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TTU

Texas Tech 34 at South Florida 38

USF
2017 · Birmingham Bowl · Dec 23, 2017 · Legion Field
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:37 · Quinton Flowers run for 29 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Vaughnte Dorsey) to the TexTc 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Home team on offense−6.9Pregame prior+2.1Garbage-time factor−5.3Score differential−3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 9:30: Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +28.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 5:02: Clayton Hatfield 33 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +17.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:26: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 64 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +45.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:31: Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 25 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +65.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:16: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 26 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +74.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:47TTU 4th & 4 at USF 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12USF 4th & 3 at TTU 7, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:23TTU 4th & 3 at USF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:22USF 4th & 8 at USF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16USF 4th & 6 at TTU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:49TTU 4th & 5 at USF 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:52USF 4th & 3 at USF 8, down 7
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:39USF 4th & 4 at USF 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:15TTU 4th & 23 at TTU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−3.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:51TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−2.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:51USF 4th & 1 at TTU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−3.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−15.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:47TTU 4th & 7 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:37USF 4th & 2 at TTU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−1.9
    88% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−15.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:58USF 4th & 1 at TTU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−5.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−19.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:37TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:02TTU 4th & 5 at USF 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−24.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:34TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:51USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:25TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:34USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:55TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:30USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:26USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−1.8
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:31TTU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−4.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:16USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.7 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 3:5241% → 42%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
58.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 7 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
58.7%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
58.7%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Tre KingSimilar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+26
58.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 26 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
58.5%
Tre King run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
58.4%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+13
58.6%
Justin Stockton run for 13 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
58.4%
Justin Stockton run for 3 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
58.3%
Justin Stockton run for 3 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
58.4%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
58.3%
Clayton Hatfield 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:3159% → 59%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
58.6%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
58.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
58.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
58.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Temi AlakaSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
58.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+25
58.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 25 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
59.1%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Broderick Washington Jr.) to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
59.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 8Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+1
59.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Eric Mayes for 1 yd to the TexTc 7Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
58.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
59.2%
Emilio Nadelman 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:4441% → 41%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.6%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.6%
Tre King run for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+37
58.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 37 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
57.5%
Tre King run for 5 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
57.4%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Tre KingSimilar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+2
57.7%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 3
OPP 25
-10
58.6%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Deadrin Senat for a loss of 10 yards to the SFla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5259% → 59%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
59.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
59.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
59.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+17
58.7%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 46 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 17 yds to the TexTc 34 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Desmon Smith) to the TexTc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 3:4341% → 49%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
58.9%
Justin Stockton run for 11 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
58.8%
Shimonek, Nic pass incomplete to Vasher, T.J., PENALTY SOUFLA holding (Culpepper, Naytron) 10 yards to the TEXASTECH40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.2%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
58.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+20
58.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 20 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
57.6%
Shimonek, Nic pass complete to Cantrell, Dylan for 7 yards to the SOUFLA35, PENALTY TEXASTECH holding 7 yards to the SOUFLA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 17
OPP 49
+15
57.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tre King for 15 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+1
56.7%
Tre King run for 1 yd to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
57.1%
Tre King run for 2 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
56.7%
Shimonek, Nic pass incomplete to Cantrell, Dylan, PENALTY SOUFLA offside (Kegler, Kevin) 5 yards to the SOUFLA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+21
56.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 21 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
56.5%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q1 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
51.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 5 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 1:5453% → 54%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
53.3%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+4
53.5%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+5
53.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 5 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
53.5%
Darius Tice run for 11 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
54.3%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+6
54.8%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
54.6%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
54.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
54.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
53.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2249% → 50%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.5%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
51.8%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+15
52.1%
Shimonek, Nic pass sacked for loss of 11 yards to the TEXASTECH25 (Hector, Bruce), PENALTY SOUFLA personal foul (Hector, Bruce) 15 yards to the SOUFLA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASTECH.Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
50.5%
Keke Coutee run for 2 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-7
50.1%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Deadrin Senat for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 46Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+5
51.5%
Shimonek, Nic pass incomplete, PENALTY SOUFLA offside (Love, Mike) 5 yards to the SOUFLA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+5
50.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 5 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
50.5%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 43 yds, downed at the SFla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4851% → 49%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
51.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
51.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 4Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+4
49.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
49.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 47 yds , Cameron Batson returns for no gain to the TexTc 45 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Octavious Morgan) to the TexTc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9INT
11 plays · 58 yds · 5:0251% → 57%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
49.4%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
47.1%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
46.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 8 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
45.7%
Tre King run for 7 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+21
45.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 21 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
44.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+19
44.6%
Cameron Batson run for 19 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
44.3%
Tre King run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 3Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
43.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tyler Carr for 1 yd to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
44.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Dylan Cantrell) to the SFla 7Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+18
42.9%
Nic Shimonek pass intercepted by Jaymon Thomas, return for 18 yds to the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:2147% → 45%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
46.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+4
46.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+4
45.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
