Try the model
BOIS

Boise State 38 at Oregon 28

ORE
2017 · Las Vegas Bowl · Dec 16, 2017 · Sam Boyd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+13.9ORE 22.3%Brenden Schooler 24 Yd pass fromJustin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick)AWAY 31 - HOME 21 · Q4 10:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:07 · Brenden Schooler 24 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Home team on offense−17.2Pregame prior+3.5Score differential−8.4Garbage-time factor−8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:11: Kekaula Kaniho 53 Yd Interception Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +9.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:37: Troy Dye 86 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +6.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:07: Tyree Robinson 100 Yd Interception Return (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +8.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:41: Alec Dhaenens 13 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick) — BOIS win probability +15.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:07: Brenden Schooler 24 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +13.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:29ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24BOIS 4th & 2 at ORE 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:47ORE 4th & 20 at ORE 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55BOIS 4th & 14 at ORE 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−5.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:55ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:59BOIS 4th & 5 at ORE 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−7.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:05BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−2.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:21ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−3.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:00ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 28, down 17
    Close callPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:04BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:58ORE 4th & 20 at BOIS 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−2.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:25BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00ORE 4th & 7 at BOIS 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:01BOIS 4th & 3 at midfield, up 17
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:20ORE 4th & 1 at BOIS 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−2.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−6.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:12BOIS 4th & 18 at BOIS 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−5.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:41ORE 4th & 17 at ORE 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:12ORE 4th & 8 at BOIS 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:17BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:21BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:11BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:37ORE Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:07ORE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:41BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:07ORE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:22BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:12ORE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2371% → 70%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
70.7%
Jaylon Redd run for 5 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
70.6%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
70.4%
Adam Stack punt for 37 yds , Avery Williams returns for 4 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 5:0530% → 34%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
70.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Ryan Wolpin for 13 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
70.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 11 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
70.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 7 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
69.9%
Robert Mahone run for no gain to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+8
69.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 8 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
69.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
69.5%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Doug Brenner) to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+10
69.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 10 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
69.2%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
69.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+8
69.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 8 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+4
69.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 4 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.8%
Ryan Wolpin run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.4%
Ryan Wolpin 1 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:2467% → 66%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
67.1%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cam McCormick) to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
66.9%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
66.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
66.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Kani Benoit for no gain to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
65.7%
Adam Stack punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4INT
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:3534% → 37%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
65.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+50
65.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 50 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
64.7%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+8
64.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 8 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
63.9%
Ryan Wolpin run for no gain to the Oregn 3Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.7%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 2Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
63.4%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted, touchback. Arrion Springs return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1965% → 64%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
64.5%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+16
64.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 16 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
65.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-11
63.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for a loss of 11 yards Tony Brooks-James fumbled, forced by Leighton Vander Esch, recovered by BoiSt Jabril FrazierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:0938% → 44%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
61.9%
Cedrick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+8
61.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 8 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+26
56.3%
Cedrick Wilson 26 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:2857% → 57%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-6
56.9%
Justin Herbert sacked by Kekaula Kaniho for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 21 Justin Herbert fumbled, forced by Kekaula Kaniho, recovered by BoiSt Tyson Maeva , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8MISSED FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4645% → 44%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
55.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
54.8%
Cedrick Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
54.9%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 20
-5
55.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+42
55.8%
Haden Hoggarth 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5556% → 55%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.2%
Kani Benoit run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
56.4%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
54.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 9 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
55.5%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
55.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 6 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
55.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Cam McCormickSimilar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
55.0%
Adam Stack punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 3:5147% → 58%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
52.8%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
52.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Octavius EvansSimilar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+10
52.8%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Deommodore Lenoir) to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
51.8%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+9
50.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 9 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
49.4%
Cedrick Wilson run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
48.6%
Robert Mahone run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
50
0
48.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alec DhaenensSimilar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+23
48.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Octavius Evans for 8 yds to the OREGON 42 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Roughing Passer (Troy Dye) to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
46.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John BatesSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
47.0%
Ryan Wolpin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
46.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
41.7%
Haden Hoggarth 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4446% → 46%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
45.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
44.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 9 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
46.6%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
46.6%
Justin Herbert run for 1 yd to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-2
45.5%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Jordan Happle return for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5861% → 60%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
38.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Octavius EvansSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
39.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ryan Wolpin for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
