2017 · Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl · Dec 26, 2017 · Cotton Bowl
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:15 · Matt Gay 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 13:09: Evan Staley 28 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +2.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:46: Tyler Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +6.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:08: Matt Gay 29 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +4.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:43: Evan Staley 26 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +3.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:59: Tyler Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK) — UTAH win probability +12.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 12 of 12UTAH made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 13:25WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snapGo for it35.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.4%average punt
- Q1 10:27WVU 4th & 15 at WVU 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.5%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q1 6:47UTAH 4th & 18 at UTAH 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snapGo for it64.7%−0.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%average punt
- Q1 4:52WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%average punt
- Q1 2:38UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 34, up 7Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snapGo for it65.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:30WVU 4th & 3 at UTAH 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.8%53% to convertField goal34.8%−0.945% to makePunt34.3%−1.4average punt
- Q2 13:09WVU 4th & 5 at UTAH 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snapGo for it35.0%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call35.1%87% to makePunt30.2%−5.0average punt
- Q2 11:31UTAH 4th & 21 at UTAH 27, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snapGo for it58.7%−2.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.7%average punt
- Q2 10:05WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 47, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snapGo for it37.4%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.1%average punt
- Q2 7:05UTAH 4th & 14 at UTAH 29, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snapGo for it59.0%−1.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.7%average punt
- Q2 4:20WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 20, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snapGo for it25.9%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.4%average punt
- Q2 1:08UTAH 4th & 10 at WVU 11, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snapGo for it73.1%−0.824% to convertField goalTheir call73.9%87% to makePunt69.8%−4.1average punt
- Q2 0:00WVU 4th & 9 at WVU 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it18.9%−1.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.0%average punt
- Q3 11:21UTAH 4th & 15 at UTAH 39, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snapGo for it78.8%−2.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q3 9:46WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snapGo for it18.4%−0.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.0%average punt
- Q3 7:45UTAH 4th & 12 at UTAH 23, up 14Numbers favored punt by 2.7 ptsWent for it · 82.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.7%−2.722% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt84.4%average punt
- Q3 6:43WVU 4th & 9 at UTAH 9, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snapGo for it17.6%−0.925% to convertField goalTheir call18.5%89% to makePunt12.7%−5.8average punt
- Q3 3:03UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 35, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.8%−0.940% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.7%average punt
- Q3 1:34WVU 4th & 20 at WVU 10, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it15.6%−2.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.2%average punt
- Q4 14:47UTAH 4th & 3 at WVU 7, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.3%46% to convertField goal80.4%−0.991% to makePunt72.8%−8.5average punt
- Q4 11:38UTAH 4th & 3 at WVU 8, up 18Close callKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.5%47% to convertField goalTheir call94.9%−0.690% to makePunt91.1%−4.4average punt
- Q4 10:43WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 36, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q4 6:15UTAH 4th & 1 at WVU 17, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.6%71% to convertField goal98.2%−0.480% to makePunt97.1%−1.5average punt
- Q4 4:15UTAH 4th & 6 at WVU 6, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%91% to makePunt98.1%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:37UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.6%97% to makeGo for two64.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:46UTAH Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.0%97% to makeGo for two70.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:59UTAH Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 1:58WVU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick1.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.7%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2530% → 31%
Q1 13:25
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+4
30.8%
Billy Kinney punt for 45 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 4 yds to the Utah 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2TD4 plays · 83 yds · 1:4369% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5531% → 31%
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
50
-5
30.9%
Kennedy McKoy pass complete to Marcus Simms for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4PUNT12 plays · 44 yds · 3:3369% → 69%
Q1 9:40
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+10
31.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 10 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
30.8%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 10 yds to the Utah 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+23
30.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 23 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
30.1%
Zack Moss run for 2 yds to the Utah 42 UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Agasiva) to the Utah 48Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 18
OWN 48
0
31.0%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4331% → 31%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
31.1%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 7 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-9
31.5%
Chris Chugunov sacked by Lowell Lotulelei for a loss of 9 yards to the WVirg 25Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-1
30.7%
Chris Chugunov sacked by Lowell Lotulelei and Kavika Luafatasaga for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 24Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
30.5%
Billy Kinney punt for 51 yds , Philip Afia returns for no gain to the Utah 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1269% → 69%
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.0%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 9 yds to the Utah 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7FG11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1731% → 36%
Q1 1:30
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+33
