Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 35 at UCLA 17

UCLA
2017 · Cactus Bowl · Dec 26, 2017 · Chase Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:56 · Stefan Flintoft punt for 43 yds , D.J. Reed returns for no gain to the KanSt 7 D.J. Reed fumbled, recovered by KanSt D.J. Reed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense+7.3Pregame prior−7.6Score differential+1.1Garbage-time factor+2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Alex Delton 68 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick) — KSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:25: Theo Howard 70 Yd pass from Devon Modster (JJ Molson Kick) — UCLA win probability +7.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:39: Alex Delton 1 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick) — KSU win probability +18.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:22: Dominique Heath 8 Yd pass from Alex Delton (Matthew McCrane Kick) — KSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:01: Alex Barnes 41 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick) — KSU win probability +15.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:21KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:55UCLA 4th & 6 at KSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:17UCLA 4th & 1 at KSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:00UCLA 4th & 5 at KSU 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.8%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:11KSU 4th & 11 at KSU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:13KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:56UCLA 4th & 6 at midfield, up 10
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:49UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.3%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:19UCLA 4th & 11 at UCLA 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:39KSU 4th & 1 at UCLA 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−4.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−16.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:07UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.1%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:09UCLA 4th & 6 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.6%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:01KSU 4th & 1 at UCLA 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−7.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−6.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:40UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 29, down 11
    Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:24UCLA 4th & 19 at UCLA 34, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 0:00KSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:34UCLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:25UCLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:39KSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:22KSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:01KSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:34KSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:2663% → 62%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
37.3%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
37.3%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-15
37.7%
Thompson, Skylar pass complete to Zuber, Isaiah for 8 yards to the KANSASST43, PENALTY KANSASST pass interference (Pringle, Byron) 15 yards to the KANSASST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+8
37.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Byron Pringle for 8 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
38.0%
Nick Walsh punt for 36 yds, downed at the UCLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2238% → 39%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
38.0%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
38.0%
Demetric Felton run for 11 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
38.4%
Demetric Felton run for 4 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
38.7%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
38.7%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
38.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3INT
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:3761% → 60%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
38.6%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 5Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+27
38.9%
Alex Barnes run for 27 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
38.9%
Skylar Thompson run for 4 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
38.9%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
39.0%
Winston Dimel run for 2 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
39.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Dominique Heath for 18 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
39.2%
Skylar Thompson run for 4 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
38.9%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Zach ReuterSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-5
39.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Kaltmayer) to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
39.6%
Skylar Thompson pass intercepted Darnay Holmes return for no gain to the UCLA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 6:0340% → 44%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
40.4%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 4 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-5
40.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+18
40.4%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 18 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
42.0%
Devon Modster pass complete to Christian Pabico for 11 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
42.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-1
42.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-5
42.6%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Jordan Wilson) to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+10
42.3%
Devon Modster run for 10 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
42.0%
Demetric Felton run for 2 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
43.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 31Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-3
43.5%
Kolton Miller run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+9
42.5%
Devon Modster run for 9 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+44
43.8%
JJ Molson 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:3756% → 61%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
44.0%
Justin Silmon run for 8 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+68
39.0%
Alex Delton 68 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+15
39.0%
UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Nate Meadors) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:0940% → 46%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
39.6%
Brandon Stephens run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 11
OWN 13
-6
39.5%
Modster, Devon pass complete to Lasley, Jordan for 4 yards to the UCLA17, PENALTY UCLA illegal block (Miller, Kolton) 6 yards to the UCLA7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 17
OWN 7
+16
39.5%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 16 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+6
39.4%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 6 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
40.1%
Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 9 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+3
41.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
41.6%
Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 7 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
42.1%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+52
46.4%
Jordan Lasley 52 Yd pass from Devon Modster (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5854% → 52%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
45.8%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Justin Silmon for 1 yd to the KanSt 30Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
46.1%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete, broken up by Jacob Tuioti-MarinerSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-2
47.2%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Boss Tagaloa for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 28Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
48.2%
Nick Walsh punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:3446% → 54%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
46.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+70
53.9%
Theo Howard 70 Yd pass from Devon Modster (JJ Molson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0245% → 41%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
54.8%
Dalvin Warmack run for 3 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
55.2%
Skylar Thompson run for no gain to the KanSt 39Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-2
56.7%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Jacob Tuioti-Mariner for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 37Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
58.8%
Nick Walsh punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Theo Howard at the UCLA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0957% → 58%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
