Try the model
UK

Kentucky 23 at Northwestern 24

NU
2017 · Postseason · Dec 29, 2017 · Nissan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.4NU 66.6%Charlie Kuhbander 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 3 · Q1 3:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:14 · Charlie Kuhbander 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+16.2Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:12: Justin Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +7.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:11: Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +15.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 7:49: Stephen Johnson pass intercepted by Kyle Queiro return for 26 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +20.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:24: Austin MacGinnis 48 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +5.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:37: Stephen Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UK win probability +30.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:55NU 4th & 3 at NU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:59UK 4th & 10 at UK 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:38NU 4th & 16 at NU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:14UK 4th & 7 at UK 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:05NU 4th & 1 at UK 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.2%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:14NU 4th & 7 at UK 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:16UK 4th & 9 at NU 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:00UK 4th & 29 at UK 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:55NU 4th & 3 at UK 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−1.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:48UK 4th & 20 at NU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:31NU 4th & 1 at NU 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:41NU 4th & 2 at UK 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−0.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:53NU 4th & 20 at UK 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−5.1
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−10.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:43UK 4th & 9 at UK 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:59NU 4th & 11 at NU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−4.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:41UK 4th & 10 at UK 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:24NU 4th & 1 at UK 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−7.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−25.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:20UK 4th & 2 at NU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:24UK 4th & 3 at NU 30, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.8%−1.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:31NU 4th & 1 at NU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.0%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:42UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:07NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:12NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:11UK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:49NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:37UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 5.0 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.7%−5.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0630% → 31%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
70.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 26 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
69.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+37
69.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 37 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
69.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Nwest 3Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2769% → 68%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-13
68.8%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (-12 Yards) to the Nwest 12Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+10
68.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 10 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+10
68.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 10 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
68.0%
Hunter Niswander punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3932% → 32%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
67.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 22Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
67.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
67.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Kayaune RossSimilar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
67.9%
Matt Panton punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1168% → 66%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
67.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
67.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-9
66.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Joshua Paschal for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 16
OWN 26
0
66.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1133% → 34%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
66.2%
Sihiem King run for 5 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
66.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
66.3%
Matt Panton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:3566% → 67%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
66.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 28 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
66.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+3
66.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
66.2%
Jeremy Larkin run for no gain to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
65.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+12
66.1%
Jelani Roberts run for 12 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
66.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
66.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
65.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
66.6%
Charlie Kuhbander 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:4334% → 35%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
65.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 18 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
64.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
64.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Josh Ali for 5 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
64.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 4
OPP 41
-5
65.2%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
65.5%
Matt Panton punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:5965% → 70%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
65.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+24
65.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 9 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
66.3%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
66.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+14
66.3%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
66.9%
Jeremy Larkin pass complete to Clayton Thorson for 24 yds to the Kent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
70.2%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:5332% → 31%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
67.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Justin RiggSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+23
68.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 23 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-22
67.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 44 KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Benny Snell Jr.) to the Kent 41. Snell ejected for contacting official.Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 32
OWN 41
0
68.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 32
OWN 41
+3
68.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Sihiem King for 3 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 29
OWN 44
0
69.3%
Matt Panton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:5668% → 69%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
68.2%
Justin Jackson run for 14 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
68.4%
Matt Alviti run for 3 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
68.4%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+16
67.8%
Matt Alviti run for 16 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
69.9%
Flynn Nagel run for 4 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
70.0%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+3
69.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
69.2%
Matt Alviti pass incomplete to Jace JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2633% → 33%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
66.9%
Sihiem King run for 2 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
66.6%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted Montre Hartage return for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:5370% → 78%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+28
70.3%
Matt Alviti pass complete to Charlie Fessler for 28 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
71.2%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+3
71.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+18
70.4%
