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SDSU

San Diego State 35 at Army 42

ARMY
2017 · Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Dec 23, 2017 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:41 · Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Pregame prior−7.4Home team on offense+2.5Garbage-time factor−0.9Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:49: Rashaad Penny 49 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick) — SDSU win probability +18.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:25: Ahmad Bradshaw 27 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick) — ARMY win probability +27.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:47: Rashaad Penny 4 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick) — SDSU win probability +28.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:18: Darnell Woolfolk 1 Yd Run (Kell Walker Run for Two-Point Conversion) — ARMY win probability +62.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Elijah Riley 29 Yd Fumble Return — ARMY win probability +15.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:44ARMY 4th & 1 at SDSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:22SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:13SDSU 4th & 30 at SDSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  4. Q3 10:52ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.1%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:41ARMY 4th & 1 at SDSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−5.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:41ARMY 4th & 10 at SDSU 19, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%−2.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    51.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−10.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:36SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:13ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:52SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:50ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:18ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:05SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:49SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:25ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:47SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:18ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 7.4 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.8%−7.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:1168% → 68%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
32.0%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 20
OWN 17
0
32.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Fred TrevillionSimilar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+2
32.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Nick Bawden for 2 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 18
OWN 19
+81
32.2%
Rashaad Penny 81 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:2332% → 33%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
32.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+11
32.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 11 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
32.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+12
32.6%
Andy Davidson run for 12 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
32.7%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
32.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+4
33.0%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
33.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+6
33.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
33.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
32.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the SDSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1668% → 68%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
32.1%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
32.3%
Juwan Washington run for 8 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
32.0%
Juwan Washington run for 1 yd to the SDSt 36Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
32.3%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by John Trainor at the Army 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:5233% → 39%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
32.6%
Andy Davidson run for 9 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+6
33.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
33.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 5
50
+3
33.8%
Calen Holt run for 3 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+12
33.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 12 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
34.5%
Andy Davidson run for 13 yds to the SDSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
34.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
39.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw 19 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:0463% → 70%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
36.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
36.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Quest Truxton for 8 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
36.2%
Juwan Washington run for 27 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
35.6%
Christian Chapman run for no gain to the Army 32Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
30.9%
Rashaad Penny 32 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
30.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Ryan Pope) to the Army 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:2333% → 45%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
32.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Army 31Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+3
33.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
33.6%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Army 35Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+6
33.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
33.8%
Connor Slomka run for 7 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
34.4%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
34.7%
Andy Davidson run for 12 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
34.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the SDSt 34 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, forced by Parker Baldwin, recovered by Army Ahmad BradshawSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+13
35.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 13 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
35.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+10
35.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 23 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (12 Yards) to the SDSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
34.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
44.7%
Darnell Woolfolk 7 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 1:2761% → 59%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
38.7%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 10 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
37.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-15
37.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ryan Pope) to the SDSt 27Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 23
OWN 27
0
39.6%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Quest TruxtonSimilar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 23
OWN 27
-7
40.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 20Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 30
OWN 20
0
41.4%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 33 yds, downed at the Army 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:3345% → 60%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
44.9%
Calen Holt run for 4 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
45.5%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
45.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
46.3%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
46.7%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+8
46.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 8 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
47.7%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the SDSt 25Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+2
48.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+8
47.1%
Fred Cooper Jr. run for 8 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
48.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+8
48.4%
Kell Walker run for 8 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
47.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.7%
Andy Davidson 4 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11DOWNS
22 plays · 47 yds · 11:0845% → 50%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.3%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
45.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
45.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Camden Harrison for 6 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
47.0%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
48.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
48.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Army 45Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
47.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
50.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
51.2%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
51.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+1
49.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
52.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+10
52.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 10 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
53.9%
Connor Slomka run for 5 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
54.3%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the SDSt 24Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+5
53.0%
Jordan Asberry run for 5 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
54.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-10
54.8%
ARMY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rick Kurz) to the SDSt 26Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 17
OPP 26
+7
53.1%
Fred Cooper Jr. run for 7 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
53.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Camden HarrisonSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 10
OPP 19
-9
50.2%
Blake Wilson run for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:4055% → 77%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
45.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+13
43.4%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 13 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
42.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+49
23.2%
Rashaad Penny 49 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2229% → 26%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.2%
Kell Walker run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
29.1%
John Trainor run for 2 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+21
25.8%
Kjetil Cline pass intercepted Anthony Luke return for 21 yds to the Army 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5878% → 81%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
22.0%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the Army 13 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (7 Yards) to the Army 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 0
OPP 6
-15
20.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Daishawn Dixon) to the Army 21Similar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 0
OPP 21
+2
19.4%
Juwan Washington run for 2 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 0
OPP 19
+11
19.1%
Christian Chapman pass intercepted Alex Aukerman return for 11 yds to the Army 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:3626% → 58%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
26.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Army 22Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+7
26.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+6
26.0%
Connor Slomka run for 6 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
28.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
31.0%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
31.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+5
30.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
30.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
31.4%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+27
58.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw 27 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:4357% → 88%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
43.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 18 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
41.3%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+9
41.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
41.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Army 20Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+6
41.0%
Juwan Washington run for 6 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
40.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the Army 11Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+7
40.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the Army 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
11.8%
Rashaad Penny 4 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD
18 plays · 72 yds · 5:1520% → 90%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
20.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+8
20.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
21.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to John TrainorSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
21.2%
Andy Davidson run for 10 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
23.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+1
25.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+14
24.7%
Kell Walker run for 14 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
26.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the SDSt 26Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-12
25.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the SDSt 23 ARMY Penalty, Personal Foul (Kell Walker) to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+9
17.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+14
20.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 14 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
24.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the SDSt 15Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+12
23.3%
Kell Walker run for 12 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
24.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.0%
Darnell Woolfolk 1 Yd Run (Kell Walker Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0726% → 8%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
73.8%
Christian Chapman sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 30 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 20
OWN 30
-29
92.5%
Elijah Riley 29 Yd Fumble Return Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:18
Darnell Woolfolk 1 Yd Run (Kell Walker Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+62.9
TD · Q4 5:47
Rashaad Penny 4 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)
-28.3
TD · Q4 9:25
Ahmad Bradshaw 27 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)
+27
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com