56.5%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 18 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
57.1%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+10
58.3%
Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 10 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
59.8%
Devon Modster pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
59.4%
Demetric Felton run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 6
50
0
59.5%
Devon Modster pass incomplete, broken up by Bronson MassieSimilar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 6
50
0
58.4%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 43 yds , D.J. Reed returns for no gain to the KanSt 7 D.J. Reed fumbled, recovered by KanSt D.J. ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11END OF HALF
14 plays · 42 yds · 4:2239% → 35%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
60.8%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the KanSt 12Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+11
61.2%
Alex Delton run for 11 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
61.4%
Alex Delton run for 3 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
64.8%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber, broken up by Kenny YoungSimilar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+12
65.8%
Alex Delton run for 12 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
64.2%
Alex Delton run for 9 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-1
62.1%
Alex Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
63.2%
Alex Delton run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
50
0
63.1%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
50
+1
64.2%
Alex Delton pass complete to Alex Barnes for 1 yd to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-2
64.6%
Alex Delton sacked by Jacob Tuioti-Mariner for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 3:2265% → 68%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
65.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 9 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+11
66.3%
Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 11 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
67.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
68.0%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
68.0%
Brandon Stephens run for no gain to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+2
67.0%
Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 2 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.8%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
69.5%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
68.8%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
67.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:3232% → 46%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
68.1%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+37
68.4%
Isaiah Zuber run for 37 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
65.8%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dominique Heath for 10 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
65.7%
Alex Barnes run for 20 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
66.3%
Alex Delton run for 3 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
66.8%
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.7%
Winston Dimel run for no gain to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.4%
Alex Delton 1 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
58.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 24 Bolu Olorunfunmi fumbled, forced by Denzel Goolsby, recovered by KanSt Denzel GoolsbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:5449% → 68%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
51.0%
Alex Delton run for 11 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
51.2%
Alex Delton run for 2 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
51.1%
Alex Delton run for 3 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
32.3%
Dominique Heath 8 Yd pass from Alex Delton (Matthew McCrane Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:0440% → 38%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
40.0%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
39.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 8 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
39.3%
Soso Jamabo run for no gain to the UCLA 35Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+11
37.2%
Mique Juarez run for 11 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.6%
Christian Pabico run for no gain to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
39.8%
Devon Modster pass incomplete, broken up by Trey DishonSimilar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+4
38.4%
Devon Modster pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 6
50
0
38.4%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:0169% → 84%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
50
-3
30.8%
Winston Dimel run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 47Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+9
32.0%
Alex Delton pass complete to Winston Dimel for 9 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
30.6%
Alex Delton run for 3 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+41
16.3%
Alex Barnes 41 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0119% → 17%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
18.8%
Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
18.9%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 3 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
18.2%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Christian PabicoSimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 2
OWN 29
-4
17.4%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 65 yds , D.J. Reed returns for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19TD
18 plays · 98 yds · 7:5685% → 99%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
15.3%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the KanSt 3Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+7
15.2%
Alex Delton run for 7 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+3
11.6%
Alex Delton run for 3 yds to the KanSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
10.7%
Alex Delton run for 7 yds to the KanSt 20Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+5
10.2%
Alex Delton run for 5 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
9.5%
Alex Barnes run for 8 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
8.7%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
8.0%
Alex Delton pass complete to Byron Pringle for 11 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
7.1%
Alex Delton pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
7.0%
Justin Silmon run for 5 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+5
6.9%
UCLA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
6.2%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dominique Heath for 7 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+15
5.8%
UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Lasley) to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
5.7%
Alex Delton run for 1 yd to the UCLA 20Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+13
5.2%
Alex Delton pass complete to Dominique Heath for 6 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Jaleel Wadood) to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
5.1%
Alex Delton run for 4 yds to the UCLA 3Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.8%
Alex Delton 3 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:042% → 2%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.3%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
2.3%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 18 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
2.2%
Modster, Devon rush for 7 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY UCLA holding (Tagaloa, Boss) 10 yards to the UCLA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+6
2.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 6 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+5
2.2%
Devon Modster pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
2.1%
Devon Modster pass incomplete to Jordan WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 9
OWN 44
-10
2.1%
Modster, Devon pass complete to Lasley, Jordan for 11 yards to the KANSASST45, PENALTY UCLA holding (Toran, Najee) 10 yards to the UCLA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 19
OWN 34
+9
2.0%
Devon Modster pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 9 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3199% → 99%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
0.7%
Mike McCoy run for 8 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
0.5%
Mike McCoy run for no gain to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
0.7%
Tyler Burns run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
0.7%
Tyler Burns run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:22
Dominique Heath 8 Yd pass from Alex Delton (Matthew McCrane Kick)
-18.8
TD · Q3 6:39
Alex Delton 1 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick)
-18.1
TD · Q4 14:01
Alex Barnes 41 Yd Run (Matthew McCrane Kick)
-15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com