Try the model
WASH

Washington 28 at Penn State 35

PSU
2017 · Postseason · Dec 30, 2017 · State Farm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:34 · Tyler Davis 45 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Home team on offense+25.8Pregame prior+0.1Garbage-time factor+16.7Score differential+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:01: Saquon Barkley run for 92 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:15: Myles Gaskin run for 13 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK) — WASH win probability +9.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:57: Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 28 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK) — WASH win probability +11.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:59: Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:52: Myles Gaskin run for 69 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK) — WASH win probability +9.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:46WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 15, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:46WASH 4th & 17 at WASH 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:45WASH 4th & 4 at PSU 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:47WASH 4th & 13 at WASH 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:55PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:00WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:15PSU 4th & 6 at WASH 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:11WASH 4th & 9 at WASH 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:06PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:34PSU 4th & 6 at WASH 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:05WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:10PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:34PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:57WASH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:59PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:01PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:15WASH Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:57WASH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:59PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:52WASH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:3560% → 61%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
59.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for no gain to the PnSt 17Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
59.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+12
59.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 12 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
59.5%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+12
59.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
50
+5
59.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 5 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-3
60.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 48Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+48
61.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 48 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0439% → 38%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
61.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 8 yds to the Wash 15Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 2
OWN 15
0
61.1%
Myles Gaskin run for no gain to the Wash 15Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 15
0
61.5%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Aaron FullerSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 2
OWN 15
-6
61.7%
Joel Whitford punt for 45 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 34 DeAndre Thompkins fumbled, recovered by PnSt DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3INT
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:1762% → 63%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
61.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Miles Sanders for 4 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
62.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Miles SandersSimilar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+17
61.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 17 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
62.4%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Wash 43 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
62.7%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted, touchback. Byron Murphy return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3138% → 37%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.0%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Drew SampleSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
62.1%
Lavon Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 19Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-6
62.6%
Jake Browning sacked by Tyrell Chavis for a loss of 6 yards to the Wash 13Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+1
63.1%
Joel Whitford punt for 52 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:0663% → 70%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.9%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
63.0%
Trace McSorley run for 12 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
63.7%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+9
63.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
64.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 20 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
64.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the Wash 12Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+7
65.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 7 yds to the Wash 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
65.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Wash 4Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
65.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 2 yds to the Wash 2Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2831% → 38%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
68.6%
Myles Gaskin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 21Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
69.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Shane Simmons) to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+52
68.8%
Andre Baccellia pass complete to Will Dissly for 52 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
67.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 11 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.0%
Jake Browning run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:4665% → 74%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
64.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for no gain to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
64.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 4 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+26
64.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 26 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
66.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 11 yds to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Tommy StevensSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+34
67.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 34 yds to the Wash 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
68.0%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) to the Wash 1Similar
Q2 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.1%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:5529% → 27%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
71.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 26 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
71.0%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Aaron FullerSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
71.3%
Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds to the Wash 48Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+4
71.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
72.7%
Jake Browning punt for 41 yds, downed at the PnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 93 yds · 0:3974% → 86%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
74.1%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 8Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+92
85.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 92 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0316% → 14%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
84.4%
Myles Gaskin run for 1 yd to the Wash 16Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-10
84.5%
Jake Browning sacked by Kevin Givens and Parker Cothren for a loss of 10 yards to the Wash 6Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 19
OWN 6
+6
85.5%
Lavon Coleman run for 6 yds to the Wash 12Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
85.7%
Joel Whitford punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
87.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Wash Ryan BowmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:1916% → 24%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
83.8%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Andre BaccelliaSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
84.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+8
84.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 8 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
84.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 6 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+2
85.3%
Lavon Coleman run for 2 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
76.0%
Myles Gaskin run for 13 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:1078% → 80%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
78.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 13Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+8
79.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
79.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
80.3%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+18
80.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 18 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
81.7%
Miles Sanders run for 2 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-1
82.1%
Trace McSorley sacked by Byron Murphy for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+5
80.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 5 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
79.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 47 yds, downed at the Wash 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:4720% → 19%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
80.0%
Myles Gaskin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 5Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+6
79.6%
Myles Gaskin run for 6 yds to the Wash 11Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+8
80.6%
Jake Browning run for 8 yds to the Wash 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:5320% → 32%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
80.5%
Myles Gaskin run for 1 yd to the Wash 21Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
80.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Ty Jones for 12 yds to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
80.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Will Dissly for 7 yds to the Wash 40Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
79.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 2 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
79.7%
Myles Gaskin run for 3 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
80.3%
Lavon Coleman run for 4 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+9
79.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 9 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Lavon Coleman for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
80.5%
Myles Gaskin run for 8 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+3
80.1%
Myles Gaskin run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
79.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Andre Baccellia for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
79.7%
Jake Browning pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+28
68.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 28 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:5174% → 88%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
74.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+24
74.4%
Trace McSorley run for 24 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
76.9%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the Wash 44Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
76.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 3 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+11
77.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 11 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
78.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
79.2%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the Wash 24Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+24
87.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5015% → 12%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Drew Sample for 6 yds to the Wash 31Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
84.2%
Myles Gaskin run for no gain to the Wash 31Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
85.7%
Jake Browning sacked by Shareef Miller for a loss of 6 yards to the Wash 25Similar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
87.8%
Joel Whitford punt for 46 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18INT
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:4589% → 94%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
88.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for 2 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
89.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
89.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 15 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
91.8%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
91.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Tommy StevensSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+9
91.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 9 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
92.6%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the Wash 31Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
92.8%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the Wash 26Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-4
92.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 30Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+7
92.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 7 yds to the Wash 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
93.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the Wash 18Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+7
93.6%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Austin Joyner return for 7 yds to the Wash 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:449% → 8%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
90.6%
Andre Baccellia run for 9 yds to the Wash 28Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 1
OWN 28
-3
89.8%
Myles Gaskin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 25Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+6
90.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Salvon Ahmed for 6 yds to the Wash 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
90.4%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Myles GaskinSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
90.9%
Salvon Ahmed run for 1 yd to the Wash 32Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
92.0%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Dante PettisSimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+20
92.2%
Joel Whitford punt for 54 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 20 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5994% → 95%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
94.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-4
94.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+6
94.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 6 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
95.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 1:037% → 17%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
92.7%
Jake Browning sacked by Yetur Gross-Matos for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 20Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+11
92.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Ty Jones for 11 yds to the Wash 31Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+69
83.3%
Myles Gaskin run for 69 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22MISSED FG
20 plays · 47 yds · 6:0688% → 97%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.1%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
88.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 1 yd to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
89.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 12 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
90.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
93.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
92.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
93.8%
Miles Sanders run for 1 yd to the Wash 47Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
94.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Wash 46Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+14
95.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 14 yds to the Wash 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
96.1%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the Wash 29Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+5
96.1%
Miles Sanders run for 5 yds to the Wash 24Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
96.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Wash 23Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-5
96.4%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Brendan Mahon) to the Wash 28Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
96.5%
Tyler Davis 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:217% → 6%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
93.1%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Ty JonesSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
93.4%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Aaron FullerSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
93.7%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Will DisslySimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+14
93.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 10 yds to the PnSt 48 lat. to Dante Pettis for 14 yds Dante Pettis fumbled, recovered by PnSt Brandon SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:01
Saquon Barkley run for 92 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q3 9:57
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 28 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q4 6:52
Myles Gaskin run for 69 yds for a TD, (Tristan Vizcaino KICK)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com