30.6%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Marcus Simms for 33 yds to the Utah 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
32.6%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Marcus Simms for 5 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+1
32.7%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 1 yd to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+19
31.9%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Gary Jennings for 19 yds to the Utah 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2466% → 64%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
34.3%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 11 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-11
34.6%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Xavier Preston and Kyzir White for a loss of 11 yards to the Utah 27Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 21
OWN 27
0
36.1%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marcus Simms at the WVirg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2035% → 35%
UTAHDrive 10FUMBLE6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5565% → 64%
Q2 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+16
35.2%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 16 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-2
33.9%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Troy McCormick Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-7
34.5%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Kyzir White for a loss of 7 yards to the Utah 29Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 14
OWN 29
-7
36.3%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 51 yds , Marcus Simms returns for a loss of 7 yards to the WVirg 13 Marcus Simms fumbled, recovered by Utah Cody BartonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11TD3 plays · 13 yds · 1:0968% → 75%
WVUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1026% → 24%
UTAHDrive 13FG11 plays · 56 yds · 2:5274% → 81%
Q2 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
25.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 11 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
24.7%
Tyler Huntley sacked by Dylan Tonkery for a loss of 6 yards to the Utah 40Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
50
+39
24.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 39 yds to the WVirg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5920% → 19%
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+23
19.0%
Billy Kinney punt for 50 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 23 yds to the Utah 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 3:0980% → 82%
WVUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2919% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17FUMBLE4 plays · -15 yds · 1:5584% → 84%
Q3 9:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
15.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 6 yds to the Utah 27Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
15.7%
Tyler Huntley sacked by David Long Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 23Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-13
15.8%
Mitch Wishnowsky run for a loss of 13 yards to the Utah 9 Mitch Wishnowsky fumbled, recovered by WVirg Shane CommodoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2719% → 22%
Q3 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
19.1%
Chris Chugunov pass incomplete to Gary Jennings, broken up by Javelin GuidrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 3:3079% → 79%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
21.1%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Darren Carrington II, broken up by Al-Rasheed BentonSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-7
20.0%
Tyler Huntley sacked by David Long Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Utah 27Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 19
OWN 22
+13
21.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 13 yds to the Utah 35Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
21.4%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Simms at the WVirg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2121% → 18%
Q3 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-10
18.8%
Chugunov, Chris pass complete to Simms, Marcus for 20 yards to the WESTVIR40, PENALTY WESTVIR unnecessary roughness (Sills, Josh) 10 yards to the WESTVIR10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+19
18.0%
Billy Kinney punt for 48 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 19 yds to the WVirg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21TD10 plays · 39 yds · 2:1682% → 96%
Q4 14:50
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+5
18.0%
Wishnowsky, Mitch punt 12 yards to the WESTVIR25, out-of-bounds, PENALTY WESTVIR offside (Kamara, Osman) 5 yards to the WESTVIR32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+15
18.4%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 25 yds to the WVirg 7 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Raelon Singleton) to the WVirg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+11
15.9%
Huntley, Tyler pass incomplete to Simpkins, Demari (Battle, Elijah), PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference (Battle, Elijah) 11 yards to the WESTVIR2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22FUMBLE3 plays · -1 yds · 0:146% → 6%
UTAHDrive 23FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2296% → 98%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
3.7%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Jake Jackson for 4 yds to the WVirg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:423% → 3%
Q4 10:43
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+28
2.5%
Billy Kinney punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Boobie Hobbs at the WESTVIR 21 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike Daniels Jr.) to the Utah 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 25FUMBLE4 plays · 30 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q4 8:28
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-4
1.0%
Tyler Huntley run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 34 Tyler Huntley fumbled, recovered by WVirg Adam Shuler IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 26INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
2.2%
Chris Chugunov pass intercepted Julian Blackmon return for 24 yds to the WVirg 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 27FG10 plays · 20 yds · 3:5299% → 100%
Q4 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.4%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Darren Carrington II, broken up by Hakeem BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 28TD6 plays · 67 yds · 2:021% → 3%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+38
0.8%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Gary Jennings for 38 yds to the Utah 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
3.2%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 18 yds for a TD, (Kennedy McKoy pass to Trevon Wesco for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 29INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
2.5%
Chris Chugunov pass intercepted Julian Blackmon return for no gain to the Utah 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 30END OF GAME3 plays · 2 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:59
Tyler Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q2 5:46
Tyler Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Gay KICK)
-6.8
FG · Q2 1:08
Matt Gay 29 yd FG GOOD
-4.5