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 39Similar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
32.6%
Joseph Charlton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0968% → 65%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
32.2%
Donovan Peoples-Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+2
33.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 2 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+2
34.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Nico Collins for 2 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 11
OWN 26
-5
35.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 21Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 16
OWN 21
0
34.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds , Chris Lammons returns for no gain to the SCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2535% → 35%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
34.8%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
34.5%
A.J. Turner run for 8 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-2
35.8%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 45Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+15
34.6%
Joseph Charlton punt for 30 yds, downed at the SOCAROLINA 25 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:5670% → 70%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
30.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Karan Higdon for 11 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
30.1%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
30.3%
Brandon Peters run for 6 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
31.1%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+10
32.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Sean McKeon for 10 yds to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
29.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chris Evans for 6 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
29.6%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:3025% → 29%
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+45
25.1%
Quinn Nordin 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.0%
Mon Denson run for 4 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
31.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Randrecous Davis for 8 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
31.8%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
31.6%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-7
30.4%
Jake Bentley sacked by Noah Furbush for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 30Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 17
OWN 30
-2
29.2%
Joseph Charlton punt for 40 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:1972% → 84%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
28.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 6 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+8
27.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 8 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
26.7%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+13
27.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Nico Collins for 13 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
26.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 27 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
25.9%
Karan Higdon run for 16 yds to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.6%
Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3821% → 19%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
20.7%
Ty'Son Williams run for no gain to the SCaro 26Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
20.3%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+27
19.1%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted Noah Furbush return for 27 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:0785% → 85%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
15.3%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
15.4%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+16
15.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 7 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (D.J. Smith) to the SCaro 9 for a 1ST down (D.J. Smith ejected for targeting)Similar
Q3 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
14.8%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the SCaro 4 Karan Higdon fumbled, forced by Javon Kinlaw, recovered by SCaro Chris LammonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4719% → 18%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
18.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 4 yds to the SCaro 8Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 8
0
18.7%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
18.0%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 6
OWN 8
+14
17.9%
Joseph Charlton punt for 38 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 14 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0387% → 88%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
13.2%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-2
13.0%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 30Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
13.2%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
12.5%
Quinn Nordin 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:0114% → 23%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
13.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 19 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
15.1%
Rico Dowdle run for no gain to the SCaro 42Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
14.7%
Bentley, Jake pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGAN offside 5 yards to the SOCAROLINA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
15.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Randrecous Davis for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 2
50
+11
13.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 11 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
14.1%
Bentley, Jake pass complete to Smith, OrTre for 10 yards to the MICHIGAN29, PENALTY SOCAROLINA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MICHIGAN44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+27
14.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 12 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
23.4%
Rico Dowdle run for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1480% → 80%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
20.2%
Karan Higdon run for 8 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+1
19.5%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 1
OWN 23
-2
19.9%
Brandon Peters run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 21 Brandon Peters fumbled, recovered by SCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
44.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 21 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:0064% → 63%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
36.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 14 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
32.9%
Karan Higdon run for no gain to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
33.7%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-5
35.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+2
35.7%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
36.8%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 27TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:4238% → 70%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
37.5%
Jake Bentley sacked by Rashan Gary for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 12Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
37.1%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+23
35.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 23 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
36.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 7 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
40.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Randrecous Davis for 5 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
69.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 53 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 28INT
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2535% → 40%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
64.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Zach Gentry for 12 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
63.5%
Peters, Brandon pass sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MICHIGAN24 (Bentley, Jake), PENALTY SOCAROLINA face mask 15 yards to the MICHIGAN47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
60.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 17 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
60.1%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+15
56.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 15 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
56.9%
Karan Higdon run for 11 yds to the SCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
57.1%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
57.3%
Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the SCaro 5Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.5%
Brandon Peters pass intercepted, touchback. JaMarcus King return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 29FUMBLE
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:1772% → 76%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
72.2%
Rico Dowdle run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
50
-4
78.6%
Hayden Hurst run for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 46Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
76.9%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+11
76.0%
Jake Bentley run for 11 yds to the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 30FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2885% → 92%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
85.1%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the Mich 14Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-1
86.1%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 15Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+10
85.1%
Jake Bentley run for 10 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+22
91.7%
Parker White 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 31DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1912% → 11%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.6%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
88.7%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 32MISSED FG
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:3593% → 93%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
93.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 14
OPP 29
-2
94.9%
Rico Dowdle run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 16
OPP 31
0
94.9%
Rico Dowdle run for no gain to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 16
OPP 31
+48
93.1%
Parker White 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 33INT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3310% → 10%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
90.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 8 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
88.9%
Brandon Peters run for 1 yd to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
89.2%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
90.5%
Brandon Peters pass intercepted Steven Montac return for 2 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 34END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:33
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 53 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+29.1
TD · Q3 0:51
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 21 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+24.9
TD · Q3 9:56
Ben Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com