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ISU

Iowa State 21 at Memphis 20

MEM
2017 · Postseason · Dec 30, 2017 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:28: Joel Lanning run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ISU win probability +9.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Riley Patterson 34 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +8.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 13:22: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 36 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +12.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:28: Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ISU win probability +20.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:46: Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 43 — ISU win probability +18.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:59MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:16ISU 4th & 8 at MEM 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:00ISU 4th & 20 at ISU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:47MEM 4th & 11 at ISU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:47ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:33MEM 4th & 8 at ISU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.6%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:35ISU 4th & 5 at MEM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:10MEM 4th & 18 at MEM 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−2.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:18ISU 4th & 20 at MEM 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:37ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 19, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:14MEM 4th & 19 at ISU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    63.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:16MEM 4th & 3 at ISU 13, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%−1.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−13.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:44ISU 4th & 18 at midfield, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−5.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:29MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 14, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−4.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:45ISU 4th & 1 at MEM 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−9.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−10.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:15MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.5%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:52MEM 4th & 10 at ISU 40, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.1 ptsWent for it · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%−4.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%
    34% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−8.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:09ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:00MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:28ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:22MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:28ISU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:4040% → 41%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
59.8%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 6 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
59.7%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
59.7%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 4 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
59.7%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
59.6%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+52
59.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 52 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5859% → 58%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
59.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
59.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 10 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
59.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
59.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-2
58.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
58.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 53 yds, downed at the IowSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3FUMBLE
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:3442% → 44%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
58.3%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+20
58.1%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 20 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.7%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
57.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 3 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+19
57.2%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 19 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
56.5%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
56.4%
IOWA ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Julian Good-Jones) to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+16
56.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 16 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
55.8%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+1
55.7%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 1 yd to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
55.6%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 8
OPP 39
-2
55.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the IowSt 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by IowSt Colin Downing , return for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:1057% → 61%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
57.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 30 yds to the IowSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
60.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4041% → 40%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.5%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
59.5%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to David Montgomery for 8 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-19
59.1%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 19 yards to the IowSt 15Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+9
60.3%
Colin Downing punt for 47 yds , John Williams returns for 9 yds to the Memph 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:0261% → 60%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
60.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+27
60.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 27 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
61.3%
Ferguson, Riley pass complete to Mayhue, Phil for 21 yards to the IOWAST0, PENALTY MEMPHIS ineligible downfield on pass (Kuhn, Gabe) 5 yards to the IOWAST26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+2
61.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+2
61.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
60.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+38
59.6%
Riley Patterson 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3341% → 42%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
58.9%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 5 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
58.5%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+13
59.1%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 13 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
57.9%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 7 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
57.4%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 48Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
57.6%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
58.3%
Colin Downing punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:5460% → 60%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
59.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+8
59.6%
Tony Pollard run for 8 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
59.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 5 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
60.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
50
+11
61.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 11 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
61.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Mechane Slade for 8 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 2
OPP 31
-5
62.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Gabe Kuhn) to the IowSt 36Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
61.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the IowSt 36Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-1
61.5%
Riley Ferguson sacked by J.D. Waggoner for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 8
OPP 37
-8
60.0%
Riley Ferguson sacked by JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:5943% → 56%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
56.9%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Matthew EatonSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
57.0%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+13
56.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 13 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
55.3%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+1
55.0%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
54.7%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+12
56.1%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 12 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
53.5%
David Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+1
53.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 1 yd to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+10
54.1%
Kyle Kempt run for 10 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
53.0%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd to the Memph 2Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.7%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:5047% → 44%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
47.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 26Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+3
46.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 3 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-5
45.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Anthony Miller) to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 15
OWN 24
-3
44.7%
Riley Ferguson sacked by J.D. Waggoner for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
43.8%
Nick Jacobs punt for 40 yds, downed at the IowSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:4558% → 58%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
41.6%
Kempt, Kyle pass incomplete to Lazard, Allen, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference (Thomas, La'Andre) 15 yards to the MEMPHIS46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
40.3%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Chase AllenSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+22
40.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 22 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
39.5%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
39.6%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-10
40.2%
Kyle Kempt sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 10 yards to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+51
42.5%
Garrett Owens 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 49 yds · 1:0844% → 57%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
44.4%
Riley Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-3
45.2%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Trever Ryen for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+22
42.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 22 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
47.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 10 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
48.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 2 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
48.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+15
46.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 15 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+34
56.8%
Riley Patterson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:3352% → 67%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
51.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+21
51.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 21 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
54.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 9 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+36
67.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 36 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1837% → 35%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
62.9%
David Montgomery run for 8 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 2
OWN 19
0
62.4%
Kyle Kempt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 2
OWN 19
0
63.8%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Hakeem ButlerSimilar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
65.1%
Colin Downing punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1066% → 63%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
66.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+25
66.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 25 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
67.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 13
OPP 33
0
67.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 13
OPP 33
-6
65.2%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Joel Lanning for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 39Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
62.7%
Nick Jacobs punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:3237% → 63%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
63.2%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the IowSt 16Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+13
63.6%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 13 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
62.7%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 18 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
59.8%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
60.3%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 15 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
59.2%
Kyle Kempt pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
59.2%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 7 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+19
59.0%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 19 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
57.4%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
56.9%
Kempt, Kyle pass pass intended for Lazard, Allen intercepted by Akins, Curtis at the MEMPHIS0, Akins, Curtis return 24 yards to the MEMPHIS24, PENALTY MEMPHIS roughing passer 4 yards to the MEMPHIS5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.9%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the Memph 5Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.9%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:4447% → 55%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
46.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 22 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
48.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 20 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
50.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
49.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+2
47.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 2 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
54.9%
Riley Patterson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 4:1150% → 50%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
50.5%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
51.0%
David Montgomery run for 16 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
47.3%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+10
45.4%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 10 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
44.9%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
44.5%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-10
44.8%
Kyle Kempt sacked by Austin Hall for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 18
50
+2
50.5%
Colin Downing punt for 38 yds , Tony Pollard returns for 2 yds to the Memph 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5150% → 46%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
49.7%
Anthony Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 12 Anthony Miller fumbled, recovered by MemphSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
49.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+2
47.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 2 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
45.7%
Spencer Smith punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Allen Lazard at the Memph 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20FUMBLE
13 plays · 44 yds · 6:5957% → 66%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
43.2%
Kyle Kempt run for 6 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-9
41.3%
Kyle Kempt sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 13
OPP 48
-5
45.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Kyle Kempt) to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 18
OWN 47
+17
46.2%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 17 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+5
45.6%
Joel Lanning run for 5 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
38.3%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
37.8%
David Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
35.8%
Kyle Kempt run for 1 yd to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+15
35.2%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 15 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
34.7%
David Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.3%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 0
OPP 1
0
34.1%
David Montgomery run for no gain David Montgomery fumbled, forced by O'Bryan Goodson, recovered by Memph Jonathan CookSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 40 yds · 1:5850% → 46%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
50.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-3
48.7%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Marcel Spears Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+10
45.9%
Ferguson, Riley pass incomplete to Miller, Anthony, PENALTY IOWAST pass interference (Peavy, Brian) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
47.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 14 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
52.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
49.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
46.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+16
43.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 16 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
53.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Kedarian JonesSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
51.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Patrick Taylor Jr.Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
45.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:4673% → 93%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
26.7%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
24.0%
Joel Lanning run for 9 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
17.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 48Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-6
16.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 42
-5
6.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:28
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 5 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
-20
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:46
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 43
-18.9
TD · Q3 13:22
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 36 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com