Try the model
MRSH

Marshall 31 at Colorado State 28

CSU
2017 · Gildan New Mexico Bowl · Dec 16, 2017 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+30.8CSU 50.7%Nick Stevens run for 1 yd for a TD,(Wyatt Bryan KICK)AWAY 31 - HOME 28 · Q4 6:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:37 · Nick Stevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense+0.1Pregame prior+1.4Score differential−1.8Garbage-time factor−4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:41: Nick Stevens run for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:55: Keion Davis run for 68 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +11.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:12: Tyler King run for 90 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +14.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:55: Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 24 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +19.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:37: Nick Stevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +30.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:10MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:06CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:00CSU 4th & 14 at MRSH 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:40CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:22CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:12MRSH 4th & 20 at MRSH 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−3.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:45CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:26CSU 4th & 8 at MRSH 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:16CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:10MRSH 4th & 4 at CSU 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−10.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:55CSU 4th & 12 at CSU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−2.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:16MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:56CSU 4th & 12 at MRSH 43, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    19.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:48MRSH 4th & 7 at CSU 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.7%−2.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:18MRSH 4th & 3 at midfield, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.2 ptsPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−4.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:46CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.4%−6.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 14:29MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:17CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:07MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:41CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:55MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:12MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:55CSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:37CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:4337% → 37%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
63.3%
Chase Litton run for 14 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
63.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 6 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+1
63.2%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
63.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+26
63.2%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the COLOST 13 MARSHALL Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jestin Morrow) to the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:4963% → 63%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
63.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 4 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
63.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
63.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
63.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
63.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
63.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
63.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3537% → 37%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
63.2%
Tyler King run for 4 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
63.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 5 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
62.9%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
63.0%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
62.8%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
63.0%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
63.2%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 47 yds, downed at the ColSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:1263% → 62%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
63.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+21
63.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 21 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
63.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-7
63.8%
Nick Stevens sacked by Davon Durant and Juwon Young for a loss of 7 yards to the COLOST 44 COLORADO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nick Stevens) to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+15
63.0%
Stevens, Nick pass incomplete to Gallup, Michael, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (Jackson, Chris) 15 yards to the MARSHALL41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLOST.Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
64.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 42Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 11
OPP 42
-3
63.0%
Nick Stevens sacked by Marquis Couch for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 45Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
62.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:4438% → 39%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
62.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 14 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
61.8%
Keion Davis run for 12 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
61.0%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 47Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+10
60.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 10 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
60.2%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (Jordan Dowrey) to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 15
OPP 48
-3
60.7%
Chase Litton sacked by Max McDonald for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 18
OWN 49
0
61.1%
Chase Litton pass intercepted Jordan Fogal return for no gain to the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:2562% → 61%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
62.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 7 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+7
62.4%
Darius May run for 7 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
62.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 12 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
62.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Darius MaySimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
62.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
61.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Detrich ClarkSimilar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
61.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7TD
1 play · 76 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
55.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 76 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 6:0555% → 65%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
55.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
54.7%
Stevens, Nick pass complete to Matthews, Izzy for 4 yards to the COLOST36, PENALTY COLOST illegal formation 5 yards to the COLOST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
53.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 9 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
54.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
55.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
55.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 8 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
55.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-1
55.8%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 46Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+18
54.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 18 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
56.0%
Matthews, Izzy rush for 5 yards to the MARSHALL23, PENALTY MARSHALL substitution infraction 5 yards to the MARSHALL23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+6
55.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
55.8%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the Marsh 17Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
55.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+12
54.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 12 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
55.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 5 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0341% → 53%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.3%
Tyler King run for 6 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
59.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 4 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+47
58.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 47 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
55.2%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
46.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 15 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1749% → 67%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
49.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 48 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
53.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
53.2%
Stevens, Nick pass incomplete to Johnson, Olabisi, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (Allen, Rodney) 13 yards to the MARSHALL14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLOST.Similar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
55.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 5 yds to the Marsh 9Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
66.8%
Nick Stevens run for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3740% → 52%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 7 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
48.2%
Keion Davis run for 68 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2450% → 47%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
49.8%
Nick Stevens sacked by Blake Keller for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
49.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+6