Justin Jackson run for 18 yds to the Kent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:1225% → 22%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
75.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 6 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
74.7%
Stephen Johnson run for no gain to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+25
75.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 25 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
74.0%
Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
74.1%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
75.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 5
OPP 28
-15
76.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 20
OPP 43
0
77.8%
Matt Panton punt for 26 yds, downed at the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4078% → 79%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
78.4%
Matt Alviti sacked by Calvin Taylor Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+10
78.2%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+1
79.3%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+5
78.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 41 yds , Charles Walker returns for 5 yds to the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:2221% → 23%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
79.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Targeting ( Paddy Fisher ), KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul, offsetting. Fisher ejected.Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
79.0%
Drew Barker pass complete to Sihiem King for no gain to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
79.2%
Drew Barker pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 16 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
77.3%
Drew Barker sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 48 Drew Barker fumbled, recovered by KentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16DOWNS
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:0279% → 81%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
78.8%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
79.4%
Matt Alviti pass complete to Jace James for 5 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
80.1%
Jelani Roberts run for 1 yd to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
80.1%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
80.3%
Matt Alviti run for 3 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
81.2%
Matt Alviti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
81.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+11
80.6%
Matt Alviti pass complete to Jace James for 11 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
82.1%
Matt Alviti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
82.1%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+6
81.4%
Matt Alviti run for 6 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 2
OPP 26
0
80.8%
Matt Alviti pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:1920% → 38%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
80.3%
Sihiem King run for 12 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
79.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 6 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+37
79.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 37 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
77.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 2 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+14
77.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 14 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.6%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18MISSED FG
15 plays · 40 yds · 5:5369% → 66%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
69.2%
Matt Alviti pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 6 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
71.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
70.6%
Matt Alviti run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
71.4%
Justin Jackson run for 15 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
71.9%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-15
72.8%
Larkin, Jeremy rush for 11 yards to the KENTUCKY24, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN personal foul 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 21
50
+16
69.6%
Matt Alviti run for 16 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+18
71.5%
Jeremy Larkin run for 3 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
72.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 20
OPP 26
0
72.4%
Matt Alviti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+3
71.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 17
OPP 23
-5
69.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 22
OPP 28
+2
69.4%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+43
66.4%
Charlie Kuhbander 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:5332% → 31%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
67.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 18 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
64.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Asim Rose for 1 yd to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
65.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
66.7%
Drew Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
69.1%
Matt Panton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:3172% → 69%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
71.5%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+9
71.6%
Matt Alviti run for 9 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
72.1%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+2
71.4%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
70.1%
Matt Alviti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 11
OWN 27
+3
68.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds , Charles Walker returns for 3 yds to the Kent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:5931% → 29%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
68.6%
Sihiem King run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+14
69.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 14 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
66.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
67.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
68.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+2
70.6%
Matt Panton punt for 36 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 2 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:5473% → 74%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+64
73.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 64 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
77.4%
Matt Alviti pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
77.4%
Jeremy Larkin run for 7 yds to the Kent 4Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
76.0%
Jeremy Larkin run for 2 yds to the Kent 2Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
73.9%
Riley Lees pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23INT TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:2231% → 10%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+14
69.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 14 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+26
89.6%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted by Kyle Queiro return for 26 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:1110% → 16%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
90.3%
Johnson, Stephen pass incomplete to Ross, Kayaune, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference 14 yards to the KENTUCKY40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
89.5%
Sihiem King run for 11 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
88.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
88.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+8
90.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Sihiem King for 8 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+4
90.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
89.9%
Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
88.6%
Johnson, Stephen pass incomplete to Ross, Kayaune, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN offside 5 yards to the NORTHWSTRN29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
88.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-1
89.6%
Sihiem King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
84.2%
Austin MacGinnis 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:4992% → 94%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
91.6%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
92.5%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-1
93.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+3
94.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
94.3%
Matt Alviti run for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:4612% → 43%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
88.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 16 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
85.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 17
-2
85.5%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Warren Long for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+10
87.5%
Johnson, Stephen pass incomplete, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
56.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:37
Stephen Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-30.6
TD · Q4 7:49
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted by Kyle Queiro return for 26 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+20.2
TD · Q3 7:11
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com