46.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
46.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
45.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+8
45.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 50 yds , Cameron Batson returns for 8 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 0:2456% → 56%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
44.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Terence Steele) to the TexTc 18Similar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+2
44.2%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 13
OWN 20
0
43.3%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 13
OWN 20
-10
44.1%
Nic Shimonek sacked by Deadrin Senat for a loss of 10 yards to the TexTc 10Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 23
OWN 10
0
44.0%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0949% → 63%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
48.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
62.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 21 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:2548% → 50%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
51.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
52.7%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 11 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
50.4%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+22
50.5%
Nic Shimonek pass intercepted Devin Abraham return for 7 yds to the SFla 38 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin Abraham) to the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
58.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2159% → 59%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.0%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
59.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 28 Quinton Flowers fumbled, forced by Kolin Hill, recovered by TexTc Damarcus FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4549% → 62%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
50.8%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+2
51.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 2 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+15
52.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 15 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
50.5%
Tre King run for 8 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
50.5%
Desmond Nisby run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 3Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.9%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 3 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 2:3742% → 65%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
42.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 6 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
42.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 3 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+6
41.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
42.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
43.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+26
44.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 26 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
48.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
47.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+15
44.9%
Flowers, Quinton pass incomplete to Valdes-Scantling, Marquez, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference 15 yards to the TEXASTECH17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
47.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
65.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 17 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:1945% → 42%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
55.0%
Tre King run for 1 yd to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
55.1%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
56.7%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+1
57.7%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 39 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
60.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 13 yds Tyre McCants fumbled, forced by Kolin Hill, recovered by TexTc Kolin HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:2348% → 67%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
51.7%
Justin Stockton run for 24 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
50.2%
Justin Stockton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+13
50.3%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Tyler Carr for 13 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
32.9%
Tre King run for 4 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:5541% → 43%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.0%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
43.1%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+43
41.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 43 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
47.2%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the TexTc 15Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+2
47.0%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+1
44.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 12Similar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
42.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the TexTc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:4864% → 67%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
35.6%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 14Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+33
35.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 33 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
31.6%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Antoine Wesley for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 7
50
0
30.4%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 7
50
0
30.9%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 7
50
0
32.9%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 40 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 89 yds · 2:4338% → 38%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
38.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 13 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+30
38.4%
Tyre McCants run for 30 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
43.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
42.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+1
40.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 39Similar
Q4 14:37
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+34
38.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 29 yds to the TexTc 10 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Vaughnte Dorsey) to the TexTc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
43.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
43.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Eric Mayes) to the TexTc 10Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
43.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q4 14:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
40.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.6%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the TexTc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0969% → 67%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
31.2%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 2Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
31.2%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+4
31.8%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 6Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
32.7%
Dominic Panazzolo punt for 37 yds, downed at the TexTc 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:5839% → 68%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
38.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-5
41.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Temi Alaka) to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
38.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 11 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
41.1%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
38.6%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
36.5%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
38.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 18 yds to the TexTc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
39.4%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 5Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 4:1745% → 71%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Quan Shorts for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
53.2%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
55.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 10 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
51.4%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
52.4%
Justin Stockton run for 11 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
48.7%
Nic Shimonek run for 2 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+12
47.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 12 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
45.4%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
45.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 14 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
44.7%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
45.0%
Justin Stockton run for 5 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
46.8%
Nic Shimonek pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
29.3%
Clayton Hatfield 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3441% → 87%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
40.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+64
86.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 64 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 2:2916% → 89%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
83.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Justin Stockton for 11 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
83.5%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 7 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
81.4%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 4 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.0%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
83.6%
Nic Shimonek pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+28
86.2%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Keke Coutee for 28 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
76.8%
Justin Stockton run for 10 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
11.0%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 25 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:0931% → 96%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 12 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
29.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 8 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-5
28.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
24.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
27.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
26.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+21
22.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 21 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
96.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 26 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:0616% → 20%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
83.8%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to Cameron Batson for 9 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+34
80.1%
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 34 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:16
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 26 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
+74.3
TD · Q4 1:31
Nic Shimonek pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 25 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-65.8
TD · Q4 4:26
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 64 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
+45.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com