38.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
39.7%
Quinn Skillin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13INT TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:4843% → 34%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
42.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 6 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+16
43.0%
Justin Herbert run for 16 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
44.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 3 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+53
34.4%
Kekaula Kaniho 53 Yd Interception Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4433% → 30%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.5%
Jaylon Redd run for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
32.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 1 yd to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-9
31.0%
Justin Herbert sacked by Leighton Vander Esch for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
29.6%
Adam Stack punt for 37 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 35 Avery Williams fumbled, recovered by BoiSt DeAndre PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:2869% → 73%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
31.2%
Robert Mahone run for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+16
32.1%
Robert Mahone run for 16 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
30.0%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+15
23.3%
OREGON Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Jalen Jelks) to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
22.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 8 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+3
20.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-86
27.0%
Troy Dye 86 Yd Fumble Return (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16INT TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:1666% → 58%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+65
33.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 65 yds to the Oregn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+100
41.9%
Tyree Robinson 100 Yd Interception Return (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1155% → 79%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.5%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
44.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Ryan Wolpin for 9 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
43.4%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
42.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 7 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
41.7%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
40.8%
Robert Mahone run for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+30
41.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 30 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
39.6%
Robert Mahone run for 6 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
39.2%
Robert Mahone run for no gain to the Oregn 20Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+5
37.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 5 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
36.6%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
21.5%
Alec Dhaenens 13 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3026% → 24%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
25.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 8 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+1
26.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-2
25.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
24.0%
Adam Stack punt for 42 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 28 BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Jermani Brown) to the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5078% → 78%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
22.0%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
21.4%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Alec DhaenensSimilar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
21.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+36
22.1%
Joel Velazquez punt for 51 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 18 BOISE ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brock Barr) to the Oregn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:0125% → 21%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
25.0%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+12
23.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 12 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
24.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 9 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 37
-2
24.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+9
24.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 9 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
24.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Brenden SchoolerSimilar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-9
23.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 24 OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tony Brooks-James) to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 19
OPP 39
-1
21.5%
Justin Herbert sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 20
OPP 40
0
20.5%
Adam Stack punt for 37 yds, downed at the BoiSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2783% → 86%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
16.6%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Thomas Graham Jr.) to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
16.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
16.3%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+1
16.3%
Brett Rypien run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
13.8%
Joel Velazquez punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1019% → 16%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
18.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darrian Felix for 8 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
19.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darrian Felix for no gain to the Oregn 43Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
19.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 5 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
18.6%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
17.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Kani Benoit for no gain to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
16.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
16.2%
Adam Stack punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5389% → 91%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
10.8%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
10.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 10 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
9.5%
Ryan Wolpin run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
8.4%
Ryan Wolpin run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
8.1%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+3
8.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 3
50
+15
8.7%
Quinn Skillin punt for 43 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 15 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:4810% → 22%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
9.5%
Justin Herbert run for 15 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
9.5%
Jaylon Redd run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
50
+14
9.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 14 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
8.5%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+7
9.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 7 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
8.9%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+3
8.4%
Justin Herbert run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
22.3%
Brenden Schooler 24 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5083% → 82%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.2%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. RichardsonSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
18.2%
Brett Rypien sacked by Justin Hollins for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 17Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
17.9%
Quinn Skillin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2219% → 14%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
18.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 13 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
19.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 8 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
19.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-5
19.3%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-10
18.2%
Justin Herbert sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 10 yards to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
14.3%
Adam Stack punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 28TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 5:1385% → 98%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
15.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+2
14.1%
Ryan Wolpin run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+22
13.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 22 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
10.7%
Ryan Wolpin run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+11
10.3%
Robert Mahone run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
9.5%
Robert Mahone run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
9.3%
Brett Rypien run for 4 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+41
9.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 41 yds to the Oregn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
7.8%
Ryan Wolpin run for 6 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.5%
Ryan Wolpin run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.0%
Ryan Wolpin 1 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:521% → 3%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+67
1.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 67 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.2%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.1%
Charles Nelson run for no gain to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.1%
OREGON Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
3.3%
Jaylon Redd 8 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3596% → 96%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-1
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:41
Alec Dhaenens 13 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)
-15.1
TD · Q4 10:07
Brenden Schooler 24 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick)
+13.9
TD · Q2 5:11
Kekaula Kaniho 53 Yd Interception Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com