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STAN

Stanford 37 at TCU 39

TCU
2017 · Valero Alamo Bowl · Dec 28, 2017 · Alamodome
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:45 · Jake Bailey punt for 35 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense−17.4Pregame prior+2.8Score differential−5.6Garbage-time factor−5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:51: Desmon White 11 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Cole Bunce Kick) — TCU win probability +17.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 14:34: Jalen Reagor 93 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TCU win probability +23.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:49: Desmon White 76 Yd Punt Return (Cole Bunce Kick) — TCU win probability +25.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:42: JJ Arcega-Whiteside 4 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — STAN win probability +36.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:07: Cole Bunce 33 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +21.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:30STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:22TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 36, tied
    Close callWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:25STAN 4th & 8 at TCU 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:01TCU 4th & 12 at STAN 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:54TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 13, down 11
    Close callPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:30TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:23STAN 4th & 1 at TCU 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−2.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:46STAN 4th & 12 at STAN 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00TCU 4th & 3 at STAN 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−2.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:09STAN 4th & 6 at TCU 10, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−15.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:45STAN 4th & 10 at TCU 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:49STAN 4th & 25 at STAN 16, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−11.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:07TCU 4th & 6 at STAN 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−14.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−27.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:42STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:51STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:24STAN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:06TCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:11TCU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:01STAN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:51TCU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:34TCU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:49TCU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:42STAN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    53.4%−1.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:1738% → 38%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
61.6%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
61.7%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
61.8%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Brandt-Sims) to the Stanf 24Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+11
61.8%
Jake Bailey punt for 56 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 11 yds to the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4862% → 62%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
61.7%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
61.7%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
61.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+1
61.5%
Adam Nunez run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5039% → 39%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
61.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
61.1%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
61.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+52
61.4%
Jet Toner 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+37
61.7%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Frank Buncom return for 37 yds to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:0839% → 42%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
60.8%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the TCU 22Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+7
60.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 7 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+15
58.4%
Bryce Love 15 Yd Run (Jet Toner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2459% → 60%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
59.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+2
58.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+42
58.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 42 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
59.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 18 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
59.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
59.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 12
OPP 20
0
58.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Sewo OloniluaSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+38
59.5%
Cole Bunce 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:4940% → 47%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
59.6%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+18
59.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 18 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
58.6%
Bryce Love run for 21 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
58.1%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+1
57.8%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+12
58.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 12 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
53.1%
JJ Arcega-Whiteside 18 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2053% → 51%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
52.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 4 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+2
52.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+3
51.6%
Kenny Hill run for 3 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
51.3%
Adam Nunez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Connor Wedington at the Stanf 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9INT
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3249% → 49%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
51.2%
Bryce Love run for 10 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
50.8%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted, touchback. Nick Orr return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3652% → 50%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
51.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
51.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
50.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
49.9%
Andrew David punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Trenton Irwin at the Stanf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 5:4151% → 67%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
48.9%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+3
48.4%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+5
48.0%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 5 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
48.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
46.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 7 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
46.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
46.8%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
46.0%
Trevor Speights run for 15 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
45.5%
Trevor Speights run for no gain to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
44.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 1 yd to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
32.6%
JJ Arcega-Whiteside 14 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Jet Toner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:5436% → 45%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
36.0%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+12
35.9%
Kenny Hill run for 12 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
36.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+17
35.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 17 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
35.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 4 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+1
35.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 1 yd to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+27
34.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 27 yds to the Stanf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
34.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
45.0%
Kenny Hill 6 Yd Run (Cole Bunce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5859% → 59%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
41.2%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 17
OWN 19
0
41.3%
K.J. Costello pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 17
OWN 19
+5
41.8%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+7
41.4%
Jake Bailey punt for 44 yds , Desmon White returns for 7 yds to the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3040% → 38%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
40.2%
Kenny Hill run for 12 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
41.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
41.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 3 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
38.2%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted, touchback. Frank Buncom return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3938% → 52%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kenedy Snell for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
37.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 12 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
38.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
39.6%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+8
38.9%
Kenny Hill run for 8 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
39.4%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
38.8%
Kenedy Snell run for 4 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+10
38.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 10 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
52.0%
Kenny Hill 27 Yd pass from Desmon White (Cole Bunce PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:4955% → 70%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
45.0%
Bryce Love run for 6 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
43.8%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+1
43.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
29.8%
Bryce Love 69 Yd Run (Jet Toner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0232% → 51%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
31.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 16 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
32.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 14 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
33.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 7 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
32.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Dylan ThomasSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+12
32.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 12 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
34.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
33.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 14 yds to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
50.5%
Desmon White 11 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Cole Bunce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:1658% → 72%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
41.8%
Bryce Love run for 12 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
39.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+50
40.2%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 50 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
35.0%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the TCU 14Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
34.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
35.7%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kaden SmithSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
28.5%
Jet Toner 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:0130% → 29%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
29.7%
KaVontae Turpin run for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+13
29.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 13 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
28.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 11 yds Desmon White fumbled, forced by Malik Antoine, recovered by Stanf Frank BuncomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4576% → 73%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
24.2%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
23.9%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
24.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
26.6%
Jake Bailey punt for 35 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
1 play · 93 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+93
50.4%
Jalen Reagor 93 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22PUNT TD
5 plays · -15 yds · 2:2655% → 29%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
45.2%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
43.7%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 35 Bryce Love fumbled, recovered by Stanf A.T. Hall at the Stanf 23Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 18
OWN 23
-7
46.1%
K.J. Costello sacked by L.J. Collier for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 16Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 25
OWN 16
+76
71.5%
Desmon White 76 Yd Punt Return (Cole Bunce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:4832% → 64%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
68.3%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
68.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+21
70.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 21 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+35
64.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 35 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
60.2%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
58.2%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+11
62.5%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 11 yds to the TCU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
60.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 4Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
62.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.8%
JJ Arcega-Whiteside 4 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:1849% → 76%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
49.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
51.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
50
+5
54.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 5 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+9
55.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
55.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 16 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
57.6%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
57.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-1
54.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 16Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
75.9%
Cole Bunce 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25INT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:0033% → 30%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
66.6%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (K.J. Costello) to the Stanf 20Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
67.0%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
67.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 5 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.3%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (A.T. Hall) to the Stanf 20Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
69.9%
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Innis Gaines return for no gain to the Stanf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:5483% → 95%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
83.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
86.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
89.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-2
91.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 37
-5
95.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:42
JJ Arcega-Whiteside 4 Yd pass from K.J. Costello (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-36.1
TD · Q4 11:49
Desmon White 76 Yd Punt Return (Cole Bunce Kick)
+25.4
TD · Q4 14:34
Jalen Reagor 93 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+23.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com