Try the model
APP

App State 34 at Toledo 0

TOL
2017 · Dollar General Bowl · Dec 23, 2017 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:12 · Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense−31.5Score differential−14.6Pregame prior+7.2Garbage-time factor−5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:51: Jalin Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +6.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:52: Chandler Staton 23 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +6.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:38: Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 19 — APP win probability +11.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:13: Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the AppSt 48 — APP win probability +7.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:14: Jalin Moore run for 31 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +6.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 11:42APP 4th & 2 at APP 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:57TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:33APP 4th & 16 at APP 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:14TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:05TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:09APP 4th & 2 at TOL 12, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%−1.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−8.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:52APP 4th & 2 at TOL 6, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%−1.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−11.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:08TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.3%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:38TOL 4th & 14 at APP 39, down 20
    Close callPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:12APP 4th & 1 at APP 48, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.4%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:22TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 26, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:29APP 4th & 3 at APP 37, up 27
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:24TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 13, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:44TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 36, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:07APP 4th & 3 at TOL 31, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:04APP 4th & 6 at TOL 17, up 34
    Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:28TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 19, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:06APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:51APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:14APP Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:54APP Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1233% → 33%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
67.2%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+12
67.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 12 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
67.0%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
66.9%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-1
66.7%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
66.8%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 37 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for no gain to the Toled 17 Danzel McKinley-Lewis fumbled, recovered by Toled Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:4567% → 66%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
66.9%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+14
66.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 14 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
66.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 4 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
66.9%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+9
66.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 9 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
67.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Diontae Johnson) to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
66.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
66.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Terry SwansonSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-5
66.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Sami Kassem) to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+8
66.2%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
66.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:2434% → 34%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
66.2%
Ike Lewis run for 10 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
66.0%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-5
65.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Beau Nunn) to the AppSt 28Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+1
66.0%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
66.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike LewisSimilar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 11
OWN 29
-5
66.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Austin Exford) to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+5
66.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 43 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 5 yds to the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
66.3%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Anthony Flory return for 19 yds to the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:1335% → 40%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
64.9%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
64.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike LewisSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+15
64.8%
Jalin Moore run for 15 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
64.2%
Jalin Moore run for 10 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
60.5%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5262% → 60%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
61.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-3
61.4%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 13Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+4
60.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 4 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
59.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:2340% → 50%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
59.9%
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-10
58.8%
Lamb, Taylor rush for 7 yards to the TOLEDO48, PENALTY APPALCHAN holding (Duffield, Levi) 10 yards to the APPALCHAN35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+16
59.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 16 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
58.1%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
57.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+8
57.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 8 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
57.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 23 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
57.1%
Jalin Moore run for 6 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
50.3%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4653% → 50%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jordan FisherSimilar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
52.3%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
49.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 40 yds, downed at the AppSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:5651% → 60%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
49.2%
Taylor Lamb run for 8 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+6
47.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 6 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
46.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 35 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
46.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+4
44.7%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
44.2%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the Toled 12Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+29
40.2%
Chandler Staton 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0262% → 70%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
38.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 15Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+7
37.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Collin Reed for 7 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+2
35.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 2 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
29.8%
Chandler Staton 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
15 plays · 36 yds · 4:1434% → 34%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
34.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
33.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Terry SwansonSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
32.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Diontae Johnson) to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+20
32.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jordan Fisher for 20 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
33.5%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
32.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+3
32.3%
Logan Woodside run for 3 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+18
30.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 18 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
31.3%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
31.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Darryl RichardsSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-4
36.7%
Logan Woodside sacked by Caleb Fuller for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
33.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 21 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 74 yds · 1:3878% → 79%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
22.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 19Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+19
21.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 19 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike LewisSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
20.3%
Taylor Lamb run for 10 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
19.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 29 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
21.5%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Hennigan, Thomas, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Mathis, Trevon) 15 yards to the TOLEDO8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APPALCHAN.Similar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
21.1%
Malik Williams pass incomplete to Taylor LambSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 0
OPP 8
+25
20.8%
Chandler Staton 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13INT
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:4727% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.0%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+24
26.9%
Terry Swanson run for 24 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
30.6%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
30.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 8 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
27.3%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+35
24.4%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Desmond Franklin return for 35 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:5983% → 94%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
17.1%
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
14.4%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
15.3%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
15.0%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
50
+3
12.9%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+16
12.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 16 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
6.0%
Jalin Moore run for 31 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:528% → 7%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.7%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
6.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for no gain to the Toled 25 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sami Kassem) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
6.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5395% → 96%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
4.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-3
4.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 22Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+15
4.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Daetrich Harrington for 15 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
3.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 2:056% → 5%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
6.1%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
5.1%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-9
4.8%
Logan Woodside sacked by Eric Boggs and Caleb Fuller for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
5.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, downed at the AppSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:3097% → 99%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
3.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 13 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
3.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
3.1%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
2.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+5
3.1%
Lamb, Taylor pass complete to Lewis, Ike for 2 yards to the TOLEDO33, PENALTY TOLEDO substitution infraction 5 yards to the TOLEDO30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APPALCHAN.Similar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
2.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 26 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
2.3%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the Toled 3Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.8%
Malik Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:021% → 0%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
0.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Art ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+17
0.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 17 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
0.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 8 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+8
0.6%
Art Thompkins run for 8 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
0.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 5 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
0.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-11
0.5%
Logan Woodside sacked by Okon Godwin for a loss of 11 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
0.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:3799% → 100%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
0.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
0.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+24
0.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
50
+12
0.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 12 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
0.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+4
0.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
0.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
0.2%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Darryl RichardsSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Clifton Duck return for no gain to the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
0.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 16 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
0.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
0.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
0.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to T.J. WatkinsSimilar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 6
OPP 17
-3
0.2%
Taylor Lamb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
0.1%
Logan Woodside sacked by Devan Stringer for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
0.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+9
0.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 9 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+44
0.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 44 yds , Clifton Duck returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 36 Clifton Duck fumbled, forced by Justin Clark, recovered by AppSt Tim FrizzellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
DeMarcus Harper run for no gain to the AppSt 36Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
0.1%
DeMarcus Harper run for 7 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-3
0.1%
DeMarcus Harper run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-5
0.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Zac Thomas) to the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:38
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 19
-11.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 12:13
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the AppSt 48
-7.2
TD · Q2 13:51
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com