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DUKE

Duke 36 at Northern Illinois 14

NIU
2017 · Quick Lane Bowl · Dec 26, 2017 · Ford Field
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:21: Tre Harbison run for 25 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +6.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:22: Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 67 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +6.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:09: Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 33 yds for a TD, (William Holmquist PAT MISSED) — DUKE win probability +7.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:33: Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Jones intercepted ) — DUKE win probability +5.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:58: Brittain Brown run for 7 yds for a TD, (William Holmquist KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 14:06NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14DUKE 4th & 10 at NIU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:28NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:00DUKE 4th & 1 at NIU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:32NIU 4th & 18 at NIU 11, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:36NIU 4th & 3 at DUKE 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−1.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:49DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:59DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:23DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:02NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:05NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:50NIU 4th & 14 at DUKE 22, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    24.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:16NIU 4th & 3 at DUKE 33, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−1.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:31DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 46, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:15NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 27, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:55DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 39, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.9%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:37DUKE 4th & 3 at NIU 6, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−3.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:35NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 49, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:00DUKE 4th & 10 at NIU 10, up 22
    Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:14NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 38, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:00DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:17DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:21NIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:22NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:09DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:58DUKE Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3431% → 31%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
30.7%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
30.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Daniel CrawfordSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
30.9%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
30.9%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:4669% → 68%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
31.0%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+1
31.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+12
31.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 12 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
31.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+9
31.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 9 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
31.6%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
31.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
32.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
32.3%
William Holmquist punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Embry at the NoIll 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3232% → 33%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
32.3%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+2
32.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 2 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+5
32.6%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 3
OWN 16
+3
32.7%
Matt Ference punt for 45 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 3 yds to the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:1067% → 69%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
32.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+12
32.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 12 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
32.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
32.8%
Brittain Brown run for 9 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
32.9%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
32.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 20 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
32.8%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
32.9%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the NoIll 2Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
33.4%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 1Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.9%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (William Holmquist KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1531% → 31%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
31.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
31.4%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-9
31.1%
Marcus Childers sacked by Trevon McSwain for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 11Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 18
OWN 11
0
30.9%
Matt Ference pass incomplete to Trayshon FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:1070% → 73%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
30.3%
Jones, Daniel rush for 6 yards to the NORTHERNIL5, PENALTY NORTHERNIL offside (Johnson, Jawuan) 6 yards to the NORTHERNIL5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 4
OPP 5
+2
30.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
30.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (William Holmquist KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:2427% → 28%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
27.3%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+14
27.3%
Marcus Childers run for 14 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
27.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 20 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
28.3%
Christian Blake pass incomplete to Daniel CrawfordSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
28.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tre Harbison for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
28.1%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-1
27.9%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4374% → 74%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
25.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
25.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
25.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Brittain BrownSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
26.1%
William Holmquist punt for 24 yds, downed at the NoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:1927% → 34%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+43
27.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 43 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
33.8%
Tre Harbison run for 25 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0669% → 68%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
31.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 30
0
30.6%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
31.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+6
31.9%
William Holmquist punt for 45 yds , Jalen Embry returns for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:2332% → 39%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
32.0%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+67
38.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 67 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5263% → 61%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
37.5%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
37.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 2 yards Shaun Wilson fumbled, forced by Jawuan Johnson, recovered by Duke Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+11
38.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 11 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
38.8%
William Holmquist punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0841% → 40%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
41.3%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-2
42.0%
Spencer Tears run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
40.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
39.9%
Matt Ference punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:4161% → 71%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
38.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 17 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
38.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
36.3%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
36.5%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
36.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
36.8%
Brittain Brown run for 7 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+12
36.6%
Daniel Jones run for 12 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
29.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 33 yds for a TD, (William Holmquist PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5033% → 30%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
32.7%
Christian Blake run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+3
32.6%
Marcus Jones run for 3 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+6
30.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 6 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
30.0%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:2271% → 79%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
29.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+22
28.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 22 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
27.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+7
27.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
27.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 11 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
26.5%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
21.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Jones intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17END OF HALF
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:2524% → 24%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
24.2%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+3
24.5%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+3
24.9%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
24.3%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
23.7%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:0276% → 79%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
24.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Trevon LeeSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+31
23.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 31 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
22.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+16
22.5%
Daniel Jones run for 16 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
21.3%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NoIll 29 Daniel Jones fumbled, forced by Jawuan Johnson, recovered by NoIll Devin WebsterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:5024% → 22%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
23.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 8 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
24.1%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+42
23.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 42 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
25.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
25.5%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the Duke 17Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 9
OPP 17
-5
24.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 14
OPP 22
-11
21.9%
Josh Orne run for a loss of 11 yards to the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:4279% → 93%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
20.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 5 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
19.8%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+8
20.0%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
18.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+14
18.8%
Daniel Jones run for 14 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
18.6%
Daniel Jones run for 16 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
18.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 1 yd to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
17.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+11
18.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 11 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
17.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 2 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
6.7%
Brittain Brown run for 7 yds for a TD, (William Holmquist KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:2813% → 13%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
13.1%
Childers, Marcus pass incomplete to Tears, Spencer, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Gilbert, Mark) 15 yards to the DUKE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL.Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
13.4%
Christian Blake run for 1 yd to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+7
13.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-1
13.5%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
12.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Daniel CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4193% → 95%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
6.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
5.7%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+9
5.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 9 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
5.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
5.1%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
4.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
4.9%
William Holmquist punt for 48 yds, downed at the NoIll 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:008% → 7%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
8.1%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+15
8.0%
Childers, Marcus pass incomplete to Tears, Spencer, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Fields Jr., Bryon) 15 yards to the NORTHERNIL24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL.Similar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
8.3%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Illegal Touching (Christian Blake) to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
8.0%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-5
7.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (Nathan Veloz) to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+5
7.7%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
7.4%
Matt Ference punt for 43 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 7:2396% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
4.0%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+6
4.0%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+4
3.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 13:55
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+2
3.9%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
3.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 6 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
3.4%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+8
3.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
3.2%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+14
2.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 14 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
2.8%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the NoIll 28Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
2.7%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the NoIll 28Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+15
2.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 15 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
2.4%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 13Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
2.3%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+3
2.3%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
1.4%
William Holmquist 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:452% → 1%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
1.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 18 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
1.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 4 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
1.3%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
1.3%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Daniel CrawfordSimilar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 6
OWN 49
-9
1.3%
Marcus Childers sacked by Derrick Tangelo for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 21 yds · 4:2899% → 100%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
1.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 20 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
0.9%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
0.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 1 yd to the NoIll 16Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+6
0.8%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
0.8%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
0.6%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 8Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
0.4%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 10Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
-9
0.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Bobby Jones IV for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:421% → 1%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
0.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 5 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+12
0.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 12 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Christian Blake for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
0.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
0.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
0.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
0.3%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:58
Brittain Brown run for 7 yds for a TD, (William Holmquist KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q2 6:09
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 33 yds for a TD, (William Holmquist PAT MISSED)
-7.5
TD · Q2 12:22
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 67 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com