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UVA

Virginia 7 at Navy 49

NAVY
2017 · Military Bowl · Dec 28, 2017 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:39 · Bennett Moehring 36 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Home team on offense+34.2Score differential+30.9Blowout margin+17.3Garbage-time factor+11.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+18.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+8.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:43: Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +2.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:18: Malcolm Perry 22 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +4.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:12: Malcolm Perry 19 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +8.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:39: Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +11.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:46: Zach Abey 5 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +5.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:10UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:58UVA 4th & 10 at NAVY 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:19NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:14NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:05UVA 4th & 4 at NAVY 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:12NAVY 4th & 1 at UVA 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−1.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:28UVA 4th & 11 at NAVY 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:03NAVY 4th & 9 at UVA 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:57UVA 4th & 4 at NAVY 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:51UVA 4th & 18 at NAVY 32, down 28
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:50NAVY 4th & 3 at UVA 33, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:22UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 37, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:45NAVY 4th & 1 at UVA 14, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:06UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 25, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:39NAVY 4th & 6 at UVA 19, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    100.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:43NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:18NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:12NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:39NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:46NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:57NAVY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:11NAVY Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 2TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:4050% → 52%
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
50.4%
Chris High run for 6 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
50.5%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+5
50.4%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
50.3%
Josh Brown run for 7 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
50.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mandy Alonso) to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
50.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-11
50.3%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Malcolm Cook for a loss of 11 yards to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+28
49.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 28 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
50.3%
Darryl Bonner run for 8 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+2
50.3%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
50.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+8
50.3%
Josh Brown run for 8 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.3%
Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1049% → 48%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
51.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-6
51.3%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Justin Norton for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 24Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 13
OWN 24
0
51.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 13
OWN 24
+7
52.1%
Lester Coleman punt for 38 yds , Craig Scott returns for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:3252% → 58%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
52.4%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
52.6%
Chris High run for 7 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
52.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+16
53.3%
Josh Brown run for 31 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST down, NAVY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Andrew Wood) to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
53.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 5 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
57.5%
Malcolm Perry 22 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:4544% → 42%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
56.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
56.3%
Joe Reed run for 4 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
56.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 7 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+1
55.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+20
56.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 20 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
55.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
55.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
56.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
57.7%
Lester Coleman punt for 45 yds, downed at the Navy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:2658% → 58%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
57.8%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+5
58.0%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 10
-5
57.6%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Andrew Wood) to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+6
57.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
58.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+2
59.1%
John Brown III run for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-1
58.1%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
57.7%
Owen White punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7INT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:4443% → 40%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
57.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for no gain to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
57.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-11
58.4%
Ellis, Jordan rush for 1 yard to the VIRGINIA47, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding 10 yards to the VIRGINIA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 20
OWN 36
0
59.9%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Sean Williams return for no gain to the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4660% → 59%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
59.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
60.0%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 3
OWN 21
-1
59.7%
Darryl Bonner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
59.2%
Owen White punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0042% → 39%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
58.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
57.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
58.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
59.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
58.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+5
59.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
60.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:2863% → 74%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
63.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
64.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+33
64.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 33 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
66.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
66.5%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
66.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
73.7%
Malcolm Perry 19 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0529% → 29%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
71.2%
Kurt Benkert run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 36 Kurt Benkert fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by Navy Tyler SaylesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:0678% → 89%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
78.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+20
78.1%
Chris High run for 20 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
77.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 14 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.2%
Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:4714% → 13%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
85.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+7
84.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 7 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
84.9%
Kurt Benkert run for 1 yd to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+12
85.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 12 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
84.9%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
85.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
86.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+48
87.0%
A.J. Mejia 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
91.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FUMBLE
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:3791% → 93%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
90.8%
Darryl Bonner run for 8 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
91.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
91.9%
Chris High run for 15 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
92.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+1
92.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 1 yd to the Virg 41Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-1
93.1%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 9
OPP 42
-2
92.7%
Owen White punt for 29 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 11 Daniel Hamm fumbled, recovered by Navy Elan NashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:5494% → 99%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
93.6%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+2
93.9%
Josh Brown run for 2 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
98.9%
Zach Abey 5 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
16 plays · 43 yds · 3:451% → 1%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 20 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
98.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 8 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
98.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+3
98.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
98.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+5
98.9%
Kurt Benkert run for 5 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
98.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+14
99.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 14 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
98.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 8 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-15
98.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 17
OPP 31
-1
99.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 18
OPP 32
0
98.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 32 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4399% → 100%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.4%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+39
99.4%
Zach Abey run for 39 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.5%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Brandon ColonSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.5%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+3
99.6%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+6
99.5%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 6 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.6%
Chris High run for 7 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
99.6%
Zach Abey 20 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
99.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 5 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 5
OWN 37
-14
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.7%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+3
99.7%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
99.7%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+1
99.7%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
99.8%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+4
99.8%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.8%
Josh Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 2Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.8%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Joe Reed run for 7 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-3
99.9%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 40 yds, downed at the Navy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22MISSED FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 8:01100% → 100%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
99.9%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+16
99.9%
Garret Lewis run for 16 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
99.9%
Garret Lewis run for 6 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
99.9%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
99.9%
Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.9%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
100.0%
Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
-2
100.0%
Akili Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
100.0%
Bennett Moehring 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:140% → 0%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
100.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 20 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
100.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 12 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:39
Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)
+11.4
TD · Q2 3:12
Malcolm Perry 19 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)
+8.6
TD · Q3 9:46
Zach Abey 5 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com