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USM

Southern Miss 13 at Florida State 42

FSU
2017 · Walk-On's Independence Bowl · Dec 27, 2017 · Independence Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+1FSU 99.7%Auden Tate 17 Yd pass from CarlosBecker III (Two-Point Run ConversionFailed)AWAY 13 - HOME 39 · Q4 13:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:34 · Auden Tate 17 Yd pass from Carlos Becker III (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+8.5Home team on offense+34.3Score differential+18.6Garbage-time factor+12.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.7Blowout margin+10.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:38: James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 14 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo PAT MISSED) — FSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:33: James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 10 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:45: Ricky Aguayo 39 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:25: Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:44: Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 13 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +2.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 2:37USM 4th & 6 at FSU 43, down 1
    Close callPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:39USM 4th & 5 at USM 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:48FSU 4th & 6 at USM 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:50USM 4th & 2 at USM 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:26FSU 4th & 9 at USM 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    81.2%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02USM 4th & 5 at USM 44, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:45FSU 4th & 10 at USM 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:10USM 4th & 8 at USM 20, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:05USM 4th & 13 at USM 42, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:26USM 4th & 2 at USM 40, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:24FSU 4th & 5 at USM 30, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:32FSU 4th & 7 at USM 22, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:40USM 4th & 2 at USM 24, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:05USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:20FSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:38FSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:33FSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:25FSU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:44USM Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:34FSU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:5516% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
83.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
83.6%
Allenzae Staggers run for 4 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-2
83.4%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-1
83.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Tez Parks for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+15
83.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
82.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+33
82.8%
Ito Smith run for 33 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
82.6%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for no gain to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:4582% → 82%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
82.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
82.0%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
81.6%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
81.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 11 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
81.5%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
81.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+5
81.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 6
50
+5
81.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
81.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
81.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+2
80.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+13
80.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 13 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
80.7%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
82.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 20 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1519% → 20%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
80.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 1 yd to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+14
80.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 14 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
80.1%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+8
80.4%
Kwadra Griggs run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
79.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Jaylond AdamsSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
80.2%
Zac Everett punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:4981% → 84%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
80.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
80.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 9 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
80.5%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+8
81.0%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
81.0%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+16
81.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 16 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
81.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 26 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
81.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 12Similar
Q2 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+8
81.2%
James Blackman run for 8 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
81.1%
Patrick, Jacques rush for 2 yards to the SOUMISS2, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 10 yards to the SOUMISS14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
83.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 14 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3818% → 17%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
82.4%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+10
82.4%
Kwadra Griggs run for 10 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
82.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
82.3%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
82.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
82.6%
Zac Everett punt for 33 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3583% → 84%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
82.7%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+12
82.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 12 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
83.5%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+32
83.6%
Cam Akers run for 32 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
83.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
84.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
83.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
84.3%
Ricky Aguayo 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3716% → 15%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
84.2%
Kwadra Griggs run for 1 yd to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+7
84.3%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 2
OWN 21
0
84.4%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
84.8%
Zac Everett punt for 46 yds, downed at the FlaSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:0384% → 85%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
84.4%
James Blackman run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
85.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
84.9%
Blackman, James pass incomplete to Gavin, Keith, PENALTY SOUMISS pass interference 15 yards to the SOUMISS39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.3%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
85.2%
James Blackman run for 1 yd to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
84.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
84.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:1816% → 15%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
84.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+4
85.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 4 yds Ito Smith fumbled, forced by Stanford Samuels III, recovered by FlaSt A.J. WestbrookSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:1486% → 93%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
86.3%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
86.4%
James Blackman run for 2 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+6
85.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 6 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
92.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 10 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11END OF HALF
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:1910% → 7%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.3%
Jaylond Adams run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
90.4%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
90.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 10 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
89.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
92.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
92.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+17
92.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 17 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:0991% → 96%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
90.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
91.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
50
+2
91.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
91.3%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 4 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
91.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 5 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
92.2%
Cam Akers run for 17 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
92.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
92.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
93.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
96.3%
Ricky Aguayo 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 2:284% → 4%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
95.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
95.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
96.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+25
96.3%
Zac Everett pass complete to Allen Fails for 25 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-3
96.0%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
96.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
96.3%
Zac Everett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 4:2997% → 100%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
96.8%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+27
96.9%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 27 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
97.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 21 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
97.1%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+14
97.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 14 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
97.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 10 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
97.1%
Gabe Nabers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
97.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 8 yds to the SoMis 2Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:260% → 3%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.7%
Ito Smith run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 2 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
99.7%
Kwadra Griggs run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+18
99.8%
Allenzae Staggers pass complete to Kwadra Griggs for 18 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
99.7%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
97.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 13 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:3398% → 100%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
98.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 6 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+4
98.4%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
98.4%
James Blackman run for 2 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+1
98.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+17
99.7%
Auden Tate 17 Yd pass from Carlos Becker III (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
99.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 8 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
99.6%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-1
99.6%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 2
OWN 40
-5
99.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
99.7%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
99.7%
J.J. Cosentino pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+5
99.7%
J.J. Cosentino pass complete to Amir Rasul for 5 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.8%
Amir Rasul run for 3 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Amir Rasul run for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
99.8%
J.J. Cosentino pass incomplete to Justin MotlowSimilar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
99.9%
Ricky Aguayo 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 3 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 7
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 7
OWN 8
-4
99.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+12
99.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 12 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 5 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 1
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 1 yd to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20END OF GAME
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:48100% → 100%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Amir Rasul run for 3 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-1
99.9%
Amir Rasul run for 9 yds to the SoMis 13 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
99.9%
Amir Rasul run for 7 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
100.0%
J.J. Cosentino run for 2 yds to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
100.0%
Amir Rasul run for 2 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+1
100.0%
Amir Rasul run for 1 yd to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+6
100.0%
Colton Plante run for 6 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:33
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 10 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+6.8
FG · Q3 10:45
Ricky Aguayo 39 yd FG GOOD
+3
TD · Q2 12:38
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 14 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo PAT MISSED)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com