Try the model
TEX

Texas 33 at Missouri 16

MIZ
2017 · Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl · Dec 27, 2017 · NRG Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFUMBLETDFGSAFETYFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:20 · Michael Dickson punt for 34 yds, downed at the Misso 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense−31.8Score differential−13.1Pregame prior+0.5Garbage-time factor−12.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:58: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to John Burt for 7 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +4.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:10: Ish Witter run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +8.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FUMBLE · Q2 7:47: Ish Witter run for 8 yds Ish Witter fumbled, forced by P.J. Locke III, recovered by Texas Anthony Wheeler , return for 38 yds, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TEX win probability +10.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:42: Johnathon Johnson 79 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — MIZ win probability +10.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 2:44: Tucker McCann 28 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +8.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 9TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 12:00MIZ 4th & 13 at MIZ 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:23TEX 4th & 6 at MIZ 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:44MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 11, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:51TEX 4th & 7 at MIZ 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:17MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 16, down 7
    Close callPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:54MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:34TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:53MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:29TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:46TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:10TEX 4th & 11 at MIZ 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:14MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:59TEX 4th & 18 at MIZ 36, up 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:27TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 46, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:27MIZ 4th & 17 at MIZ 7, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−3.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:17TEX 4th & 8 at midfield, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:44MIZ 4th & 3 at TEX 11, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.9%−1.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−13.6
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:20TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:15TEX 4th & 4 at MIZ 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−9.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:45MIZ 4th & 5 at midfield, down 10
    Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:20TEX 4th & 5 at MIZ 38, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−0.8
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:28TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:58TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:10MIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:42MIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:39TEX Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2740% → 41%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Lorenzo JoeSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.0%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete to Foreman, Armanti, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference (Prewett, Kaleb) 15 yards to the TEXAS40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
60.0%
Daniel Young run for 5 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
59.9%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete to Johnson, Collin, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Acy, DeMarkus) 10 yards to the MISSOURI45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
59.9%
Daniel Young run for 7 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+16
59.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 1 yd to the Misso 37 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Brandon Lee) to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
59.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Daniel Young for 22 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2860% → 59%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
59.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Kevin Pendleton) to the Misso 13Similar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 15
OWN 13
0
59.4%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 13Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 15
OWN 13
0
59.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Albert OkwuegbunamSimilar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 15
OWN 13
+2
59.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 2 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
58.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2741% → 42%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
50
0
58.6%
Jerrod Heard run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
50
+10
58.3%
Shane Buechele run for 10 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
58.2%
Daniel Young run for 4 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
57.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
58.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
58.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 33 yds, downed at the Misso 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3358% → 57%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
58.2%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 6Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+3
58.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Brown for 3 yds to the Misso 9Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 4
OWN 9
-4
57.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Tre'Vour Simms) to the Misso 5Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+6
57.7%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Misso 11Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 2
OWN 11
0
57.1%
Corey Fatony punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4643% → 44%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
56.8%
Reggie Hemphill-Mapps run for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 41Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+13
57.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kendall Moore for 13 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-3
56.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
56.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2657% → 56%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
56.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 4 yds to the Misso 13Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+3
56.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
56.1%
Larry Rountree III run for no gain to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
55.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:1045% → 50%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+42
55.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Daniel Young for 42 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
54.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds to the Misso 4Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 1
OPP 4
-3
54.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 7Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
50.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to John Burt for 7 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4851% → 50%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
51.1%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
50.9%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
50.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Ish WitterSimilar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
50.1%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1050% → 51%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
49.7%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
49.2%
Reggie Hemphill-Mapps run for no gain to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
48.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
49.1%
Michael Dickson punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:3449% → 50%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
49.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 4 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+23
49.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 23 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
49.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Kendall BlantonSimilar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
49.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+4
49.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 4 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
49.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Reggie Hemphill-Mapps at the Texas 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1153% → 53%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-7
47.1%
Shane Buechele sacked by Jordan Harold for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 9Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 17
OWN 9
+4
47.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 4 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
46.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Daniel YoungSimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
46.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:1249% → 54%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
50
+19
48.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 19 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
48.9%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+15
48.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 15 yds to the Texas 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
48.2%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Moore, J'Mon, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Davis, Davante) 7 yards to the TEXAS7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q2 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
48.1%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.1%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
53.5%
TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Naashon Hughes) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1847% → 49%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.6%
Daniel Young run for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
51.8%
Daniel Young run for 6 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
51.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Lorenzo JoeSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
51.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+1
50.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 1 yd to the Texas 45Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
50.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:5252% → 41%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
51.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 5 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+5
51.4%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
51.3%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
51.5%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+38
40.8%
Ish Witter run for 8 yds Ish Witter fumbled, forced by P.J. Locke III, recovered by Texas Anthony Wheeler , return for 38 yds, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:5140% → 41%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
40.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 17 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