48.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
47.2%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:0455% → 53%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
44.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-11
45.1%
Chase Litton sacked by Evan Colorito for a loss of 11 yards to the Marsh 31Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 21
OWN 31
+1
47.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyler King for 1 yd to the Marsh 32Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 20
OWN 32
0
47.3%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 37 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for no gain to the ColSt 32 MARSHALL Penalty, Personal Foul (Ryan Yurachek) to the ColSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2250% → 47%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
50.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
48.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Rodney AllenSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
48.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
47.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
45.4%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2946% → 44%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
45.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+17
46.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
50
+2
48.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
48.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
46.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
43.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17TD
1 play · 90 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
29.7%
Tyler King run for 90 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4930% → 28%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
30.4%
Clark, Detrich rush for 8 yards to the COLOST33, PENALTY COLOST holding (Garcia, Nicho) 10 yards to the COLOST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
29.8%
Nick Stevens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
28.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 9 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
28.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
27.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 5:5575% → 86%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
25.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 9 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
24.1%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
22.9%
Keion Davis run for 8 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
21.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyler King, broken up by Jordan FogalSimilar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
22.1%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
21.2%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+17
19.7%
Keion Davis run for 17 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
19.0%
Chase Litton sacked by Josh Watson for a loss of 10 yards to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 20
OPP 40
-5
19.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, Sideline Interference (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 25
OPP 45
+25
19.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 25 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
17.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 12 yds to the ColSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
16.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Hyleck FosterSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
16.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q3 4:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
16.7%
Chase Litton run for 4 yds to the ColSt 4Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
14.3%
Kaare Vedvik 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:0518% → 15%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
18.3%
Detrich Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
17.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 10 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
18.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
17.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
16.5%
Detrich Clark run for no gain to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
15.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+1
15.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 50 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 1 yd to the Marsh 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3291% → 92%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
9.2%
Chase Litton run for 1 yd to the Marsh 18Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+1
8.6%
Tyler King run for 1 yd to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+4
8.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 4 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
8.0%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 56 yds , Olabisi Johnson returns for no gain to the ColSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:1412% → 31%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
11.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 21 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
11.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 10 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
11.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Detrich ClarkSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+24
11.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 24 yds to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
31.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 24 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4577% → 77%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
23.3%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
22.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-1
22.8%
Chase Litton pass intercepted Anthony Hawkins return for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5426% → 21%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
25.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Detrich ClarkSimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
24.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-2
23.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 43Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 12
OPP 43
-8
20.6%
Nick Stevens sacked by Channing Hames for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0082% → 84%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
18.5%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
18.1%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
15.3%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
16.4%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:0417% → 51%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
17.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 11 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
17.5%
Nick Stevens sacked by Frankie Hernandez and Marquis Couch for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+9
15.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 9 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+10
15.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 10 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
16.8%
Stevens, Nick pass incomplete to Johnson, Olabisi, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (Allen, Rodney) 15 yards to the MARSHALL46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLOST.Similar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+40
18.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 40 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
20.1%
Stevens, Nick pass incomplete to Gallup, Michael, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (Gant, Malik) 4 yards to the MARSHALL2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLOST.Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
19.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the Marsh 1Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.7%
Nick Stevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:0567% → 75%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
33.3%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 24Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
31.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 8 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
29.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 11 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
25.9%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
25.5%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 3
50
0
22.6%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 3
50
0
24.6%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 34 yds, downed at the ColSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 1:1337% → 29%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
37.0%
Stevens, Nick pass sacked for loss of 8 yards to the COLOST8 (Hames, Channing), fumble forced by Hames, Channing, fumble by Stevens, Nick recovered by MARSHALL Johnson, Nazeeh at COLOST13, Johnson, Nazeeh for 7 yards to the COLOST6, PENALTY MARSHALL holding (Allen, Rodney) 10 yards to the COLOST26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLOST.Similar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
37.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Detrich ClarkSimilar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
33.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+13
28.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 13 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
32.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
32.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
29.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+5
26.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marquis Couch) to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 5
OWN 44
-1
28.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nick Stevens for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 29END OF GAME
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:3789% → 94%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
10.6%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
9.7%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+8
10.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 8 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
8.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-1
5.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-1
5.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:37
Nick Stevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+30.8
TD · Q4 12:55
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 24 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+19.6
TD · Q3 12:12
Tyler King run for 90 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com