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LOU

Louisville 27 at Mississippi State 31

MSST
2017 · Postseason · Dec 30, 2017 · EverBank Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:30 · Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.5+11.30−11.3−22.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior−2.4Home team on offense−4.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:29: Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +9.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +13.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:22: Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +25.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:38: Blanton Creque 31 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +13.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:39: Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +45.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:54LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:00LOU 4th & 2 at MSST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    60.2%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:10LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:00MSST 4th & 1 at LOU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%−1.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:07MSST 4th & 12 at LOU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:48MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:21MSST 4th & 6 at LOU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:14MSST 4th & 12 at LOU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:21LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:49LOU 4th & 10 at MSST 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−9.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:04MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:59LOU 4th & 4 at MSST 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:14LOU 4th & 5 at MSST 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−13.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:55MSST 4th & 4 at LOU 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−4.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:30LOU 4th & 2 at MSST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%−3.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−20.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:38LOU 4th & 4 at MSST 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%−1.0
    84% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−22.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:39MSST 4th & 2 at LOU 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−2.0
    60% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−12.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:20LOU 4th & 20 at LOU 24, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:47MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:35LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:11MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:29LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:19LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:22MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:39MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5565% → 64%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
35.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+15
35.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
35.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+7
35.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
35.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+17
36.0%
Mason King punt for 38 yds , Gabe Myles returns for 17 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:5336% → 39%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+29
36.3%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 29 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
36.8%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+4
36.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
37.3%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+8
37.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
38.7%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:0262% → 63%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
37.9%
Malik Williams run for no gain to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
38.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 9
50
+18
38.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 18 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
38.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
38.7%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+10
39.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 10 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+16
40.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Kemari Averett for 16 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
39.9%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
37.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 5 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:0938% → 45%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
38.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
39.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
38.8%
Aeris Williams run for 20 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
39.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+8
40.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jamal Couch for 8 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+6
40.1%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
40.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 24 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
40.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
45.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5056% → 55%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
44.1%
Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
43.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
44.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Javonte Bagley, broken up by Cameron DantzlerSimilar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+4
45.2%
Mason King punt for 49 yds , Gabe Myles returns for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6MISSED FG
16 plays · 49 yds · 5:0345% → 48%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
44.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+20
44.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 20 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
46.2%
Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
46.6%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 1
50
+4
46.5%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
47.4%
Nick Gibson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+8
47.7%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
47.9%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
48.9%
Nick Gibson run for no gain to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+4
48.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+5
48.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
49.9%
Keytaon Thompson sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
50.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
49.1%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+42
47.8%
Jace Christmann 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:3752% → 62%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
47.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Cole Bentley) to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+50
46.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 35 yds to the MISSSTATE 44 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
44.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
45.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+12
47.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 12 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
38.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2243% → 42%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
43.0%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
43.5%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
43.1%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
42.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Reggie Bonnafon at the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:4859% → 58%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
41.3%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 24Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 17
OWN 24
0
41.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+30
42.2%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Mark McLaurin return for 30 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:1247% → 49%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
47.2%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+2
47.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+4
46.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
47.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for no gain to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
48.2%
Thompson, Keytaon pass incomplete to Thomas, Jordan, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Calhoun, Deion) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+4
47.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+10
46.1%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 10 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q2 4:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
49.3%
Jace Christmann 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:2252% → 53%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
48.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (C.J. Morgan) to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
46.5%
Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
46.3%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+15
47.4%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Cameron Dantzler return for 15 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:3952% → 54%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
51.9%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+17
50.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Reginald Todd for 17 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
51.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
53.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Reginald Todd for 15 yds Reginald Todd fumbled, forced by Trumaine Washington, recovered by Lvile Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 88 yds · 0:4150% → 67%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
50.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+75
50.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 75 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
33.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
40.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:2141% → 38%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
41.3%
Aeris Williams run for 11 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
42.5%
Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
42.8%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
42.4%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+5
40.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 7
OPP 36
-5
40.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
37.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4962% → 59%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
38.1%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Gerri Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
38.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-2
39.0%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Johnathan Abram and Gerri Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 8
OWN 22
-10
40.7%
Mason King punt for 48 yds , Gabe Myles returns for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 20 Gabe Myles fumbled, recovered by LvileSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2766% → 62%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
33.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
34.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-7
35.2%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
38.1%
Blanton Creque 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3639% → 37%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
39.3%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
39.2%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
37.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 8
OWN 22
-5
37.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 17Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+9
37.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds , Reggie Bonnafon returns for 9 yds to the Lvile 26 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0164% → 64%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
35.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 35 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamar Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+11
37.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+5
35.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 5 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
36.2%
Mason King punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
38.1%
Keytaon Thompson pass intercepted Chucky Williams return for 1 yd to the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:3868% → 74%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
32.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+9
32.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 9 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
31.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 12 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
31.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
29.6%
Dae Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
30.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
26.0%
Blanton Creque 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0531% → 31%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
30.8%
Kylin Hill run for 16 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
33.6%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
33.1%
Hill, Kylin rush for 14 yards to the LOUISVILLE38, PENALTY MISSSTATE illegal shift 5 yards to the MISSSTATE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+4
30.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+7
30.5%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 7 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
31.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 44 yds, downed at the Lvile 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:2073% → 77%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
27.2%
Dae Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 1Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+10
27.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 10 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+14
27.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
23.5%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Mark McLaurin return for 12 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:3834% → 59%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
33.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+14
33.4%
Keytaon Thompson run for 14 yds to the Lvile 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
33.4%
Nick Gibson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (2 yards) (2 Yards) to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 5:4452% → 70%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
48.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brandon Bryant) to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
45.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
44.3%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
44.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 5 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
43.3%
Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+8
42.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
42.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
42.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+2
43.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+7
46.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
41.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
42.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Mekhi Becton) to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+11
44.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
44.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
30.5%
Blanton Creque 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:4239% → 87%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.6%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
37.1%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+20
36.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jamal Couch for 20 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
42.5%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-5
42.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Darryl Williams) to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+14
41.7%
Keytaon Thompson run for 14 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
43.9%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+7
44.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
44.2%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
44.3%
Jesse Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 14Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+13
41.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 13 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27INT
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:2527% → 33%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
71.9%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete to Standberry, Charles, PENALTY MISSSTATE personal foul (Simmons, Jeffery) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
50
+9
67.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:4488% → 91%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
88.2%
Aeris Williams run for 15 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Chucky Williams) to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
89.9%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+1
92.2%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+3
91.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-6
91.3%
Keytaon Thompson sacked by Stacy Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3013% → 9%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
87.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-10
86.7%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Jeffery Simmons and J.T. Gray for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-9
90.9%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Kobe Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 20
OWN 24
+22
91.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 22 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
90.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:39
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+45.8
TD · Q4 13:22
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+25.9
FG · Q4 7:38
Blanton Creque 31 yd FG GOOD
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com