41.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
41.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+12
40.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 12 yds Albert Okwuegbunam fumbled, forced by Davante Davis, recovered by Texas Breckyn HagerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2162% → 63%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
37.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 21 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
37.3%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Porter, Kyle for 9 yards to the MISSOURI26, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Kerstetter, Derek) 10 yards to the MISSOURI45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 20
OPP 45
0
36.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 20
OPP 45
0
36.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+9
36.9%
Shane Buechele run for 9 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
37.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4938% → 36%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
37.7%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 4Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 13
OWN 4
0
37.2%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 4Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 13
OWN 4
+1
36.4%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 5Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 12
OWN 5
+18
35.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 41 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for 18 yds to the Misso 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5566% → 68%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-7
33.7%
Daniel Young run for 8 yds to the Misso 20 TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Daniel Young) to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 17
OPP 35
-2
33.4%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 19
OPP 37
+1
31.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 18
OPP 36
0
31.7%
Michael Dickson punt for 33 yds, downed at the Misso 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19END OF HALF
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:4433% → 32%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
33.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 6Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+3
32.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 9Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+15
32.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 15 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
41.2%
Johnathon Johnson 79 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:0761% → 64%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.2%
Daniel Young run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
38.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
38.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 15 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
35.0%
Daniel Young run for no gain to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
34.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 7 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-5
34.7%
Ehlinger, Sam pass complete to Foreman, Armanti for 5 yards to the MISSOURI44, PENALTY TEXAS illegal formation 5 yards to the TEXAS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
34.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin Johnson, broken up by Anthony SherrilsSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
36.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5337% → 34%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
37.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-2
36.7%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 12Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 12
OWN 12
-5
35.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (J'Mon Moore) to the Misso 7Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 17
OWN 7
0
34.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 17
OWN 7
+11
33.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 56 yds , Reggie Hemphill-Mapps returns for 11 yds to the Texas 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0267% → 67%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
33.2%
Daniel Young run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
35.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Daniel Young for no gain to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+7
34.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 8
50
0
32.8%
Michael Dickson punt for 48 yds, downed at the Misso 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24FG
16 plays · 87 yds · 5:2634% → 41%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
33.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 8 yds to the Misso 10Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+5
34.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
34.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 2 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+10
33.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 10 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
34.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 4 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
34.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dominic Collins, broken up by Davante DavisSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+25
33.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 25 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
38.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
35.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Kris BoydSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+8
34.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 8 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
36.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Richaud FloydSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
36.1%
Ish Witter run for 15 yds to the Texas 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
36.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dominic CollinsSimilar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
36.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+4
33.1%
Drew Lock run for 4 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
41.2%
Tucker McCann 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1662% → 63%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
38.2%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
34.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
36.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26SF
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0538% → 34%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
37.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Kendall Blanton, broken up by Gary JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-10
33.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:3972% → 79%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
27.7%
Daniel Young run for 9 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+1
26.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
25.9%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Jordan Harold for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 49Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+5
24.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 5 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+15
23.8%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Joe, Lorenzo, PENALTY MISSOURI roughing passer (Acy, DeMarkus) 15 yards to the MISSOURI29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
22.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
21.8%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
22.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reggie Hemphill-MappsSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
21.1%
Joshua Rowland 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1221% → 20%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
20.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 16 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
22.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dominic CollinsSimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
21.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 5
50
0
21.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Larry Rountree IIISimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 5
50
0
20.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29PUNT
13 plays · 42 yds · 7:1881% → 92%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.7%
Daniel Young run for no gain to the Texas 20Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
16.6%
Daniel Young run for 5 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
16.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kyle Porter for 10 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
14.9%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+13
15.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 13 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
13.3%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
11.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
11.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 41Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+16
11.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 16 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
9.5%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
8.9%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-3
8.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
7.7%
Michael Dickson punt for 34 yds, downed at the Misso 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 30INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:058% → 8%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
7.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Kevin Pendleton) to the Misso 2Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 12
OWN 2
0
7.6%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Davante Davis return for no gain to the Misso 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 31TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3693% → 98%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-15
6.8%
TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
6.8%
Kyle Porter run for 7 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
5.8%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
5.8%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
1.5%
Armanti Foreman run for 18 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
1.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (Walter Palmore) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 32FUMBLE
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:162% → 2%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
1.8%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Witter, Ish, PENALTY TEXAS personal foul (Wheeler, Anthony) 15 yards to the MISSOURI40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
1.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 23 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
2.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
2.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dominic Collins for 13 yds to the Texas 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
2.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dominic CollinsSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-4
2.2%
Drew Lock sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 28 Drew Lock fumbled, forced by Charles Omenihu, recovered by Texas Edwin Freeman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q2 7:47
Ish Witter run for 8 yds Ish Witter fumbled, forced by P.J. Locke III, recovered by Texas Anthony Wheeler , return for 38 yds, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q3 14:42
Johnathon Johnson 79 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+10.1
FG · Q3 2:44
Tucker McCann 28 yd FG GOOD
+8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com